OT: Question for seasoned sports bettors

[Waquoit]

I can't really find this answer out there to my satisfaction so I'm going to the experts. In poker they have the rake, horses have the takeout, in sports they have the vig. So say you bet a 5-game parlay, aren't they taking the vig 5 separate times? That's seems very tough to overcome. The pick-5 in horse racing has only one takeout and almost always pays much more than the parlay.

 

[twiceahusky]

On Fanduel, a 5 team parlay (all with “even” odds, or each team at -110) pays $2,435. It should pay $3,100 if there was no vig. (They price it by hitting each additional leg with a vig).

So if you bet 32 5-team parlays for $100 each, probability says you should win one (+$2,435) and lose 31 (-$3,100) for an expected value of a net loss of $665.

Very difficult to win long term, with or without parlays.

I imagine winning long term in horses is tough too .

 

[CbbisGreat]

As a former bookie , have never seen a parlay better win with any degree of consistency. It is difficult enough to pick the winner of one game at a time. If you value your money stay away from parlays, particularly multiple team parlays.

 

[Deepster]

As a former bookie , have never seen a parlay better win with any degree of consistency. It is difficult enough to pick the winner of one game at a time. If you value your money stay away from parlays, particularly multiple team parlays.

What about parlays that include player performance items?

So, say I bet the Chiefs to beat the Chargers. And I take Mahomes with over 1.5 TDs and Kelce with over 5.5 catches.

If KC wins, Mahomes and Kelce are going to have good games, generally speaking.

It’s not like parlaying three completely unrelated items like the Chiefs, the Eagles and the Ravens.

 

[Waquoit]

(They price it by hitting each additional leg with a vig).

Thank you. That's what I thought but I never saw it in writing before.

 

[auror]

To win consistently in sports betting, you need to have an edge or angle that is large enough to make your actual probability of winning more than the difference of what the vig takes away.

The only way to make it work for parlays, your edge has to be in tact for every game/team that you bet. If you're just a "ball knower" bettor, it's very tough to "know ball" to the extent required to have a sufficient edge for every leg of a parlay.

You'd likely need to have some sort of system with a correlated edge across a whole league, and even then probably a better idea just to bet individually to reduce portfolio risk.

 

[Deepster]

There are also apps now that will monitor multiple betting apps and give you bets where you can make bets on both sides on different apps and guarantee a positive return. It’s a long game of mining for the gaps and doesn’t sound like much fun but foolproof.

 

[twiceahusky]

Thank you. That's what I thought but I never saw it in writing before.

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What about parlays that include player performance items?

So, say I bet the Chiefs to beat the Chargers. And I take Mahomes with over 1.5 TDs and Kelce with over 5.5 catches.

If KC wins, Mahomes and Kelce are going to have good games, generally speaking.

It’s not like parlaying three completely unrelated items like the Chiefs, the Eagles and the Ravens.

They price that in there … things that correlate (or cause??) are either not allowed, or they price it in.

For example, tonight Indiana is +5 underdog vs Atlanta (both are -110).

• If you parlay Indiana’s Mitchell getting over 18.5 pts with Indiana +5, you get +173 odds.
• If you parlay that same Indiana’s Mitchell getting over 18.5 pts with Atlanta -5, you get +341 odds

Since Mitchell scoring lots helps Indiana, the payout is much lower.

Good thinking, but hard to get an edge on the house.

 

[Deepster]

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They price that in there … things that correlate (or cause??) are either not allowed, or they price it in.

For example, tonight Indiana is +5 underdog vs Atlanta (both are -110).

• If you parlay Indiana’s Mitchell getting over 18.5 pts with Indiana +5, you get +173 odds.
• If you parlay that same Indiana’s Mitchell getting over 18.5 pts with Atlanta -5, you get +341 odds

Since Mitchell scoring lots helps Indiana, the payout is much lower.

Good thinking, but hard to get an edge on the house.

I should have known. I play a lot in games during baseball season and a single play can swing the odds dramatically. Those algorithms don’t miss a beat.