KU basically played seven guys against UConn. Well six plus spot minutes from Timberlake, Braun and McDowell. UConn only played seven guys.
Let's start with the upperclassmen:
For KU KJ Adams overperformed but no one really underperformed from the other five. Slightly above average for McCullom, slightly below from Hunter. For UConn Newton overperformed but Karaban and Cam played well below average.
KJ Adams had his best game (or at least top 3) in a KU uniform against UConn. I don't see it getting better in a return game. On the flipside his counterpart Karaban had a below average game in many respects. Now it could be all KJ Adams being better, but Karaban also missed at least two pretty open shots from three. And KJ Adams hit some shots he normally doesn't. I'd bet on a rematch being closer. Either way I don't see the potential upside here for KU while I do see some for UConn.
Hunter Dickinson and Clingan, I would say this went pretty much as expected though I can't see how Hunter would do better in a rematch unless he takes and makes more shots from three, which I guess is possible but does KU want him taking more than four threes? If they meet again I assume Clingan will be 100%. Let's just call this even in terms of a future matchup potential.
Newton/Cam and Harris/McCullum. Harris was slightly below average but not far off his normal game this year, McCullum was about on average. Newton played one of his better scoring games and Cam one of his worst. I would say a healthy Cam probably comes close to matching any loss in output Newton has in the next game. If you want to argue Newton's next game has huge downside, I'd argue Cam's can't get worse and he likely makes a few of his open threes. On balance their combined average was only slightly better than normal against KU (37 vs an average of 33). Again, even balancing it out I'd say any "downside" by Newton is matched by potential upside from Cam.
The bench vets:
Timberlake and Braun vs Samson and Diarra. I guess theoretically Timberlake has the most room for improvement because he has been horrendously below expectations all year but that is far below any reasonable expectations right now. I'll say Timberlake suddenly being a competent player for KU is their biggest upside advantage amongst the upperclassmen. I don't know how realistic that is right now. Take away that first game and he is 3/18 from three this year, 7/28 total and averaging 2.1 PPG, he seems to be getting worse by the game instead of better. But a light switch could flip I guess. It's not like he isn't getting minutes either at 12 per game, 11 per if you exclude the first game.
The freshmen starters:
Jackson vs Ball : Jackson played slightly better than Ball in the game but I would say the upside between the two is pretty even. If anything Ball appears to be breaking out sooner than Jackson as witnessed in the UNC game. Still let's call this a toss up in terms of upside.
The freshmen bench:
Furphy was the only KU player to get significant run for KU and I do like him. I think he could be a very good player in a year for KU. However, here is where the significant upside for UConn comes in. Castle is just heads and shoulders better than any player KU has off the bench and will likely be starting in any future matchup. And his upside far outclasses Jackson as well and you would be blind to not see it.
There are some variables though. For KU, can McDowell show his potential? Can Stewart? Neither played much/at all in the game but both have shown glimpses of potential. I'd say McDowells game agianst UT was an eye-opener, but he hasn't done anything since, almost literally.
Throw in the next game being at a neutral site...
Now all that doesn't mean UConn will win the next game. There are too many variables to call that but UConn easily has a significantly higher upside in a fully healthy rematch based solely on Castle.
