Quad 1 Away W's

[OkaForPrez]

Of the top 25 teams currently ranked in the NET. Only 14 have a Quad 1 road win.

Only 3 - UNC, UConn and Wisconsin have 2. Top 25 teams in the NET without a Q1 road win:

Purdue, Iowa State, Kansas, Baylor, Duke, Illinois, Michigan State, Colorado State, Utah State.

@okaforprez sr texted earlier this week that Saturday Night is a "trap game" No such thing as Q1 Road Trap Games. They are all penciled in losses until you steal them. 8 pm, Saturday Night with the #1 target on our back. This will be a real test.


Here's the total list of Q1 Road wins from the top 25.

Houston @ Xavier
Arizona @ Duke
BYU @ UCF
Alabama @ Mississippi St.
Tennessee @ Wisconsin
UNC @ Clemson
UNC @ NC State
UConn @ Butler
UConn @ Xavier
Wisconsin @ MSU
Wisconsin @Ohio State
Creighton @ Nebraska
Kentucky @ Florida
Marquette @ Illinois
Dayton @ SMU
San Diego State @ Gonzaga
Utah @ St. Mary's

 

[Dove]

I assume Nova is a Quad 1. And soon to be #3 for us?

 

[OkaForPrez]

I assume Nova is a Quad 1. And soon to be #3 for us?

Yes, here's our current Q1's left on the schedule (this is fluid).

Nova away
SJU away
Marquette home
Creighton away
Marquette away
providence away

St. Johns home W could climb into a Q1 if they can move up from 36 at current into the top 30.

The Gonzaga win could drop out if they fall from 46 outside the top 50.

Nova and Xavier are also in the 30's range so if they climb into the top 30 those games would end up Q1.

We will likely end up with 12-13 Q1 games.

 

[auror]

Classic trap game on Saturday.

 

[Palatine]

 

[BigErnMcCracken]

Classic trap game on Saturday.

I’m at the point where I have no idea if this is sarcasm.

 

[bballgrda]

I’m at the point where I have no idea if this is sarcasm.

It clearly is. Consider the source.

I suppose it could also be a “meta” post commenting on the semantics of what is trap game.

 

[BGesus4]

This is a trap season if you ask me

 

[AntG168]

Classic trap game on Saturday.

Nothing is a trap game when you’re chasing history

 

[WhereistheDove?]

I’m at the point where I have no idea if this is sarcasm.

You know, a classic trap game where you’re looking past the good team on the road and looking forward to 9-8 Xavier at home afterwards.

 

[auror]

You know, a classic trap game where you’re looking past the good team on the road and looking forward to 9-8 Xavier at home afterwards.

Exactly. There's a classic trap game next week, which makes the team focus on that one to avoid the trap game aspect, making this one today now a trap game.

 

[WhereistheDove?]

Exactly. There's a classic trap game next week, which makes the team focus on that one to avoid the trap game aspect, making this one today now a trap game.

 

[OkaForPrez]

We are the only team in the country with three quad 1 road wins.

 

[REB1094]

We are the only team in the country with three quad 1 road wins.

And #2 for total Q1 wins. Purdue 7, UConn 6, Arizona/Wisconsin 5

 

[OkaForPrez]

So I did some math to break down the net top 40 quad 1 a bit:

Home teams vs top 30 (31-12) 72%
Neutral teams vs top 50 (38-35) 52%
Road teams vs top 75 (31-66) 32%

The top 20 is just 7-11 on the road against teams ranked 50-70 and that includes uconn at 3-2. Teams other than uconn are 4-9.

It is really really hard to do.

 

[JohnnyJr]

One of purdues losses dropped to Q2

 

[Tenspro2002]

So I did some math to break down the net top 40 quad 1 a bit:

Home teams vs top 30 (31-12) 72%
Neutral teams vs top 50 (38-35) 52%
Road teams vs top 75 (31-66) 32%

The top 20 is just 7-11 on the road against teams ranked 50-70 and that includes uconn at 3-2. Teams other than uconn are 4-9.

It is really really hard to do.

Aren't each of these supposed to be equally difficult? This suggests that the NET categories should be weighted even more strongly for road games (like, Q1 at home only through top 20, but road wins up to top 100).

 

[OkaForPrez]

Aren't each of these supposed to be equally difficult? This suggests that the NET categories should be weighted even more strongly for road games (like, Q1 at home only through top 20, but road wins up to top 100).

Exactly. The thresholds clearly don’t work as intended. To do this properly you need to look back at 3 years worth of data and draw the tiers in such a way that makes each outcome equally likely, otherwise all the quad record indicates is the ratio of how many opportunities you got at home vs neutral vs road.

It’s possible that this is an outlier of a season and an short slice of one at that, but I doubt it.

I’m going to keep an eye on this for the rest of the season.

 

[okaforprez sr]

Nice work chip!