Preseason Top 15



bballnut90

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Sharp analysis generally, but I said this at least once before if not here then in another thread: unless someone transfers or quits, there's no scholarship spot for Sniezek even if she got a redshirt year. And rumor is that she's already indicated a plan to grad transfer. Moreover, IMHO, Williams is already a net positive running the point vs. Sniezek because Williams can generate so much more offense on her own and it offsets being a slightly less able facilitator. And with a logjam of shooting guards and wings both on our team (Carrington, Wilson, Hulls x2, Jerome (in her ideal position)) and coming in (Jones, Jump), Williams at the 1 is a much better use for her than at the 2. So I respectfully would disagree with this analysis.

To me, how far Stanford's season goes next year will depend on Dodson making a big leap (har har) over the summer, Fingall coming back from the ACL injury looking at least as good as she was before she went down, and/or Belibi or Prechtel being able to be a strong starting post player by mid-season. We will rise or fall on the basis of our posts, because that's where we lack both depth and seasoned execution.

Forgot to update Sniezek. Read somewhere she's in the transfer portal which makes a lot of sense. Stanford could easily be a Final Four team depending on how Jones adjusts and players improve.
 
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Following up on this...
Tier 1 teams (title favorites):
1. Oregon-Ionsecu is back so they should be the prohibitive front runners alongside Baylor. Everyone is back aside from Cazorla, plus they bring in the younger Sabally. Ionescu will be the heavy favorite for all POY awards next year and anything less than a title will be a disappointment for Oregon.

2. Baylor-they'll be loaded once again with their sophomore class plus Cox. Big losses are Brown and Jackson, but the development of players like Smith, Landrum, Egbo and Decosta should help offset that. So much talent on the roster and Kim has done a stellar job developing her current players.

Tier 2 Team (title contender)
3. Connecticut-they lose 2 greats but still have a very good core of Dangerfield, Williams and Walker. Look for ONO to make strides in the offseason. Aside from that, the cupboard is very thin but UCONN is UCONN. They'll likely add a good grad transfer (or 2) in the offseason.
You're extremely generous to put UConn in a Tier 2 all by themselves.
 
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Right now, Oregon seems to be the clear front runner. If Cox sustained a serious injury, that could really affect Baylor. With her healthy, I’d put them as #2.

For perspective, Notre Dame graduates 75 of the 81 points scored in tonight’s championship game. If Young goes pro, they graduate 79/81 points. Of the top teams, they will take the biggest leap back. They have a ton of production to replace.

As for Uconn, our backcourt will only improve (and likely be best in the country). We will miss the length of Lou on the perimeter, but Megan, Crystal, and Christyn all have the ability to hit the 3. ONO is the clear X factor, as she provides us height and a defensive presence. 10-12 ppg from her would put UConn in the top 5. The big question mark is if Aubrey or an unknown entity will fill the 5th starting spot and what they will be able to produce. I wish there was a way Collier could have a 5th year of eligibility. But I trust Geno will have them performing well.
 
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Right now, Oregon seems to be the clear front runner. If Cox sustained a serious injury, that could really affect Baylor. With her healthy, I’d put them as #2.

For perspective, Notre Dame graduates 75 of the 81 points scored in tonight’s championship game. If Young goes pro, they graduate 79/81 points. Of the top teams, they will take the biggest leap back. They have a ton of production to replace.

As for Uconn, our backcourt will only improve (and likely be best in the country). We will miss the length of Lou on the perimeter, but Megan, Crystal, and Christyn all have the ability to hit the 3. ONO is the clear X factor, as she provides us height and a defensive presence. 10-12 ppg from her would put UConn in the top 5. The big question mark is if Aubrey or an unknown entity will fill the 5th starting spot and what they will be able to produce. I wish there was a way Collier could have a 5th year of eligibility. But I trust Geno will have them performing well.
If Young goes pro, Muffet will blow her tuffet even more than when Jewell left early. :D
 

Orangutan

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If Young goes pro, Muffet will blow her tuffet even more than when Jewell left early. :D
Naw, Muffet felt blindsided by Jewell. It has been clear all along that Jackie is undecided on her future.

