Profile 2/24 Version

[BFieldHusky]

I'll update this weekly, and then daily once we get closer to Selection Sunday, which is 20 days away!

18-9. 10-6 in the BE. Home: 11-2/ Away: 6-4/ Neutral: 1-3

Our metrics as of this morning:

NET: 37
KenPom: 38
ESPN BPI: 21

Quad 1: 5-5
Quad 2: 4-3
Quad 3: 4-1
Quad 4: 5-0

Notable Wins (NET rankings)

Baylor (H) 30
Texas (A) 38
Gonzaga (N) 10
Marquette (A) 27
Creighton (A) 35

Notable Losses:

Colorado (N) 94
Dayton (N) 76
Seton Hall (A) 213

Bracketology:

Jerry Palm: 9 (2/24)
Joe Lunardi: 8 (2/21)
Mike Decourcy 8 (2/21)

Commentary: UConn is clearly on the 8/9 line as they head into the final four games of the regular season. The positives are the 5 Quad 1 wins, with 4 of those of those wins coming away from home. The negatives are the last two losses in Maui, and the loss to Seton Hall. This team is in the tournament now, and has a little wiggle room.

What's interesting is the last 4 games of the season don't have a ton to gain in terms of moving the needle. A home win against Marquette helps, but not a ton. But losing to Providence, Georgetown, or Seton Hall would hurt our resume.

For now, we need to focus on trying to win our last 4 games, 3 of which are at home. This would get us the 3 seed in the Big East tournament, which I think is our better option. We would most likely play a desperate Villanova team in the quaterfinals, but with an additional day of rest. A win there most likely sets up an essential home game against Creighton in the semifinals.

I think if UConn can get to the BE finals, and win their last 4 regular season games, they can get to the 6-7 line. Which is a HUGE difference in the quality of opponent they could face in the early rounds.

 

[UofCT]

Good write up and update

 

[BlueandOG]

Thank you. I left MSG with a pit in my stomach. Your research provides important context.

 

[Hurleyman216]

We have shot the ball extremely poorly from 3 recently. When we're making 3's it hides many of our defensive flaws and the team seems to feed off of our offense. I'm hoping AK hitting some shots gets him out of his slump. If AK/McNeeley and Ball start raining 3's and hitting at 40%+ then we can hang with and beat any team. We constructed our roster and offense around shooting the 3, but the players need to make the open shots for all of that to work.

 

[Matt1010]

We should have a decent shot at getting up to the 7 seed by finishing 4-0 (disregarding BET) or 3-1 and a BET finals appearance.

 

[Storrs South]

We have shot the ball extremely poorly from 3 recently. When we're making 3's it hides many of our defensive flaws and the team seems to feed off of our offense. I'm hoping AK hitting some shots gets him out of his slump. If AK/McNeeley and Ball start raining 3's and hitting at 40%+ then we can hang with and beat any team. We constructed our roster and offense around shooting the 3, but the players need to make the open shots for all of that to work.

The biggest issue is there has not been a single game except Marquette that has taken place since the New Year where multiple guys are clicking. It's been this mess of one guy has it today and that's it.

If Liam is on, AK and Solo are off. If Solo is on Liam and AK are off. And so on.

I don't know why they can't ever sync up and all get it going.

The ceiling of this team is built around those 3 being serious offensive weapons, but not by themselves: as a trio.

 

[Kemba15]

I'll update this weekly, and then daily once we get closer to Selection Sunday, which is 20 days away!

18-9. 10-6 in the BE. Home: 11-2/ Away: 6-4/ Neutral: 1-3

Our metrics as of this morning:

NET: 37
KenPom: 38
ESPN BPI: 21

Quad 1: 5-5
Quad 2: 4-3
Quad 3: 4-1
Quad 4: 5-0

Notable Wins (NET rankings)

Baylor (H) 30
Texas (A) 38
Gonzaga (N) 10
Marquette (A) 27
Creighton (A) 35

Notable Losses:

Colorado (N) 94
Dayton (N) 76
Seton Hall (A) 213

Bracketology:

Jerry Palm: 9 (2/24)
Joe Lunardi: 8 (2/21)
Mike Decourcy 8 (2/21)

Commentary: UConn is clearly on the 8/9 line as they head into the final four games of the regular season. The positives are the 5 Quad 1 wins, with 4 of those of those wins coming away from home. The negatives are the last two losses in Maui, and the loss to Seton Hall. This team is in the tournament now, and has a little wiggle room.

What's interesting is the last 4 games of the season don't have a ton to gain in terms of moving the needle. A home win against Marquette helps, but not a ton. But losing to Providence, Georgetown, or Seton Hall would hurt our resume.

For now, we need to focus on trying to win our last 4 games, 3 of which are at home. This would get us the 3 seed in the Big East tournament, which I think is our better option. We would most likely play a desperate Villanova team in the quaterfinals, but with an additional day of rest. A win there most likely sets up an essential home game against Creighton in the semifinals.

I think if UConn can get to the BE finals, and win their last 4 regular season games, they can get to the 6-7 line. Which is a HUGE difference in the quality of opponent they could face in the early rounds.

Will just add that to get the 3 seed in the BET, the Marquette game is especially important since we've already beaten them. In fact, if we win that game we may be able to (though not certainly) lose another game of the 4 and still get the 3.

