Rankings next week - lots of ranked teams lost..

[LoTrader]

The committee does (or at least can) consider "early competition versus late competition": Women's Basketball Selections 101 - Selections

But that doesn't mean ignoring the first half of the season either. They judge the entire body of work.

For Oregon State that nonconference SOS is an albatross: #253. That spells ouch. The only team in the top 60 with a lower NCSOS is ... Minnesota.

Thanks Plebe. What would be your top 16 in the reveal tonight?

 

[LoTrader]

For the most part, today's AP Ranking is about right as I too subscribe more to Massey and my eye test on recent play. Some teams are not trending well but their Massey ranking warrants where they are at the moment. Tennessee, Maryland, Duke, ASU all have tough games left and will probably drop more. I honestly think only 1 Big 10 should be in the top 16 and tOSU has the easiest schedule left.

Tonight's reveal will be interesting for Baylor, ND, Louisville and Oregon as all want to avoid the #2 seed in Albany.

Some teams are trending very well and will get good seeds in their Conference Tourney's-Miami, LSU, Minnesota, Georgia will improve their ranking this week.
Some curious comments I feel:

• I don't see USF as a top 20 team. They will have 1 more loss coming and are at best a #6 seed.
• I think SC at #7 overall is a reach as well. They should a be #3 at best (9-11) and their games against LSU/Tenn this week may help or hurt. I get that as the 2nd best team in the SEC, the committee will over-seed them but I take Oregon, FSU and UCLA ahead of them.
• Miami is coming on and should get the #4 seed in the ACC along with a double bye.

I am sad that UCF lost in OT yesterday as that would have helped their NCAA cause. I think they are "dead man walking now" regardless of their AAC Tourney and are NIT bound unless, of course, they win the AAC...

Our conference is still feeble no matter how we slice it. Hopefully our subs continue their evolution from yesterday and showing well against USF would be a good boost.

I believe it will be University of Oregon that will be in UCONN's bracket as #2 seed (if they stay as a #2 seed).

 

[Plebe]

Thanks Plebe. What would be your top 16 in the reveal tonight?

Well, funny you should ask ... because I started a separate thread with my predicted top 16 (note that this is my prediction of what the committee will say, not my personal top 16).

 

[LoTrader]

The committee does (or at least can) consider "early competition versus late competition": Women's Basketball Selections 101 - Selections

But that doesn't mean ignoring the first half of the season either. They judge the entire body of work.

For Oregon State that nonconference SOS is an albatross: #253. That spells ouch. The only team in the top 60 with a lower NCSOS is ... Minnesota.

Thanks for the link. Oregon State fares well in most of the criteria. They have a BAD loss if the committee considers a 35 point loss to UCLA (early in the season) a bad loss. Other than NCSOS, OSU looks like a strong candidate for a top 16 today.

 

[Jim]

That isn't what transitivity means.

Sure it is. If you have teams A, B, and C, and you infer an attribute of A based upon the relationship between B and C via A's relationship with B, you implicitly infer something about A and C (for, say, ranking purposes). That's transitivity.

 

[Plebe]

Sure it is. If you have teams A, B, and C, and you infer an attribute of A based upon the relationship between B and C via A's relationship with B, you implicitly infer something about A and C (for, say, ranking purposes). That's transitivity.

This isn't true. Transitivity is inferring something about the relationship between A and C based on the relationship between A and B and the relationship between B and C. Transitivity in math is "if A = B and B = C then A = C" or "if A > B and B > C then A > C." The RPI neither assumes nor concludes that Team A is better than Team C just because it beat a team (Team B) that Team C lost to.

 

[Phil]

This isn't true. Transitivity is inferring something about the relationship between A and C based on the relationship between A and B and the relationship between B and C. Transitivity in math is "if A = B and B = C then A = C" or "if A > B and B > C then A > C." The RPI neither assumes nor concludes that Team A is better than Team C just because it beat a team (Team B) that Team C lost to.

Precisely.

While it is likely that a computer based model predicting that A beats B and B beats C will predict that A beats C, under many circumstances, there are important exceptions. The likelihood might explain why people tend to think of computer based models as transitive, (although I have never, ever heard anyone say that before), it is an output, not an input, and only a likelihood, not a certainty.

 

[MilfordHusky]

Just for the record, there is no Tennessee-Connecticut rivalry to revive. Tennessee is just one more above average program out of lots of them. No one cares about the two schools playing each other. Connecticut is the nation's premier basketball program, with the nation's finest coach, while Tennessee is just some also-ran somewhere in the hinterlands that underperforms year after year.

If anyone at Tennessee is thinking that there is some equivalence between the programs, they're on drugs....

I assume you have heard about the opioid epidemic.

 

[triaddukefan]

Side note, they also have a very real possibility of losing out the remaining games this year...can you please do your part in it???

Well they aint winning in Durham on Sunday.... no way no how. They play Syracuse on thursday..... that could go either way.