Question UCF football

[GemParty]

In the unlikely event these guys go undefeated again, how ridiculous is it that the football Powers keep them out of any playoff two years in a row. Even with p5 teams getting upset recently. A friend of mine said they could lose 2 games total in the next 7 years and will never be ranked over #5.

How did this sport become the Annual Alabama bowl? I mean even the dominance of our UConn girls have lost 2 years in a row, in a ladder style format.

The domino effect, beyond killing our beloved old Big East, is no respect = no big money. It’s like swimming against the tide.

 

[Austin316]

They were ranked #10 last week and after a come from behind win against Memphis they are ranked #10 AGAIN this week when #2, #6, #7, and #8 all lose. How did they really not move up in the ranks?

That cancelled game against UNC hurt them.

Where is conspiracy kitty?

 

[Adios]

The polls are skewed to maximize profit.

 

[whaler11]

A come behind victory against a bad team that handed them the victory isn’t really an argument in their favor...

 

[huskymedic]

The deck is stacked against them to start being in the AAC. Schedules are set many years in advance and you can only play the games on your schedule (or not if cancelled). Take the underlying message here for a seemingly popular perspective @ this point - not the source:

 

[Austin316]

A come behind victory against a bad team that handed them the victory isn’t really an argument in their favor...

Memphis is a respectable team in our conference. Point we’ll taken however, Memphis BLEW that game. Their path to the playoff depends on how they do against Cinci and USF in the last 2 weeks of the season. They just had to win that game, which they did.

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

They have a better shot this year because they started so highly ranked. Last year came out of nowhere.

They do however have the 115th ranked SOS.

 

[whaler11]

They have a better shot this year because they started so highly ranked. Last year came out of nowhere.

I’d put their SOS up against ND any day of the week.

Why in the world would you do that?

“Here are the SOS rankings for each of the remaining unbeaten teams, by the way:

47. Notre Dame
54. Ohio State
56. Alabama
74. Clemson
89. NC State
115. UCF
125. Cincinnati
127. USF”

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

Why in the world would you do that?

“Here are the SOS rankings for each of the remaining unbeaten teams, by the way:

47. Notre Dame
54. Ohio State
56. Alabama
74. Clemson
89. NC State
115. UCF
125. Cincinnati
127. USF”

A poor choice of words. I should have said resume. ND has squeaked by okay teams and UCF has spanked bad teams (I wouldn’t say Memphis is bad and UCF certainly did not spank them.) Pitt is a common opponent and I think UCF beat them by 30 and ND beat them by 5.

 

[Husky68]

Seems like Notre Dame had some trouble with 126 Ball St., 68 Vandy, 62 Pitt (who lost to UCF by 31) ,; Clemson was fortunate to get by 46 Syracuse at home.

Per Massey UCF is 13th. 7 teams ahead have 1 loss (Georgia, LSU, Mich. Okl. Florida, Iowa, Texas (4 wins by less the 7 pts.) and one 2 loss team Penn State.
Don't think UCF is as good this year as last, but let's say they run it out. Looks like most or all of 1 and 2 loss teams ahead of UCF have a loss in their future (or Alabama and Ohio State have a loss coming) so will ratings have undefeated UCF (who will have to beat USF, Cin, Temple and probably Houston) still behind these teams. If NC State goes undefeated they beat Clemson and are likely in. Would love to see NC State go undefeated until ECU and lose to ECU, that would be P5 karma! Then let's see the argument to keep out an undefeated UCF, USF or Cincinnati.

 

[Chuck]

The only chance UCF has to make the playoffs, in my opinion, is for them to go undefeated and to have only 3 teams from the P5/ND conferences to have less than 2 losses. Every 1 loss P5/ND team will be ahead of them (even if they currently aren't). I think it's possible that a 2 loss P5/ND team will still go ahead of them, but it may be too politically incorrect to do that to a team that wouldn't have lost a game for 2 years.