Hope she comes back. Her game has room to grow and she has a lot to teach the underclassmen as well.
 
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Naw, Muffet felt blindsided by Jewell. It has been clear all along that Jackie is undecided on her future.

Hope she comes back. Her game has room to grow and she has a lot to teach the underclassmen as well.
Hhhm. I don't recall the details. Did Jewell say she was coming back only to change her mind? Going #1 in the draft was an opportunity that could not be turned down so I think most were surprised MM reacted in public about that.

I know Geno was disappointed (but kept it under control) when Azure left. Every sign seemed to point to her coming back .
 
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Hhhm. I don't recall the details. Did Jewell say she was coming back only to change her mind?
My recollection is that historically the only players who declared early were players opting out of their 5th year of eligibility. Example being Candace Parker leaving after four years with Tennessee.

Jewel was one of the first players to declare after attending only three years of college. It came as a surprise to me, since it was something we hadn’t really seen in the women’s game. Unless my memory is failing me.
 
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If Cox has a serious injury, (which seems like a torn ACL from a distance), that removes Baylor as a top contender on the same level as Oregon, unless DeCosta emerges as a real threat next year.
With the injury, I don’t see any team capable of challenging Oregon except Stanford and maybe South Carolina. If young returns include Notre Dame in that group.
 
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If Cox has a serious injury, (which seems like a torn ACL from a distance), that removes Baylor as a top contender on the same level as Oregon, unless DeCosta emerges as a real threat next year.
With the injury, I don’t see any team capable of challenging Oregon except Stanford and maybe South Carolina. If young returns include Notre Dame in that group.
Oregon State defeated both South Carolina and Oregon this season and they return a lot of key pieces, and also add some too. Destiny Slocum and Mikayla Pivec are an awesome 1-2 punch in the backcourt and Kat Tudor is a terrific shooter, and Aleah Goodman provides sensational depth. I don’t think Katie McWilliams will be missed a whole lot once Kat returns. Taya Corosdale returns at the 4 and they have a whole lot of candidates at the 5 - including 6’9” Andrea Aquino. Depending on how the front court pans out, they will be very good.

I think I may put them ahead of Notre Dame, a team they competed closely with early in the season, but Notre Dame loses so much to graduation - Oregon State doesn’t.
 
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Updated post Ionescu

  1. Oregon
  2. Baylor
  3. Maryland
  4. Stanford
  5. So carolina
  6. Oregon st
Solid ranking. I can’t even quibble.
How far down would you put UConn?
 

triaddukefan

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late night (early morning) after eating banana pudding ranking

1) Oregon
2) Baylor
3) UConn
4) Maryland
5) Lower Carolina
6) Stanford
7) Oregon State
 
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Oregon State defeated both South Carolina and Oregon this season and they return a lot of key pieces, and also add some too. Destiny Slocum and Mikayla Pivec are an awesome 1-2 punch in the backcourt and Kat Tudor is a terrific shooter, and Aleah Goodman provides sensational depth. I don’t think Katie McWilliams will be missed a whole lot once Kat returns. Taya Corosdale returns at the 4 and they have a whole lot of candidates at the 5 - including 6’9” Andrea Aquino. Depending on how the front court pans out, they will be very good.

I think I may put them ahead of Notre Dame, a team they competed closely with early in the season, but Notre Dame loses so much to graduation - Oregon State doesn’t.
Oregon State is really tricky to predict for next year because so much depends on how good some of its young bigs turn out to be. They do return 4 excellent, experienced guards as you mentioned. Their 5th guard/wing (Simmons) somewhat under performed as a freshman IMO but has potential. They also return 3 front court players with experience, but 1 is undersized (the 6'1" Washington...and 6'1" is being generous), 1 is a hustler but offensively challenged and foul prone (6'2" Thropay), and the third is a good rebounder and fair to good defender but is offensively inconsistent (6'3" Corosdale). So, ultimately how far the Beavers go will depend a lot on how their 2 other inexperienced returning bigs ( sophomore 6'7" Morris, redshirt freshman 6'9" Aquino) develop over winter and/or how fast their new freshman (6'9" Mitrovic, 6'6" Brown, 6'3" Jones) learn from the get go. If at least 2 of these 5 can make significant contributions both offensively and defensively next season, the Beavers could battle with Oregon and Stanford.
 
