nelsonmuntz
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I thought it would be worthwhile to rank the NNBE teams on potential.
1) Boise - best coach in the country, plays a fun offense and fun defense, and competes effectively for talent in both California and Texas. Has a national brand and is the only show in town in a third tier market.
2) Louisville - big athletic program with big budget. If the TV contract comes through, should be able to keep Charlie Strong. Will be the best team in the Big East-East and should have some major bowls in its future.
3) Rutgers - Location matters. New Jersey recruiting together with New York media market make Rutgers formidable. Flood seems a lot like Schiano but with about 40 more IQ points.
4) San Diego State - location matters. There is no reason for SDSU to have sucked as bad as it has for as long as it has. The school is located in one of the best cities in the country by virtually any measure. There is a mountain of talent in Southern California with only two other programs within 5 hours, one of whom recruits nationally. SDSU should have a Top 40 class every season. The only caveat is that Rocky Long is probably the wrong coach for this team. Long is a great mid-major coach and defensive innovator, but SDSU needs a coach that is a recruiter first, and doesn't even need to be that good a game coach. In other words, SDSU needs a Schiano. I think SDSU will blossom in the Big East.
5) Cincinnati - increasingly good brand and tremendous local talent base. Unlike some of the other programs on this list, I feel like coaches, players and fans of other programs really respect Cincinnati. Great stadium, although it is small. I like Jones, although I think he chokes in close games. Cincinnati has shown it can replace coaches seemlessly, and when was the last time Cincinnati outright sucked?
6) Houston - Tremendous local talent base and some positive history, including recently. The school plays a fun style on both sides too, which matters for recruits. They are building a new stadium which shows commitment to the program. Levine has some serious issues, but I expect the Houston brass to give him a very short leash. This school wants to compete at the highest level, and I expect them to move quickly to solve the HC situation once the TV money shows up.
7) UConn - despite a strong brand, good academics, and a second tier metro market with no pro competition, UConn is struggling. UConn has little history in football, has an OK local talent base, and Pasqualoni is terrible. I expect the Pasqualoni situation to be temporary though. With a new coach, UConn should be competitive quickly.
8) USF - great talent and surprisingly good fan support. Strong area recruiting. I don't think Holtz is a terrible coach, but he is not disciplined enough for Florida athletes and the team plays out of control and self-destructs (FWIW, do any of the Florida schools play under control?). 7 years in the Big East and some huge wins over that period have really helped the schools profile, but it feels like it is at a tipping point and could go either way. I think the large number of Florida schools competing at a high level, together with the fact that virtually every program in the counrty recruits Florida hard, makes it somewhat difficult for USF to stand out.
9) UCF - Same as USF for the most part. While O'Leary is a good, not great, coach, UCF knows they have to replace him within the next few years. I think this will be an attractive job for a guy like Cristobal, but it does introduce uncertainty.
10) Temple - Temple should not suck like they have historically. Philadelphia is a huge metro area without a football team, and Pennsylvania is a big state to have just Pitt and Penn State. PSU's probation will give Addazio a chance to grab "depth" kids that may have gone to Penn State in the past, and the DC metro area has a lot of talent and two crappy programs, Maryland and UVA, recruiting there. That said, Temple is Temple, on the north side of Philly. Addazio is a good, not great, coach that is unlikely to leave if they can pay him a little more.
11) SMU - good location and lots of money, but SMU has never been good historically unless they were cheating. I don't see the DFW metro area supporting top football programs at 2 high quality, private schools. I do like Jones as a coach.
12) Navy - hard to see a service academy being competitive long term in a major or semi-major conference. I do like the coach, and they have a large fan base.
13) Memphis - Tommy West got this program to mediocrity for a while, but there is no brand in football and they are competing for talent with Big 12, Big 10 and SEC schools. Commuter school with a dump of a stadium in a poor city. The only pros are that they do have the city and there is some corporate support.
1) Boise - best coach in the country, plays a fun offense and fun defense, and competes effectively for talent in both California and Texas. Has a national brand and is the only show in town in a third tier market.
2) Louisville - big athletic program with big budget. If the TV contract comes through, should be able to keep Charlie Strong. Will be the best team in the Big East-East and should have some major bowls in its future.
3) Rutgers - Location matters. New Jersey recruiting together with New York media market make Rutgers formidable. Flood seems a lot like Schiano but with about 40 more IQ points.
4) San Diego State - location matters. There is no reason for SDSU to have sucked as bad as it has for as long as it has. The school is located in one of the best cities in the country by virtually any measure. There is a mountain of talent in Southern California with only two other programs within 5 hours, one of whom recruits nationally. SDSU should have a Top 40 class every season. The only caveat is that Rocky Long is probably the wrong coach for this team. Long is a great mid-major coach and defensive innovator, but SDSU needs a coach that is a recruiter first, and doesn't even need to be that good a game coach. In other words, SDSU needs a Schiano. I think SDSU will blossom in the Big East.
5) Cincinnati - increasingly good brand and tremendous local talent base. Unlike some of the other programs on this list, I feel like coaches, players and fans of other programs really respect Cincinnati. Great stadium, although it is small. I like Jones, although I think he chokes in close games. Cincinnati has shown it can replace coaches seemlessly, and when was the last time Cincinnati outright sucked?
6) Houston - Tremendous local talent base and some positive history, including recently. The school plays a fun style on both sides too, which matters for recruits. They are building a new stadium which shows commitment to the program. Levine has some serious issues, but I expect the Houston brass to give him a very short leash. This school wants to compete at the highest level, and I expect them to move quickly to solve the HC situation once the TV money shows up.
7) UConn - despite a strong brand, good academics, and a second tier metro market with no pro competition, UConn is struggling. UConn has little history in football, has an OK local talent base, and Pasqualoni is terrible. I expect the Pasqualoni situation to be temporary though. With a new coach, UConn should be competitive quickly.
8) USF - great talent and surprisingly good fan support. Strong area recruiting. I don't think Holtz is a terrible coach, but he is not disciplined enough for Florida athletes and the team plays out of control and self-destructs (FWIW, do any of the Florida schools play under control?). 7 years in the Big East and some huge wins over that period have really helped the schools profile, but it feels like it is at a tipping point and could go either way. I think the large number of Florida schools competing at a high level, together with the fact that virtually every program in the counrty recruits Florida hard, makes it somewhat difficult for USF to stand out.
9) UCF - Same as USF for the most part. While O'Leary is a good, not great, coach, UCF knows they have to replace him within the next few years. I think this will be an attractive job for a guy like Cristobal, but it does introduce uncertainty.
10) Temple - Temple should not suck like they have historically. Philadelphia is a huge metro area without a football team, and Pennsylvania is a big state to have just Pitt and Penn State. PSU's probation will give Addazio a chance to grab "depth" kids that may have gone to Penn State in the past, and the DC metro area has a lot of talent and two crappy programs, Maryland and UVA, recruiting there. That said, Temple is Temple, on the north side of Philly. Addazio is a good, not great, coach that is unlikely to leave if they can pay him a little more.
11) SMU - good location and lots of money, but SMU has never been good historically unless they were cheating. I don't see the DFW metro area supporting top football programs at 2 high quality, private schools. I do like Jones as a coach.
12) Navy - hard to see a service academy being competitive long term in a major or semi-major conference. I do like the coach, and they have a large fan base.
13) Memphis - Tommy West got this program to mediocrity for a while, but there is no brand in football and they are competing for talent with Big 12, Big 10 and SEC schools. Commuter school with a dump of a stadium in a poor city. The only pros are that they do have the city and there is some corporate support.
