Quite a few on Creighton forum picking UConn to win NC

[dogpause]

Our guys seem to be getting some respect. Good forum with some knowledgable fans. References to Kemba and Shabazz too. Search for UConn in the thread.

Who will win the National Championship?

Just curious what the consensus is on Rivals. If the tournament started today, who would you take? I think there are several teams that could fit into the other category. Possibly Texas Tech, Illinois, Wisconsin, UCLA, Arkansas, Tennessee, Houston, and Providence.

forums.rivals.com

 

[OkaForPrez]

Backhanded compliment. They are saying it’s anyone’s to win so we’ll be a fluke winner again.

 

[CL82]

Backhanded compliment. They are saying it’s anyone’s to win so we’ll be a fluke winner again.

Pretty much, but there is some genuine appreciation for Kemba.

 

[businesslawyer]

Note: the key word in the phrase “fluke champion” is not “fluke.”

 

[pepband99]

Double-secret-reverse-anti-mojo.

Well played, hayseeds, well played.

 

[firstnline]

Six wins in a row is no fluke. In our case its EPIC.

 

[Hoophound]

Whenever someone says either win was a fluke I tell them that it is no fluke that both teams had the best player in the country and each was a pg.

 

[Get a Job]

What is considered a fluke? Is it when a low-probability outcome occurs, such that one can reasonably assume that, if the situation were to be re-done, there would be a different outcome?

That is what I consider a fluke to be, and, accordingly, I consider every NCAA champion to be a fluke. In a game so matchup dependent as basketball, even the idea of a "best" team is nebulous, and when the basketball world does have a general consensus as to who the best is, that team often fails to win it all. And even when the "best" team wins, I still consider it a fluke, because I suspect that, if you had the selection committee start from scratch and re-run the tournament a bunch of iterations, that team would lose more often than they'd win.

 

[Sphinx]

What is considered a fluke? Is it when a low-probability outcome occurs, such that one can reasonably assume that, if the situation were to be re-done, there would be a different outcome?

That is what I consider a fluke to be, and, accordingly, I consider every NCAA champion to be a fluke. In a game so matchup dependent as basketball, even the idea of a "best" team is nebulous, and when the basketball world does have a general consensus as to who the best is, that team often fails to win it all. And even when the "best" team wins, I still consider it a fluke, because I suspect that, if you had the selection committee start from scratch and re-run the tournament a bunch of iterations, that team would lose more often than they'd win.

Indeed. Fact is, few teams enter the tournament with credentials that suggest that they can win six in a row against the very best of competition. Yet, somehow, amazingly, one team always does. It's true of any playoff format, of course, and because it must, perforce, produce a champion, that champion is always, to some extent, a fluke. I agree that the NCAAs would seldom produce the same champion if played twice over. But they do call it "madness," don't they?

 

[Inyatkin]

It's six straight one and dones, at least five of which are guaranteed to be against teams that can beat anyone on a given night. There's no such thing as a fluke champion.

 

[auror]

What is considered a fluke? Is it when a low-probability outcome occurs, such that one can reasonably assume that, if the situation were to be re-done, there would be a different outcome?

That is what I consider a fluke to be, and, accordingly, I consider every NCAA champion to be a fluke. In a game so matchup dependent as basketball, even the idea of a "best" team is nebulous, and when the basketball world does have a general consensus as to who the best is, that team often fails to win it all. And even when the "best" team wins, I still consider it a fluke, because I suspect that, if you had the selection committee start from scratch and re-run the tournament a bunch of iterations, that team would lose more often than they'd win.

There are low probability events and LOW probability events. Like a team that is favored between 55% and 75% in all 6 games would win something like 5% of the time. 2014 UConn was 64%, 39%, 51%, 42%, 26%, 49% = 0.06% according to KenPom's game lines. It's a 100x less likely result.

 

[Sphinx]

It's six straight one and dones, at least five of which are guaranteed to be against teams that can beat anyone on a given night. There's no such thing as a fluke champion.

You prove my point, of course. To beat five straight teams capable of beating you is nothing if not a fluke, especially when the format ensures that one team must inevitably do so.

 

[Get a Job]

It's six straight one and dones, at least five of which are guaranteed to be against teams that can beat anyone on a given night. There's no such thing as a fluke champion.

This gets at the prefacing question in my first post. It's all about one's definition of fluke. By what definition of fluke is a tourney winner not a fluke?

