Rankings: Don't Expect Much Movement Through Season's End

[Fairfield Fan]

I don't think there will be many surprises, or much movement in the rankings from now on. Today most everyone who was supposed to win did win: Ohio State over Purdue; South Carolina (minus A'ja Wilson) over a solid LSU team; Stanford is taking down Colorado; Florida State clobbers Clemson. Etc.

The only partial surprise, if we can call it that, is the perhaps most inconsistent team in the country, NC State's, takedown of Duke. So Duke falls a few places, but given that NC State has made a habit of knocking off high-ranked teams, not too many places.

Cal could exit the Top 25, given its loss to Utah, and its 2-4 conference record.

Seems to me that the top teams are only getting better, witness Florida State's clobbering of Clemson, and South Carolina's win versus LSU, and Baylor's clobbering of Kansas.

Frankly, it's wait until March Madness now for most of the ranked teams.

Ho-hum.

 

[oldude]

You may be a bit premature. The Pac 12 is a dogfight with a number of teams capable of winning it (Wash, Stan, OSU, Oregon, UCLA?). The ACC also appears to be competitive. We haven't seen FSU vs ND yet, and NCSt & Duke are competitive. The SEC looks like it will come down to MsSt and SC, who have also not played yet. I do agree that the BIG (MD), Pac12 (Baylor) and of course the AAC (U know who) appear to be settled.

 

[Wbbfan1]

ND might fall out of the Top 10 by the time they finish play in the Regular Season of the ACC. Have to think they end up with a couple of more losses. They still have games against Duke, FSU and games at Virginia Tech and Syracuse.

They'll probably end up as a 2 or 3 seed in Lexington or Bridgeport.

 

[Plebe]

Cal could exit the Top 25, given its loss to Utah, and its 2-4 conference record.

Cal will definitely exit, but it's not clear who will take their place:
#26 Syracuse beat #23 NC State but then lost to Georgia Tech.
#27 Tennessee lost to Ole Miss.
#28 Colorado lost to both #24 Cal and #13 Stanford.
#29 Green Bay beat two teams ranked outside the RPI top 150.
... and so on, unimpressively.

 

[Fairfield Fan]

Cal will definitely exit, but it's not clear who will take their place:
#26 Syracuse beat #23 NC State but then lost to Georgia Tech.
#27 Tennessee lost to Ole Miss.
#28 Colorado lost to both #24 Cal and #13 Stanford.
#29 Green Bay beat two teams ranked outside the RPI top 150.
... and so on, unimpressively.

Exactly. So while there should be a few jiggles within the Top 25, I doubt that anyone there, with one or two possible exceptions, will exit over the next several weeks. And even if a couple of teams look weak, is there really anyone who has earned their way into the Top 25? As you point out, most of those teams on the outs aren't that impressive. I thought an LSU victory over a Wilson-less South Carolina would propel them in, a la K-State. But they lost pretty badly, so...

While we don't know who will win the ACC and PAC-12 regular season championships, that's the point: anyone could, so shouldn't matter much for the rankings. Even if ND craps out and loses to Tennessee, or to someone else in the ACC, will they fall outside the Top 25? Not likely.

So I think we'll see very minor movements over the next few weeks, and the rankings won't be very interesting to follow.

 

[Stinger92860]

I don't think there will be many surprises, or much movement in the rankings from now on. Today most everyone who was supposed to win did win: Ohio State over Purdue; South Carolina (minus A'ja Wilson) over a solid LSU team; Stanford is taking down Colorado; Florida State clobbers Clemson. Etc.

The only partial surprise, if we can call it that, is the perhaps most inconsistent team in the country, NC State's, takedown of Duke. So Duke falls a few places, but given that NC State has made a habit of knocking off high-ranked teams, not too many places.

Cal could exit the Top 25, given its loss to Utah, and its 2-4 conference record.

Seems to me that the top teams are only getting better, witness Florida State's clobbering of Clemson, and South Carolina's win versus LSU, and Baylor's clobbering of Kansas.

Frankly, it's wait until March Madness now for most of the ranked teams.

Ho-hum.

Don't jinx us.

 

[Vowelguy]

ND might fall out of the Top 10 by the time they finish play in the Regular Season of the ACC. Have to think they end up with a couple of more losses. They still have games against Duke, FSU and games at Virginia Tech and Syracuse.

They'll probably end up as a 2 or 3 seed in Lexington or Bridgeport.

Neither VaT or Syracuse are very strong. ND's biggest challenges will be FSU, Louisville, Duke. All are at home. I doubt the Irish will be a 3 seed.

The ACC regular season champ will be a 1 or 2 seed.

 

[Fairfield Fan]

Neither VaT or Syracuse are very strong. ND's biggest challenges will be FSU, Louisville, Duke. All are at home. I doubt the Irish will be a 3 seed.

The ACC regular season champ will be a 1 or 2 seed.

But you never know what'll happen in the ACC tournament. Sometimes the champ goes out quickly, especially if the team is from outside Carolina. SEC similarly doesn't guarantee that the regular season winner gets the tournament crown.

So would seem that interest in the season will pick up when the tournaments commence. And then into the Big Dance.

But will anything that happens between now and then really have any major impact on anything? Could matter for the lower half teams going into the tournament. Could matter for 3 and 4 seeds. But otherwise, I don't see any of the top twelve moving much in any direction, and don't see the second tier of the rankings exiting. Sort of like UConn's remaining season on a bigger scale.

 

[Vowelguy]

But you never know what'll happen in the ACC tournament. Sometimes the champ goes out quickly, especially if the team is from outside Carolina. SEC similarly doesn't guarantee that the regular season winner gets the tournament crown.
.

