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I agree with your entire post. But I'd amend this paragraph a little. You're clearly right about Aubrey, and (by the way) I can see Ayanna contributing in similar ways even in transition. But I think Geno does want to have 5 scorers on the floor at all times, and he wants them to be versatile scorers, not just one-weapon scorers. He reported saying as much to Jana this season, that if she doesn't take elbow jumpers occasionally, opposing teams won't defend her outside the low post. This was a liability. Folks on the BY used to say the same thing about Nika in her first two seasons, that she simply didn't take enough shots to force teams to come out to guard her. And she addressed this in her final two years, improving her 3-pt shooting and her finishing at the rim. These were also keys to her record-setting assists year.
I think we can say something similar about Aubrey's best seasons: she started taking (and making) the occasional 3-pt shot. Her role in transition was obvious. But in the half court offense she was not always able to be effective until after a shot had been taken. Then she could be her usual Tasmanian devil on the offensive glass. But that would often limit her usefulness to an overly narrow window of opportunity. This is one reason Geno preferred having her come off the bench rather than start. He didn't want to restrict the range of offensive threats on the floor for too long.
I'd amend that statement to read, UConn doesn't need five perimeter shooters on the floor at all times. But I think Geno wants five scorers -- versatile scorers -- on the floor as much as possible. This clearly favors Carol and Blanca (and Sarah, of course) over Ayanna. What keeps her on the floor as a valuable asset will be her rebounding and defense and whatever putbacks and back cuts she score on. This will be enough, in my estimation, to give her some important minutes.
The comparison to Kiah Stokes is illuminating, I think. When she was on the floor, Kiah limited the offense to 4 scorers plus whatever putbacks she could get. Geno worried about this. But he had great scorers elsewhere on the floor, and because even double-teamed, Stewie was still a scorer and could pass so dazzlingly well that the other scorers were threats even with Kiah not occupying a defender. This made the tradeoff worthwhile. And Kiah's shot blocking, defense and rebounding were important too.
Ayanna can play a similar role, especially with Azzi, Sarah and Serah on the floor. Both Sarah and Serah can score even against double-teams and, depending on who the fifth player is, there can be 3 perimeter shooters on the floor at once. You can see why KK needs to improve her perimeter shooting so she can be the fifth player in this lineup. But this is also why Carol and Allie and Ash could be better contributors to such a lineup even if they aren't the rebounders and defenders Ayanna is.
This post is already way too long. But the questions are so compelling and complex that it's hard to keep it short. Plus, I'm very confident Geno has more tricks up his sleeve than I can think of to make the best use of his players. What this season shows is not that he favors a small-ball lineup, but that he figures out ever new configurations to suit the team he has. He's not looking for eternal truths of basketball. He's solving particular problems. Other teams will figure out a response to the small-ball lineup soon enough. Geno will also figure out a new form of lineup with his current players just as bedeviling as that one was.
Edited to add: Dawn won one NC and competed for 2 others while playing Victaria Saxton at the 4 next to Aliyah Boston. Saxton was as limited a player on offense as Ayanna (or Kiah), but she was a great defender and rebounder, and this was enough to get them an NC. I'd put Ayanna's potential a notch above Saxton's merely because she's bigger and stronger.
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