Race for 1 Seed (2/5) | Page 6 | The Boneyard

Race for 1 Seed (2/5)

UConNick said:
I understand the argument for being a 2 in DC vs. a 1 in Houston. But Ruff’s right, it’s way more advantageous to play one of the teams in the 4 area vs. a 3.

In my personal bracketology (which I’ve refrained from posting for fear of getting flamed), my 3s are Nebraska, Florida, Kansas, and Vanderbilt. My 4s are Gonzaga, Michigan St, TTU, and Virginia. As a group, which scares you more?
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Vandy doesnt scare me nearly as much as TT so if you swap them then the 4 seeds are clearly the preferable matchups
 
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KingAG said:


Sign me up for this if our 4/5 is Louisville and Vanderbilt

We beat Kansas in the Phog. Give me Houston in the South
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I honestly think the Houston game is the one that bothers me...which means the bracket is solid for us. I know we shouldn't sleep on Nebraska and a couple others but Houston is the only one that bothers me. This would be a great bracket.
 
RuffRuff said:
I wouldn't - 3 seeds much better than the 4. S16 would then be team like:

Difference will be playing a Kansas, Florida, Texas Tech

vs

Gonzaga, Vandy, Virginia.

3 seeds might be as good as 2 seeds, 4 seeds closer to 5.

I would rather roll the dice there than looking to avoid Houston in the Elite 8. They'll have to play one of those 3 seeds instead and could easily lose.
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I tend to agree. There is a clear difference between the 3s and 4s this year.
 
RuffRuff said:
I wouldn't - 3 seeds much better than the 4. S16 would then be team like:

Difference will be playing a Kansas, Florida, Texas Tech

vs

Gonzaga, Vandy, Virginia.

3 seeds might be as good as 2 seeds, 4 seeds closer to 5.

I would rather roll the dice there than looking to avoid Houston in the Elite 8. They'll have to play one of those 3 seeds instead and could easily lose.
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The 3 seeds are legitimately historically good this season, at least in recent KenPom history.

But this depends if the teams ranked in that range end up seeded there accordingly.
 
bendm said:
Vandy doesnt scare me nearly as much as TT so if you swap them then the 4 seeds are clearly the preferable matchups

Edit- the tweet just posted above agrees with me
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I agree, I was surprised I landed Vandy at 12 on my s-curve but left it. 10.3 resume metric average and 11.6 predictive metric average when I did this on Sunday. Would agree on TTU or even Michigan St being just as if not more as worthy.
 
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freescooter said:
I am very worried about Villanova at Villanova. More because of how we are playing than them. And St John’s dominated us in “our second home.” Yeah, it’s theirs too, but nobody gets all hot and bothered about MSG like UConn fans. (After 50 years as a UConn fan I still don’t understand it. Give most UConn fans the choice of a 3-some with their choice is 2 top models of the year or go to MSG, UConn fans are the only people on earth who would choose MSG). I don’t have confidence that we will get through the rest of the year without a couple of additional losses. I hope we do, but Georgetown was very disappointing.
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Come on, they beat Georgetown by double what they did the first time. That's progress.
 
KingAG said:


Sign me up for this if our 4/5 is Louisville and Vanderbilt

We beat Kansas in the Phog. Give me Houston in the South
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Honestly I wouldn't be shocked if UH doesn't even make it past Nebraska. Not scared of either, bring 'em on. I agree, couldn't ask for a much better drawing for our bracket if this ends up being our region
 
UConNick said:
I understand the argument for being a 2 in DC vs. a 1 in Houston. But Ruff’s right, it’s way more advantageous to play one of the teams in the 4 area vs. a 3.

In my personal bracketology (which I’ve refrained from posting for fear of getting flamed), my 3s are Nebraska, Florida, Kansas, and Vanderbilt. My 4s are Gonzaga, Michigan St, TTU, and Virginia. As a group, which scares you more?
Expand ...
I doubt Vandy jumps TT - TT has some of the better wins in the country in Houston, Duke and @AZ. Vandy can't even come close. There are three 3 seeds that have a legitimate shot at the Final 4.
 
KingAG said:


Sign me up for this if our 4/5 is Louisville and Vanderbilt

We beat Kansas in the Phog. Give me Houston in the South
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Like it - although Miami is a talented 8 seed. Raneau gave AK fits in the past.
 
.-.
auror said:
We can get it back if we win out, but we're chasing now instead of leading.
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Chances are slim to none if you ask me. Winning out is the only chance and based on how we look, that doesn't sound likely.

We are 14 in KP - that has to be the lowest KP for anyone thinking they had one seed chances, ever.
 
The next 3 games are against good/ok teams....after performance tonight just hoping can hang on to a 2 seed. If win out then 1 seed is still in play but need to look vastly better on Saturday @Nova and get that win somehow.

But honestly the team looks like a 2 seed at best....just hope they figure things out next 4 games before the post-season and make a run.
 
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Tortoise Easy Going GIF by Tierpark Berlin
 
.-.
I'd bet on a 3 before a 1 at this point. If we only lose one more game before the NCAAs, that would be a pleasant surprise.
 
4 losses by 4 different top 10 teams already this week, and a guaranteed 2 more losses in the top 4 with the Michigan v Duke and Houston v Arizona matchups on Saturday is going to make the top 25 rankings on Monday more challenging.
 
Most of the metrics have had UConn in the 8-10 range for weeks which puts them mid to bottom 2 seed. I've been surprised the poll hadn't caught up but I think it will now.
 
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80shusky said:
Most of the metrics have had UConn in the 8-10 range for weeks which puts them mid to bottom 2 seed. I've been surprised the poll hadn't caught up but I think it will now.
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Not true at all. Some of you who post stuff like this and don't know what you're talking about are doing the board a disservice by spreading false information.

NET has become one of the most commonly referenced college basketball metrics since the NCAA introduced it for the 2018-19 season. The "NCAA Evaluation Tool" remains a vital cog in selection methodology.

However, it is not necessarily a "resume" tool. NET is influenced by margin of victory and efficiency, which is a feature and not a bug. Because of the way it's designed, a team's NET ranking gives a view of how difficult that team is to beat and not necessarily a full view of its resume.

UConn is a great example. The Huskies are No. 10 in NET entering their Wednesday game against Creighton. Yet, they are projected as the fourth No. 1 seed in CBS Sports Bracketology. Why? Because of a resume that ranks No. 3 in WAB and is highlighted by victories over Illinois, Florida and Kansas.

www.cbssports.com

Why college basketball fans should master Wins Above Bubble: WAB is new factor in NCAA Tournament selection

If you only have the bandwidth to master one metric before Selection Sunday, consider learning WAB
www.cbssports.com www.cbssports.com
 
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