Quite a few on Creighton forum picking UConn to win NC

[Tenspro2002]

@Tenspro2002 @auror
According to kenpom we had a 0.7% chance to win it all in 2014.

Yeah, OK, that's the 0.68% that I got multiplying the numbers he listed.

 

[8893]

This is a fluke:

 

[auror]

That math can't be right. Flipping heads 6 times in a row is 1/2^6 = 1/64 ~1.5%.

Those 2014 UConn odds, just by eye, are only slightly worse than that, maybe it's 0.5%. But not 0.06%. You must have dropped a decimal point somewhere. (In fact, doing the calculation just now yields 0.68%.)

That said, your heavy favorite example understates it a bit. A #1 seed is ~100% to win in the first round and probably 60-80% after that. That would be close to 15%. Probably overdoing it a bit, but in the ballpark. Gonzaga is something like 6-1 right now, which implies around 13-14%.

@Tenspro2002 @auror
According to kenpom we had a 0.7% chance to win it all in 2014.

Whoops yeah I moved a decimal too far somewhere. So 10x less likely, not 100x.

That brings up an interesting point, though. We were not fortunate in 2014. We played pretty much exactly the average difficulty path. Ken's log numbers are pre-tournament, based on simulating the tournament and getting an average. My numbers listed are the actual game probabilities during the run on game day. We played 10, 2, 3 (they were a bit overseeded, more like a 5), 4 (but they were a top 8 team when we played them), 1 and then 8 (but they were a top 10 team by the time we played them). So it's like we played 10, 2, 5, 2, 1, 3.

The pre-tournament and actual probabilities lined up extremely well.

 

[NJHusky]

I'm not even sure you need the "arguably" qualifier. Napier was the most valuable player in the tournament but that was truly some lightning in a bottle stuff with that team.

This team might be better in a lot of spots but guards matter in March. Put Bazz and Boat on this team it’s prob fighting for a #1 seed

 

[Get a Job]

Kemba and Napier were cold blooded assassins. That was no fluke that they won. It was a fluke that the regular season didnt better reflect how talented they were.

It's not that what you said is all that dumb. It's just that, given your posting history, it might take another few years before you post something that actually deserves the following. I need to take the opportunity while I can. So:

Post/handle

 

[UConnSwag11]

We had the best player in college basketball in 2011. We won 11 straight in win-or-go-home BET and NCAAT games. We didn't lose one OOC game or one tournament game that season.

In 2014, we had arguably the best player in college basketball as well as arguably the best backcourt in the nation. We lost one OOC game that season I believe. In the AAC and NCAAT we were 8-1.

In both Championship runs we had the toughest path to get there out of everyone else.

It was no fluke

 

[ClifSpliffy]

Is it legal for a falookie! to be a forward pass?

yes, any which way was legal. a ball carrier often has both hands on or near the ball, so the most common move was to use 2 hands to strategically flip it up there to a spot that looked unpopulated, and run faster than the unknowing to that spot.
there also was great debate as to the 'triple crown' rarely awarded. the triple crown was if a player was knocked into the building or fence where they meet, and then caromed to the other, and finally landing on the asphalt. 3 points.
we had no field goals cuz nobody was kicking anything to land who knows where elsewhere in the city, unless they were looking for trouble, which was always easy to find. not me tho, i was a freakin gandhi on the playground and streets, since i'd seen way too many times how words became fists, or worse, waaaay too many times.
'is that my moms calling? i got's to go now gents, smell u later...'
that time i got shot by a co2 on the hoops court was most instructional.
just becuz i called a foul, or something like that.
and don't blame us. we learned weird rules from a saintly teacher who managed the afterschool program. playing a baseball-like game on that playground with a rubber ball, and fists for a bat, he would sometimes call out '25!,' against a team for some infraction, like hitting the ball into a neighboring yard, or factory, or too much fighting, which meant their opponent could continue to bat until they made 3 consecutive outs, and not just 3. we mostly thought he did it to cheat for a badly losing team, niceness an all that. i mean, it's not like we couldn't just hop the fence to get it back, but i guess it was a political thing for school management to prevent us reprobates from constantly nosing around someone's yard.
on the udder hand, a nasty dog in that yard seemed to work quite well.

 

[HuskyHawk]

I'm not even sure you need the "arguably" qualifier. Napier was the most valuable player in the tournament but that was truly some lightning in a bottle stuff with that team.

Just avoidance of some here blowing their top at the suggestion. We know how people get.

 

[Waquoit]

I'm not even sure you need the "arguably" qualifier. Napier was the most valuable player in the tournament but that was truly some lightning in a bottle stuff with that team.

A Met fan I knew hated it when people referred to the Miracle Mets years later. "What miracle?" he would say. "They had the best team that year." So did UConn in 2014.

