Profile 3/3 Version

[Storrs South]

I hate to be a pessimist but, I do not see a path to getting a 7 seed unless they win out (Marquette, Seton Hall, win all 3 games in BET). That would amount to likely 4 Quad 1 wins, which is a lot to ask but the reason they likely need it is all the metrics are lagging and everyone in front of them continues to do well. In addition, we have seen in recent years conference tournament results mean significantly less than anything prior so it needs to be quite notable to change things.

The teams in front of UConn in Bracket Matrix are

• Gonzaga NET 8, KP 8 but beat them head to head
• BYU NET 24, KP 23
• Illinois NET 17, KP 19
• Memphis NET 47 but beat us head to head, KP 50
• Mississippi NET 28, KP 26
• Kansas NET 21, KP 22
• UCLA NET 26, KP 27

All of these teams have better metrics than UConn, except one we lost to head to head. Not just better metrics, but drastically better. Whereas UConn sits in the mid 30s, all these teams sit in the mid 20s or teens and they keep winning (except for Kansas).

Now UConn does not need to pass all these schools but they will need to pass 4-5 of them most likely.

The only alternative is make Big East final, which is still finishing next 5 as going 4-1 but UConn starts beating teams by huge margins, which they have not shown a lot of ability to do this season outside Providence last weekend.

Unfortunately, Liam's injury completely hamstrung this team from losing some games they probably would have won like @ X and @ Nova that would reduce the margin of error but I think they are out of time to get past the 8/9 game.

 

[jake14mw]

It seems as though your point of emphasis is that the team you root (not "route") for is more likely to lose than than win. Realistically that's true of every team that makes the NCAA Tournament, except for the eventual winner. Nevertheless, I think that you are defending honest pessimism more so than honest realism because your words remain speculative in advance of known outcomes.

The point of this thread was discussing UConn's seeding in the NCAA tournament. The OP stated that if they win the last two games and the first two games of the BE tourney, then we could be a 7, maybe a 6 seed. My point was that I would love to see a 7 seed, but it was more likely that we would not win four games in a row. According to ESPN, they have a 61.7% chance to win tonight. I'm not going to do the math, but I think it's safe to say that stating the odds of them not winning 4 in a row is not LIKELY does not qualify as pessimism.

I maintain that such attitudes run counter to what's desired, and this contrary psychic energy reduces the possibility that what's desired will be achieved. I question why this is done.

Who made you the arbiter on what is desired on this board? MY desire is to come to this open board to discuss and debate and learn from each other. It would be really boring here if it was just a bunch of UConn rah rah.

As far as the psychic energy stuff... if you believe that what people post on this board has any affect on the possibility of UConn winning, then yes, I believe that's not likely, or even remotely possible, so we won't agree on much, and that's okay with me. I'm on to enjoying my next debate here.

 

[jake14mw]

I hate to be a pessimist but, I do not see a path to getting a 7 seed unless they win out (Marquette, Seton Hall, win all 3 games in BET). That would amount to likely 4 Quad 1 wins, which is a lot to ask but the reason they likely need it is all the metrics are lagging and everyone in front of them continues to do well. In addition, we have seen in recent years conference tournament results mean significantly less than anything prior so it needs to be quite notable to change things.

The teams in front of UConn in Bracket Matrix are

• Gonzaga NET 8, KP 8 but beat them head to head
• BYU NET 24, KP 23
• Illinois NET 17, KP 19
• Memphis NET 47 but beat us head to head, KP 50
• Mississippi NET 28, KP 26
• Kansas NET 21, KP 22
• UCLA NET 26, KP 27

All of these teams have better metrics than UConn, except one we lost to head to head. Not just better metrics, but drastically better. Whereas UConn sits in the mid 30s, all these teams sit in the mid 20s or teens and they keep winning (except for Kansas).

Now UConn does not need to pass all these schools but they will need to pass 4-5 of them most likely.

The only alternative is make Big East final, which is still finishing next 5 as going 4-1 but UConn starts beating teams by huge margins, which they have not shown a lot of ability to do this season outside Providence last weekend.