It seems like most articles I've read have been pushing the narrative that UCF has no shot and it's their own fault (out of conference SOS). Whether that's true or not doesn't matter.

Then again, my other prediction is that if UCF does somehow make the playoff, the Big 12 will decide to expand with them (and USF or Cincy) to pick the hot team. UConn's Law.

 

[HartfordHank]

Would love to see NC State go undefeated until ECU and lose to ECU, that would be P5 karma!

If NC State goes undefeated they will not play ECU on December 1. They will play in the ACC Championship game on December 1!

 

[DoctorWho85]

A come behind victory against a bad team that handed them the victory isn’t really an argument in their favor...

Nailed that one on the head. UCF was lucky they stayed at 10 this week with that ugly game against Memphis

 

[Dooley]

UCF desperately needs Cincinnati and USF to stay in the top 20. What would *really* help UCF is if Navy can knock off Notre Dame next weekend but that's highly unlikely. Notre Dame's second half schedule looks like a P5 independent's version of UCF's first half. Navy, Northwestern and Syracuse are not needle movers by any stretch. Florida State is awful. USC is talented but JT Daniels has shown an exceptional ability to look like a true FR so far. Still, the final road game at USC might be Notre Dame's best chance at a loss.

What I'm really rooting for and so should all of you - the lack of a 13th Championship Game costing Notre Dame a spot in the Playoff. That would ensure either the Playoff being expanded (good for G5) or Notre Dame pressured into joining the ACC finally (potentially good to add a 16th member).

 

[DoctorWho85]

UCF desperately needs Cincinnati and USF to stay in the top 20. What would *really* help UCF is if Navy can knock off Notre Dame next weekend but that's highly unlikely. Notre Dame's second half schedule looks like a P5 independent's version of UCF's first half. Navy, Northwestern and Syracuse are not needle movers by any stretch. Florida State is awful. USC is talented but JT Daniels has shown an exceptional ability to look like a true FR so far. Still, the final road game at USC might be Notre Dame's best chance at a loss.

What I'm really rooting for and so should all of you - the lack of a 13th Championship Game costing Notre Dame a spot in the Playoff. That would ensure either the Playoff being expanded (good for G5) or Notre Dame pressured into joining the ACC finally (potentially good to add a 16th member).

Not playing on the championship game has helped Alabama several times. The top 4 isn't who's the best team, it's who's going to make the most money for the NCAA.

 

[whaler11]

UCF desperately needs Cincinnati and USF to stay in the top 20. What would *really* help UCF is if Navy can knock off Notre Dame next weekend but that's highly unlikely. Notre Dame's second half schedule looks like a P5 independent's version of UCF's first half. Navy, Northwestern and Syracuse are not needle movers by any stretch. Florida State is awful. USC is talented but JT Daniels has shown an exceptional ability to look like a true FR so far. Still, the final road game at USC might be Notre Dame's best chance at a loss.

What I'm really rooting for and so should all of you - the lack of a 13th Championship Game costing Notre Dame a spot in the Playoff. That would ensure either the Playoff being expanded (good for G5) or Notre Dame pressured into joining the ACC finally (potentially good to add a 16th member).

Save yourself the stress. If Notre Dame is 12-0 they are in. It would take 4 undefeated P5 teams to keep them out and we already know that can’t happen.

 

[Guapo]

Not playing on the championship game has helped Alabama several times. The top 4 isn't who's the best team, it's who's going to make the most money for the NCAA.

The NCAA doesn’t make money from the CFP

(The NCAA has absolutely nothing to do with the CFP)

 

[DoctorWho85]

The NCAA doesn’t make money from the CFP

(The NCAA has absolutely nothing to do with the CFP)

Ok sorry the Bowl System not NCAA

 

[Afroabe224]

I believe an AAC team can (technically) have a shot at the playoff but the stars need to align and it is certainly a 2-3 year process including all of the following:
-NY6 win over P5 team in prior year
-1 or fewer losses in prior year
-2+ P5 top 15 wins in current season
-2/3 wins over ranked conference teams in AAC (ranked 15-25)
-13-0 record on selection day

The lack of top 15 P5 wins (which is out of their control) will doom UCF this season. The only AAC that had a real shot was Houston in 2016 (beat #3 Oklahoma/#5 L'Ville after an NY6 win the prior year). I believe they would have taken Washington's #4 seed and subsequent beatdown at the hands of Bama if they had handled their AAC business that year.

