Couldn’t agree more. Especially considering Hurley’s recruitment of the portal is the reason we are in this Final Four.
Recruiting is a crapshoot. The amount of time coaches get to observe games and interact with players is too limited to get an accurate assessment. Add in that most players still need more time to develop physically, skill wise and/or emotionally and you have to extrapolate where they might be in two to five years. That is mostly guest work. Definitely not a science. Even the best coaches end up with players that don't pan out like they hoped. Rahsool was one such player. Obviously there are a handful of hs players who have completed or nearly completed their development. But those numbers are small and only a few programs end up with them.
The transfer portal in its current rendition takes a lot out of the guesswork in projecting development. Programs can now observe that development in transfers and instantly repair weaknesses or augment strengths. They still have some guesswork as to whether the player can adapt to their system and if they can integrate as well with new players as their former teammates. So there is still chances for failures but that guesswork was there with high school players in additions to the aforementioned guesses.
One additional unrelated thing is that NILs allow programs to provide monies that can attract players at the expense of cheating boosters/agents.
My theory has been we would see more college parity as a result. The truly outstanding coaches should come to the fore and leap over those who had a cheating advantage. There still is not enough information as of yet to validate my theory and certainly players staying longer in programs as a result of Covid will need to be eliminated to properly determine this hypothesis. But I like where we stand with Hurley! Time will tell if he can provide a relatively consistent record.
I have spoken!