Unfortunately, Liam's injury completely hamstrung this team from losing some games they probably would have won like @ X and @ Nova that would reduce the margin of error but I think they are out of time to get past the 8/9 game.

I hope you're wrong. I'm still hoping for a 7, even if we lose the BE final. Your logic seems pretty solid though.

 

[ctbro1999]

I hate to be a pessimist but, I do not see a path to getting a 7 seed unless they win out (Marquette, Seton Hall, win all 3 games in BET). That would amount to likely 4 Quad 1 wins, which is a lot to ask but the reason they likely need it is all the metrics are lagging and everyone in front of them continues to do well. In addition, we have seen in recent years conference tournament results mean significantly less than anything prior so it needs to be quite notable to change things.

The teams in front of UConn in Bracket Matrix are

• Gonzaga NET 8, KP 8 but beat them head to head
• BYU NET 24, KP 23
• Illinois NET 17, KP 19
• Memphis NET 47 but beat us head to head, KP 50
• Mississippi NET 28, KP 26
• Kansas NET 21, KP 22
• UCLA NET 26, KP 27

All of these teams have better metrics than UConn, except one we lost to head to head. Not just better metrics, but drastically better. Whereas UConn sits in the mid 30s, all these teams sit in the mid 20s or teens and they keep winning (except for Kansas).

Now UConn does not need to pass all these schools but they will need to pass 4-5 of them most likely.

The only alternative is make Big East final, which is still finishing next 5 as going 4-1 but UConn starts beating teams by huge margins, which they have not shown a lot of ability to do this season outside Providence last weekend.

Unfortunately, Liam's injury completely hamstrung this team from losing some games they probably would have won like @ X and @ Nova that would reduce the margin of error but I think they are out of time to get past the 8/9 game.

The Seton Hell loss hurts 2-fold: 1) it's a horrible near Q4 loss, but 2) it eliminates any chance the committee might have given us a break seeding-wise not having Liam for 8 games when he was injured. He was healthy for that game yet we still lost. Like literally the Hall loss may have cost us 2 seed lines all by itself.

 

[UCLJ0211]

I hate to be a pessimist but, I do not see a path to getting a 7 seed unless they win out (Marquette, Seton Hall, win all 3 games in BET). That would amount to likely 4 Quad 1 wins, which is a lot to ask but the reason they likely need it is all the metrics are lagging and everyone in front of them continues to do well. In addition, we have seen in recent years conference tournament results mean significantly less than anything prior so it needs to be quite notable to change things.

The teams in front of UConn in Bracket Matrix are

• Gonzaga NET 8, KP 8 but beat them head to head
• BYU NET 24, KP 23
• Illinois NET 17, KP 19
• Memphis NET 47 but beat us head to head, KP 50
• Mississippi NET 28, KP 26
• Kansas NET 21, KP 22
• UCLA NET 26, KP 27

All of these teams have better metrics than UConn, except one we lost to head to head. Not just better metrics, but drastically better. Whereas UConn sits in the mid 30s, all these teams sit in the mid 20s or teens and they keep winning (except for Kansas).

Now UConn does not need to pass all these schools but they will need to pass 4-5 of them most likely.

The only alternative is make Big East final, which is still finishing next 5 as going 4-1 but UConn starts beating teams by huge margins, which they have not shown a lot of ability to do this season outside Providence last weekend.

Unfortunately, Liam's injury completely hamstrung this team from losing some games they probably would have won like @ X and @ Nova that would reduce the margin of error but I think they are out of time to get past the 8/9 game.

If we make the BET final I could see us have a shot at a 7 seed, winning the BET could even get us an 6 seed. Keep in mind, Ole Miss has to play Tennessee and Florida so those are both likely losses. (However, they are also opportunities to improve their seed.) Kansas has to play Arizona. BYU just beat Iowa State so their seed will improve. Point is there are still several games to play and opportunities to move up (or down). Will be interesting to see how it plays out.