Recruiting Rankings

[CamrnCrz1974]

Scout (remember that site?) just released its rankings for the Class of 2014 (boys). Knowing that rankings are subjective and each service uses different criteria in its evaluations, I asked the Scout evaluators (Brian Snow, Evan Daniels, etc.) what they considered in ranking players and giving out "stars."

Giving recruiting rankings are the subject of much debate on this board, I thought I would share the response I received with you. Obviously, the Scout rankings are for boys high school basketball, not girls, but I thought some of you might be interested in the comments from one recruiting service:

My question:
How much do you factor in potential/upside in the rankings? Are the rankings more of a reflection of where a player is now (relative to his peers), with a small allowance factored in for upside/potential? Is that even a consideration?

I always seem to get into debates with people who question rankings several years ex post facto. Obviously, your rankings cannot account for things like how a player develops under a certain college coach (and, conversely, how a player fails to respond or improve while working under another coach), whether a player is able to adjust to the college environment, the maturation process, etc.

Response (from Brian Snow):
We aren't ranking what a player is now and we aren't ranking what a player could be. We are ranking what we think a player will be. Does that take potential into account, of course, but it isn't all about potential. You have to be productive as well.

 

[speedoo]

Good question, Cam. I thought the response was totally inadequate and condescending.

 

[sarals24]

So...both? Neither?

 

[Vowelguy]

Actually was somewhat clear to me.

My take:
- Every player has a range of possible outcomes.
- We're not going to go with the most optimistic outcome ("what a player could be"), but what we think is the most likely one ("what a player will be").

 

[CamrnCrz1974]

Follow-up Question (from another poster):
Quick follow up and thanks for answering so dutifully, Brian. When you say you are ranking what you think a player WILL be, you mean you are projecting what that player will be on the COLLEGE level, correct?

Response (from Brian Snow):
We make no distinction, when you are as good as you can be, whether that means college or pro, we don't care. Quite simply we just say to ourselves, who from this class will be the best basketball players when they are done playing basketball. We don't subscribe to the theory that you can magically be better in the NBA than you are in college. It is easier to be better in college than the NBA, now for whatever reason some guys excel in college that don't in the NBA, and some guys tend to bloom later and become better in the NBA than maybe they projected in college, but we just define it as who will be better.

 

[sarals24]

That is so confusing to me...do they mean better in the sense that their team will be more successful? Or they will be a better one on one player? Or a better all around player? Or better by position? How can you really rank a point guard next to a center and say one is better than the other? Maybe a team desperately needs a point guard, etc.

This is why rankings are fun...for the arguments!

 

[johnhuskies95]

That is so confusing to me...do they mean better in the sense that their team will be more successful? Or they will be a better one on one player? Or a better all around player? Or better by position? How can you really rank a point guard next to a center and say one is better than the other? Maybe a team desperately needs a point guard, etc.

This is why rankings are fun...for the arguments!

They're measuring the player's most likely potential impact on the game.

Given that basketball is now really guard dominated, a guard is going to often times impact a game more than a center.

 

[MarieM]

about 2 years ago (on the boys side) Kuran Iverson (from Hartford CT) was ranked #1 in the nation by ESPN Rivals etc etc.. now he's a Junior in HS he is ranked between the (20-60)...