 

[Hurleyman216]

The biggest issue is there has not been a single game except Marquette that has taken place since the New Year where multiple guys are clicking. It's been this mess of one guy has it today and that's it.

If Liam is on, AK and Solo are off. If Solo is on Liam and AK are off. And so on.

I don't know why they can't ever sync up and all get it going.

The ceiling of this team is built around those 3 being serious offensive weapons, but not by themselves: as a trio.

Yeah exactly...it's maddening. Karaban has been through these slumps before, but this is probably the worst we've seen from him by far. Hoping that Saturday was a break out of the poor shooting for him. Ball and McNeeley have been streaky, but when all 3 of them ever get going at the same time (or even 2 out of 3) then we are dangerous. Honestly, I still chalk some of it up to lack of freedom of movement on offense. Hurley has gone away from the constant motion offense for a couple of reasons. First, we are only playing 7 guys, so it's tiring to run that offense for 40 minutes. But secondly and most importantly is that the officiating in the big east allows clutching/holding/grabbing at will and it totally blows up our offense.

If Diarra can get healthy we have 2 guys that are a threat to drive (Diarra and McNeeley). We also have Reed down low who we know has the ability to dominate if he can stay out of foul trouble. I don't feel great about us competing with some of the SEC teams at the top of the rankings as they all seem to be strong/athletic like St. Johns, but we can definitely take some teams out in March if our shooting turns around.

 

[husky429]

Man that Seton Hall loss was horrendous.

 

[bendm]

Can someone explain how Gonzaga is 10th in NET when they’re unranked and also projected 8 seed? Is someone cooking the books for them?

 

[auror]

Can someone explain how Gonzaga is 10th in NET when they’re unranked and also projected 8 seed? Is someone cooking the books for them?

4 of their first 5 games they won by awesome margins relative to expectations (Baylor by 43). And then in conference play they started stomping teams aside from SMC like they usually do (Pepperdine by 52).

But people aren't really buying it. A lot of the brackets that have released after the SMC loss have them 9/10 (with an 11 in there).

 

[Huskyforlife]

4 of their first 5 games they won by awesome margins relative to expectations (Baylor by 43). And then in conference play they started stomping teams aside from SMC like they usually do (Pepperdine by 52).

But people aren't really buying it. A lot of the brackets that have released after the SMC loss have them 9/10 (with an 11 in there).

They’re 11th right now on Kenpom, that seems insane to have them at 9/10.

 

[RuffRuff]

We'd really have to play ourselves out of a bid, as the schedule is favorable down the stretch. A Sorber-less Gtown at home looks good, as does a SH Gampel game. Marquette is bottoming out and PC is just not good. 3 of 4 at home and the other an hour down the road. I feel pretty good we go 3-1 minimum, even as poorly as we've looked. We'll be favored in all 4.

While I know the metrics are showing BET 4 seed, Marquette's remaining schedule is much harder and we play them head to head at home. That feels like a BE 3 seed to me by odds, which would give us a Nova team in the first round of the BET. Whoever we play in that first round of the BET will be very motivated, and talented enough to beat us (Xavier or Nova).

I honestly wouldn't be upset this year if we lost early in the BET if our NCAA bid was locked. I don't think this team has much to gain by making a deep run in the BET and inevitably lose against a StJ team we match up poorly against. I could see rest and dialing in for "one last run" being the better combo. I'd also rather have a 10 seed than an 8-9 to boot.

 

[bendm]

I honestly wouldn't be upset this year if we lost early in the BET if our NCAA bid was locked. I don't think this team has much to gain by making a deep run in the BET and inevitably lose against a StJ team we match up poorly against. I could see rest and dialing in for "one last run" being the better combo. I'd also rather have a 10 seed than an 8-9 to boot.

The question is, would winning out and making a run to the BET finals be enough to get us to a 7? I’d like to think so. SJU could also get upset before then. We could win the whole dang thing.

 

[HooperScooper]

We'd really have to play ourselves out of a bid, as the schedule is favorable down the stretch. A Sorber-less Gtown at home looks good, as does a SH Gampel game. Marquette is bottoming out and PC is just not good. 3 of 4 at home and the other an hour down the road. I feel pretty good we go 3-1 minimum, even as poorly as we've looked. We'll be favored in all 4.

Wait, weren't you the poster who said there was no way UConn was ever going to lose to Seton Hall?

 

[AntG168]

Wait, weren't you the poster who said there was no way UConn was ever going to lose to Seton Hall?

Yea we should just stop talking in absolutes with this team. Good and bad.

 

[RuffRuff]

Wait, weren't you the poster who said there was no way UConn was ever going to lose to Seton Hall?

Sure was! Didn't see that coming. I feel better this time around.

 

[LIuconn]

What realistic scenario plays us out of a bid?
Who are the other bubble teams that can pass us?

 

[RuffRuff]

What realistic scenario plays us out of a bid?
Who are the other bubble teams that can pass us?

If we go 2-3 in the next 5 with only wins against SH home & Gtown home, we'll be dabbling with the bubble.

 

[UofCT]

What realistic scenario plays us out of a bid?
Who are the other bubble teams that can pass us?

0-4 down the stretch, winless in BET, a handful of bid stealers