For 2018, UCF is only #10 because of what they did last year. They were clearly better in 2017 with Scott Frost. But hey, if they win out this year, beat a Michigan/Texas type team on New Years and win out again next year, they'll have a 40-something game win streak and a real shot at the 2019 Playoff. So in summation, the system is totally fair as-is.

 

[Adios]

I believe an AAC team can (technically) have a shot at the playoff but the stars need to align and it is certainly a 2-3 year process including all of the following:
-NY6 win over P5 team in prior year
-1 or fewer losses in prior year
-2+ P5 top 15 wins in current season
-2/3 wins over ranked conference teams in AAC (ranked 15-25)
-13-0 record on selection day

The lack of top 15 P5 wins (which is out of their control) will doom UCF this season. The only AAC that had a real shot was Houston in 2016 (beat #3 Oklahoma/#5 L'Ville after an NY6 win the prior year). I believe they would have taken Washington's #4 seed and subsequent beatdown at the hands of Bama if they had handled their AAC business that year.

For 2018, UCF is only #10 because of what they did last year. They were clearly better in 2017 with Scott Frost. But hey, if they win out this year, beat a Michigan/Texas type team on New Years and win out again next year, they'll have a 40-something game win streak and a real shot at the 2019 Playoff. So in summation, the system is totally fair as-is.

So Diaco screwed up the AAC's best shot at getting a team in? Great.

 

[UConnTrumbull]

An AAC team will never be in a playoff unless it expands to 8.

 

[billybud]

Wins vs losses are important...But "wins" must be qualified.

"Wins" have a quality attached to them.....

Strength of schedule, after all, is what separates a 6-1 Buffalo from a 6-1 Michigan.

And UCF's current SOS is awful...ranked #131 (Sagarin)...

 

[MilliniumPrince]

The deck is stacked against them to start being in the AAC. Schedules are set many years in advance and you can only play the games on your schedule (or not if cancelled). Take the underlying message here for a seemingly popular perspective @ this point - not the source:

Stack UCF's record against Texas and there isn't much difference. Texas' SOS if boosted because of OU. Take a look at the Murderers Row OU has defeated this far...... Then remember Texas lost to Maryland, at home.

UFC should have moved up to at least the #8 spot. Politics and pre-season rankings are the the root cause. Neither is going away anytime soon.

SOS of schedule is a bogus measure at this point because it is so highly dependant on preseason rankings.

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

UCF desperately needs Cincinnati and USF to stay in the top 20. What would *really* help UCF is if Navy can knock off Notre Dame next weekend but that's highly unlikely. Notre Dame's second half schedule looks like a P5 independent's version of UCF's first half. Navy, Northwestern and Syracuse are not needle movers by any stretch. Florida State is awful. USC is talented but JT Daniels has shown an exceptional ability to look like a true FR so far. Still, the final road game at USC might be Notre Dame's best chance at a loss.

What I'm really rooting for and so should all of you - the lack of a 13th Championship Game costing Notre Dame a spot in the Playoff. That would ensure either the Playoff being expanded (good for G5) or Notre Dame pressured into joining the ACC finally (potentially good to add a 16th member).

Unfortunately for these 3 teams, they all have to play each other. Someone is coming out of that with 2 losses and slip out of the rankings.

 

[Dooley]

Unfortunately for these 3 teams, they all have to play each other. Someone is coming out of that with 2 losses and slip out of the rankings.

Yeah, probably. That seems to be the AAC penalty: lose against another top 20 AAC team and be immediately banned to the college football outer rim to allow P5 top 20 losers to stay put.