The committee has said that regular season matters a lot. EArly conf tournament loss will not drop your seed significantly.
Tourney moved out of G-boro because of bathroom bill.

 

[Vowelguy]

But will anything that happens between now and then really have any major impact on anything? .

Sure there is. The ACC and PAC are so jammed that teams could very easily move up or down. A team could go on a run and win all their conference games and snag a #1 or 2 seed, while if another team loses them all and finishes 5th or 6th, they fall to a 6 or 7 seed or worse.

 

[Fairfield Fan]

Sure there is. The ACC and PAC are so jammed that teams could very easily move up or down. A team could go on a run and win all their conference games and snag a #1 or 2 seed, while if another team loses them all and finishes 5th or 6th, they fall to a 6 or 7 seed or worse.

But not likely to happen this season. Possible. But not likely.

 

[Wbbfan1]

#1 Seed is Almost out the Door for the ACC depeding on what South Carolina does. #1 Seeds UConn, Baylor, Maryland and IMO South Carolina as they Might only have one more loss for the rest of the year. They'll end up with 1 or 2 losses for the season. Don't see Miss St beating them, but anything is possible. If Miss St beats So Carolina 2 times, then they could get a #1 seed as they'll be undefeated.

Neither VaT or Syracuse are very strong. ND's biggest challenges will be FSU, Louisville, Duke. All are at home. I doubt the Irish will be a 3 seed.

The ACC regular season champ will be a 1 or 2 seed.

 

[easttexastrash]

You may be a bit premature.

It can happen...

 

[Vowelguy]

#1 Seed is Almost out the Door for the ACC depeding on what South Carolina does. #1 Seeds UConn, Baylor, Maryland and IMO South Carolina as they Might only have one more loss for the rest of the year. They'll end up with 1 or 2 losses for the season. Don't see Miss St beating them, but anything is possible. If Miss St beats So Carolina 2 times, then they could get a #1 seed as they'll be undefeated.

If ND or FSU run the table, I think they beat out MD for a #1. The Terps don't have enough Q wins.

 

[DefenseBB]

If ND or FSU run the table, I think they beat out MD for a #1. The Terps don't have enough Q wins.

Maybe, just maybe if FSU runs the table, they could finish top 4, depending on SC and Miss St. Other than that, UConn, Baylor and MD are locks for the #1 as they should run their own conference schedules. I understand your stance on MD however they have already proved their bonafides like Baylor has. If SC gives UConn a good game and wins the SEC, they have the edge on the ACC Champ.

 

[easttexastrash]

If ND or FSU run the table, I think they beat out MD for a #1. The Terps don't have enough Q wins.

Chances are that MD runs the table and ends with 1 loss, a 6 point loss to UCONN. IMO, that equals a # 1 seed.

 

[Vowelguy]

Chances are that MD runs the table and ends with 1 loss, a 6 point loss to UCONN. IMO, that equals a # 1 seed.

FSU lost by 2, wo Romero, and play in a far tougher conference.

 

[easttexastrash]

FSU lost by 2, wo Romero, and play in a far tougher conference.

Remind me who else they lost to WITH Romero playing. And remind me where that game was played.

 

[SCspur]

#1 Seed is Almost out the Door for the ACC depeding on what South Carolina does. #1 Seeds UConn, Baylor, Maryland and IMO South Carolina as they Might only have one more loss for the rest of the year. They'll end up with 1 or 2 losses for the season. Don't see Miss St beating them, but anything is possible. If Miss St beats So Carolina 2 times, then they could get a #1 seed as they'll be undefeated.

MS ST will have to travel to hostile territory twice to defeat SC twice. Once in Columbia and Once in Greenville (Our Backyard) for the SEC tourney. I think we win both matchups but anything can happen.

 

[SCspur]

Chances are that MD runs the table and ends with 1 loss, a 6 point loss to UCONN. IMO, that equals a # 1 seed.

They still have Ohio St in conference and Big10 tourney anything is possible especially with how close they played PSU, Minnesota and Iowa.

 

[easttexastrash]

They still have Ohio St in conference and Big10 tourney anything is possible especially with how close they played PSU, Minnesota and Iowa.

If they lose I will have to reconsider. Until then, based on current results, MD gets my vote.

 

[UcMiami]

Chances are that MD runs the table and ends with 1 loss, a 6 point loss to UCONN. IMO, that equals a # 1 seed.

Well they should have run the table last year and ended losing twice to Ohio State so I am not ready yet to say they get to the NCAAs with the one lost. And I could see quite a bit of movement in the 18-25 back end of the rankings with teams getting in if they continue winning and some of the questionable teams in those rankings lose more games to weak opponents - there isn't a lot to distinguish the teams and those on the outside of the rankings.

 

[KnightBridgeAZ]

No one mentioned that Texas and Baylor have 2 games later this season. While I sincerely think that Baylor is the better team, the jury is technically still out on Texas - while they lost to the good teams they played, there was comment they were "developing". Have they? TBD. I simply don't want to take a guarantee, look what happened in Dallas in the NFL today.

 

[Plebe]

FSU lost by 2, wo Romero, and play in a far tougher conference.

I do think that if Maryland goes undefeated the rest of the regular season plus conference tournament, they'll get a #1 seed despite having far fewer top-25 and top-50 wins than the likes of ND and FSU.

 

[Vowelguy]

Seems to me that the top teams are only getting better, witness Florida State's clobbering of Clemson, and South Carolina's win versus LSU, and Baylor's clobbering of Kansas.

Frankly, it's wait until March Madness now for most of the ranked teams.

Ho-hum.

Here's a test: for each of the top 5 seed lines, who do you think are the 4 teams right now? Then we can compare the final bracket and whether there is indeed no movement between now and then.