I am leaving for Chile tomorrow and won't return until Monday. So, I will be missing the game and will have to watch the replay. I will try to put my prognostication up when the thread goes up from the hotel in Chile. So, I thought I would post this analysis a little earlier than usual. I know there is always someone who will poo-poo the individual match-ups but, it should be noted that individual match-ups in an analysis are never, ever meant to be perfect...they are meant to establish some baseline conclusions by taking a look at the talent, stats of players based on the positions they play. There are always variables such as maybe the team will play zone and there won't be any 1 on 1 match-ups...but that should stop anyone from comparing the production at each position based on the players that play those positions. Also, because of the volatility of the health status of individual players it is hard to predict with any certainty who will actually be playing. So, this analysis will assume that both Nika Muhl and Dorka Jurasz will be back on Sunday. Finally, because UConn has played significantly more difficult competition than Florida State the stats are not exactly comparing oranges with oranges.
Mikayla Timpson 6'2", Sophomore, Forward vs Aaliyah Edwards 6'3", Junior, Forward - Statistically these players are the same player...Mikayla averages 13.4 points per game and 9.6 rebounds per game while Edwards averages 15.9 points per game and 9.7 rebounds per game. However, UConn is ranked number 5 in SOS and 1st in RPI while Florida State is 61 in SOS and 41 in RPI. Quite simply Florida State has not been challenged like UConn has. Due to the injuries that have plagued UConn Edwards has had to step it up and shoulder the burden and she has done so admirably. ADVANTAGE: UConn
Ta'niya Latson 5'8" Freshman, Guard vs Nika Muhl 5'10", Junior, Guard - Now this match-up on paper looks like a mis-match as Ta'niya is Florida States best offensive weapon and she is just a freshmen...this kid can and probably will be something special. She averages 25.5 points per game. Nika is going to have to be the pest that she is and with a little help from her teammates she will have to make Ta'niya uncomfortable. Taking her out of her comfort zone and limiting her offensive contributions could have a destabilizing effect on the rest of the team. Nika is the glue that keeps UConn rolling...he 10 assists per game lead the nation and while Nika won't likely match Ta'niya's offensive output she will make-up for it by making her teammates better. ADVANTAGE - EVEN
Taylor O'Brien 5'9" Graduate, Guard vs Lou Lopez-Senechal 6'1" Graduate, Guard/Forward - Here is another case where the players are statistically pretty much the same. Taylor averages 16.3 points per game and 4.7 rebounds per game while Lou averages 17.3 points per game and 3.1 rebounds per game. However, Lou is more of a complete player than Taylor is...for example Lou averages 3 threes per game while Taylor isn't much of a perimeter shooter. And then there is the level of competition thing mentioned earlier in the analysis. ADVANTAGE - UConn
Erin Howard 6'1" Redshirt Senior, Forward vs Aubrey Griffin 6'1" Redshirt Junior, Forward - God, I love watching Aubrey play...she is such a specimen...her athleticism is more often than not going to catch you saying to yourself...wow! That was amazing. She is offensively a handful for Erin to handle...she has a quick first step that gets her by her opponents as she explodes to the rim. She has jumping ability and a nose for the ball which has resulted in her averaging 7.6 rebounds per game. She has let the offense come to her and has benefitted this year and is maintaining a 13.7 point average. She too has taken upon herself to step it up to compensate for all the injuries UConn players have acquired. Erin is no slouch she is a solid ball player, as a 5th year player brings a lot of experience and she is averaging 8.5 points per game and 6.6 rebounds per game. She can shoot the three and she brings defensive intensity to her game with 1.6 steals per game. Aubrey also brings the defensive intensity with 2 steals per game...this match-up could end up being quite entertaining to watch. ADVANTAGE - UConn
Jazmine Masengill 6'0" Graduate, Guard vs Caroline Ducharme 6'2" Sophomore, Guard - Jazmine Massengill is a spark-plug for Florida State she leads her team in assists with 3.7 per game, she can hit the three (averages 1 per game), brings the defensive intensity and averages 1 steal per game. She is tailor made for Caroline as she works her way back into shape... She averages 6.3 points per game and 4.5 rebounds per game while Caroline averages 6 points per game and 3.5 rebounds per game. Statistically pretty evenly matched. We all know what we have with Caroline...she is struggling to get back into form with her past injuries and surgery. Each game she seems to be getting better and better. Unless she has a break-out game I don't see dominance at this position by either player. ADVANTAGE - EVEN
Bench:
Florida State - Sarah Bejedi 5'7" guard: Mariana Valenzuela 6'2" Forward; O'mariah Gordon 5'4" guard; Brianna Tunage 6'1" guard
UConn - Dorka Juhasz 6'5" Forward; Ayanna Patterson 6'2" Forward; Amari DeBerry 6'5" Forward; Ines Bettencourt 5'9" guard.
Florida's bench produces 28.7 points per game and 11.9 rebounds per game while UConn's bench produces 18.4 points per game and 16.2 rebounds per game. If Dorka plays I believe she will see limited minutes and her production will be below her 10 points / 10 rebounds averages...remember she has only played in 2 games this season and has sat out the last 7 games...she will be coming back with a cast of something on her thumb which thankfully is not her shooting hand. ADVANTAGE - EVEN
Intangibles: UConn is just better prepared based on the competition they have been playing. They are coming off a loss and they just haven't lost two games in a row (knock on wood) in a really long time. I think UConn brings a lot of size off the bench and Florida is going to have a hard time containing UConn in the paint. ADVANTAGE UCONN
Coaching: Geno and staff...just too good: ADVANTAGE UCONN
This will be a UConn win: 88 to 71 MOV - 17 points
Uconn 90-63