 

[CL82]

Hey, I’d be happy to win another “fluke” championship this year. ( I’m not saying it’s coming, because then it wouldn’t be a fluke. And we are doomed anyway. ) people can apply any modifiers they’d like to the word champions. In 2014 it was a fluke championship, fine. In 2011 another fluke, no problem. The win over Butler a boring championship, I’ve got no issue with it. Because in the end the word they can’t change is champions.

Oh and for those who are saying that a championship is always a fluke and it would never come out the same way, maybe, but championship teams have a confidence that influences outcomes. Great teams “find a way to win“. In that way I will add my own modifier to the 2011 championship it was “destiny“. Replay that tournament 100 times and Kemba Walker and the rest of the 2011 squad find a way to win.

 

[Waquoit]

A fluke is flipping 6 heads in a row not a tested team winning 6 games in a row.

 

[ClifSpliffy]

this is a fluke

this is not a fluke

apparently, there are way more salt-water challenged folks here than i thought.

 

[XLCenterFan]

Fluke is NY Giants winning the Super Bowl with David Tyree.

 

[UofCT]

Nothing about 2014 was a fluke. Napier played 7 seasons in the NBA, Boat, Daniels, and Giffey all play basketball professionally. That team was loaded with talent.

 

[Inyatkin]

You prove my point, of course. To beat five straight teams capable of beating you is nothing if not a fluke, especially when the format ensures that one team must inevitably do so.

I think the issue is that people equate fluke with someone not deserving it. If you win it, you deserve it. It's really hard. But yes, of course any team that runs that gauntlet and wins is by some measure unexpected.

 

[ClifSpliffy]

when playing 2 hand 'touch' (yeah, sure -touch, as if. tell that to the kids who thought it meant putting 2 hands on, and then shoving as hard as possible into the fence or building next to our schoolyard asphalt 'field'),
we had an option for anyone with the ball called 'falookie!'
exclamation point cuz you had to call falookie! before doing it. the falookie play is, at anytime with the ball, tossing it up in the air, and then running to retrieve it. if falookie is properly called, the falooker is now immune from being touched until they, if successful, are able to retrieve it. of course, anyone else can also try to get it, but u can't touch the falooker in the process, unless it was a true jump ball.
i bet that i lost a month, or a year, of my life arguing whether falookie was properly called. not used as much one might expect cuz iffn you retrieved it, everyone else was ready to pound you, with two hands, into the fence, building, or asphalt.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Nothing about 2014 was a fluke. Napier played 7 seasons in the NBA, Boat, Daniels, and Giffey all play basketball professionally. That team was loaded with talent.

It wasn't the most talented team in the country, hence the "fluke" label. But it had a lot of experienced talent, which is often going to prevail against inexperienced talent. I think this whole season is also showing that. So many seniors and 5th year guys playing for a lot of teams, means that those teams are more dangerous than they would have been. Yes, UConn is certainly one of them, so lightning could strike again. This team is arguably better than the 2014 team.

 

[Get a Job]

All you anti-fluke people are missing the point, and I think @Inyatkin hit the nail on the head. I do not mean it as a slight when I call an NCAA championship a fluke. It takes a great team to win it, and, moreover, who gives a hoot about how "good" the winner is and whether or not it was a fluke. The path to cutting down the nets is a wild ride for the team and its fans, and the experience should be savored by the lucky few who get to do so. The fact that every 'ship is a fluke (according to my definition) takes away nothing from that.

 

[Get a Job]

when playing 2 hand 'touch' (yeah, sure -touch, as if. tell that to the kids who thought it meant putting 2 hands on, and then shoving as hard as possible into the fence or building next to our schoolyard asphalt 'field'),
we had an option for anyone with the ball called 'falookie!'
exclamation point cuz you had to call falookie! before doing it. the falookie play is, at anytime with the ball, tossing it up in the air, and then running to retrieve it. if falookie is properly called, the falooker is now immune from being touched until they, if successful, are able to retrieve it. of course, anyone else can also try to get it, but u can't touch the falooker in the process, unless it was a true jump ball.
i bet that i lost a month, or a year, of my life arguing whether falookie was properly called. not used as much one might expect cuz iffn you retrieved it, everyone else was ready to pound you, with two hands, into the fence, building, or asphalt.

Is it legal for a falookie! to be a forward pass?

 

[dingaling]

Kemba and Napier were cold blooded assassins. That was no fluke that they won. It was a fluke that the regular season didnt better reflect how talented they were.

 

[BigErnMcCracken]

This team is arguably better than the 2014 team.

I'm not even sure you need the "arguably" qualifier. Napier was the most valuable player in the tournament but that was truly some lightning in a bottle stuff with that team.