 

[ClifSpliffy]

yes, any which way was legal. a ball carrier often has both hands on or near the ball, so the most common move was to use 2 hands to strategically flip it up there to a spot that looked unpopulated, and run faster than the unknowing to that spot.
there also was great debate as to the 'triple crown' rarely awarded. the triple crown was if a player was knocked into the building or fence where they meet, and then caromed to the other, and finally landing on the asphalt. 3 points.
we had no field goals cuz nobody was kicking anything to land who knows where elsewhere in the city, unless they were looking for trouble, which was always easy to find. not me tho, i was a freakin gandhi on the playground and streets, since i'd seen way too many times how words became fists, or worse, waaaay too many times.
'is that my moms calling? i got's to go now gents, smell u later...'
that time i got shot by a co2 on the hoops court was most instructional.
just becuz i called a foul, or something like that.
and don't blame us. we learned weird rules from a saintly teacher who managed the afterschool program. playing a baseball-like game on that playground with a rubber ball, and fists for a bat, he would sometimes call out '25!,' against a team for some infraction, like hitting the ball into a neighboring yard, or factory, or too much fighting, which meant their opponent could continue to bat until they made 3 consecutive outs, and not just 3. we mostly thought he did it to cheat for a badly losing team, niceness an all that. i mean, it's not like we couldn't just hop the fence to get it back, but i guess it was a political thing for school management to prevent us reprobates from constantly nosing around someone's yard.
on the udder hand, a nasty dog in that yard seemed to work quite well.

'umm, yeah, we good. u can keep it, we'll find another ball....'

 

[freshler40]

A Met fan I knew hated it when people referred to the Miracle Mets years later. "What miracle?" he would say. "They had the best team that year." So did UConn in 2014.

Every flip of a coin is random, nothing about it is predictable but with so many 5th players and transfers loading the rosters of the top college teams does this make this year less of a fluke? At least through the quarterfinals?
Don't turn your nose down on a fluke, they are good eating!

 

[Dutch Boyd]

I’ve never understood the fluke thing. It’s not like our brackets collapsed in front of us. Some of Tom Izzo’s final four runs were definitely flukes if you look at the seeds they had to play.

 

[dennismenace]

Pretty much, but there is some genuine appreciation for Kemba.

There should be. Running the table in the Big East Tournament 5 games in 5 days and scoring a record 130 pts and then put the team on his back and sweeps the NCAA with 6 more wins. This with a team that finished 9-9 in the league. Kemba just wasn't going to let them lose. He picked up Calhoun every
day at practice according to JC who was facing the chicken shat recruiting violation woes at the time. Kemba had a big smile on his face through it all. Remarkable performance and went on to a great NBA career as well. I hope he goes into coaching if he has the inclination after he retires from the league.

 

[Dogdeacon]

That math can't be right. Flipping heads 6 times in a row is 1/2^6 = 1/64 ~1.5%.

Those 2014 UConn odds, just by eye, are only slightly worse than that, maybe it's 0.5%. But not 0.06%. You must have dropped a decimal point somewhere. (In fact, doing the calculation just now yields 0.68%.)

That said, your heavy favorite example understates it a bit. A #1 seed is ~100% to win in the first round and probably 60-80% after that. That would be close to 15%. Probably overdoing it a bit, but in the ballpark. Gonzaga is something like 6-1 right now, which implies around 13-14%.

If you add up the same % based on betting odds for top favorites Gonzaga, Zona, Baylor, Auburn and another 10 teams in top 20 you'd get way over 100% chance to win it all. Those odds cannot accurately reflect the actual chances of winning 6 in a row, bc 'vegas' needs to make money. Every winner is low probability by definition, that's why its so great.

 

[CallMeBruce]

There are low probability events and LOW probability events. Like a team that is favored between 55% and 75% in all 6 games would win something like 5% of the time. 2014 UConn was 64%, 39%, 51%, 42%, 26%, 49% = 0.06% according to KenPom's game lines. It's a 100x less likely result.

You're off by a magnitude here. 0.6%, not 0.06%.

 

[NYC_HUSKY22]

Go to their actual forum and you’ll hear a much different response. Whiniest fan base I’ve ever encountered with a four game history. They loathe everything UConn.

 

[TheChamps990411]

Whenever someone says either win was a fluke I tell them that it is no fluke that both teams had the best player in the country and each was a pg.

I roll my eyes at people that call championships flukes. Its as stupid as when someone lands "a lucky punch" in boxing.

 

[TheChamps990411]

Nothing about 2014 was a fluke. Napier played 7 seasons in the NBA, Boat, Daniels, and Giffey all play basketball professionally. That team was loaded with talent.

None of that has anything to do with it being a fluke or not. All teams that win titles have varying degrees of talent. The point is the fluke argument is garbage and doesnt need to be even humored with a response. That team beat some of the best teams in the country on its way to a title. Nuff said.

 

[bigknight3]

You were saying...

 

[uconnfan68]

Backhanded compliment. They are saying it’s anyone’s to win so we’ll be a fluke winner again.

Only if we don’t play them.

 

[Scoe]

Not winning it all in 2006 and 2009 was a fluke.

 

[CL82]

Go to their actual forum and you’ll hear a much different response. Whiniest fan base I’ve ever encountered with a four game history. They loathe everything UConn.

Yep. The link is to the national basketball forum.