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My recollection is that historically the only players who declared early were players opting out of their 5th year of eligibility. Example being Candace Parker leaving after four years with Tennessee.

Jewel was one of the first players to declare after attending only three years of college. It came as a surprise to me, since it was something we hadn’t really seen in the women’s game. Unless my memory is failing me.
Zahui B and Epiphanny Prince
 

jonson

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late night (early morning) after eating banana pudding ranking

1) Oregon
2) Baylor
3) UConn
4) Maryland
5) Lower Carolina
6) Stanford
7) Oregon State
About Oregon:

I think one of the positives for Oregon fans is that the returning players still have a ways to go to reach their potential. I believe that this is true even of Ionescu, who is sure to spend her summer addressing/obsessing over the "challenges" of the Kobe Bryant scouting report on ESPN+. It's easy to forget how raw Hebard was when she arrived in Eugene, and, although she's obviously come a very long way, her offensive game certainly could be more diverse. S. Sabally has likewise improved considerably since her freshman year---she was voted all Pac 12 after all--but, as both she and Graves have said, there's still a lot to be added/improved: focus, aggressiveness (minus the charges), avoiding silly fouls, and getting better at involving her teammates (assists). And Boley needs to do more than camp out on the 3 point line, not to mention (imo) improve her conditioning, rebounding, and defense. Graves has proved to be very good at developing (most) players in the program, and I believe that will continue.

The other major positive is depth, which Oregon clearly didn't have all season and which really hurt the team after Hebard injured her knee during the second game against Oregon State and Chavez was sidelined for the remainder of the season a few games after that, reducing the roster to 8 players, one of them with back issues.

Although Cazorla will indeed be a substantial loss, Graves is very high on Chavez, and Jaz Shelley is supposed to be the real deal, having won all sorts of awards in Australia this past year: defensive POY, MVP, "golden hands" (assists + steals - turnovers). But perhaps the biggest addition will be inside. According to Graves, and from what I've seen in FIBA videos, the younger Sabally, who was the MVP of the last two European tournaments in which she played, is a cross between her sister and Hebard: a bigger and stronger inside presence than the former, but a better ball handler and much better shooter from distance (including the 3 point line) than the latter. I suspect she won't start--at least initially--but she will get a lot of minutes, and it's possible that, at times, Oregon could field a frontline of Hebard + the two Sabally's, all of them 6'4" and with very diverse skill sets. And when one adds an incoming 6'5"/6'6" Australian post who outplayed both Aquira DeCosta and Olivia Nelson-Odda in Australia's victory over the US in (I think) the U17 FIBA Tournament, Oregon should finally will have some depth up front. Whether all of this will add up to a stronger team next season remains to be seen of course, but I suspect it will.
 
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I agree. I think FSU will be really good next season. I wouldn't be surprised to see them make an appearance in the top 10 next season.
And they get River Baldwin and Samie Puisis. Hard to go wrong with a massive 6'5" presence in the middle, and everyone back from a Top 25 team. Having said that, however, they lost 6 of their last 10 games this season. And in the first round of the Tourney, they only beat Bucknell by 3 points.

Doesn't seem to be a problem of talent, per se...
 
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Top to bottom talent wise this may be true but I don't see Maryland as the #2 team.

1. Baylor
2. Oregon
3. UConn
4. Stanford
5. South Carolina
6. Maryland
7. Oregon State
8. Notre Dame
9. Louisville
10. NC State
11. MSST
12. Florida State

Let me try this:

1) Oregon
2) Baylor
3) Stanford
4) Maryland
5) South Carolina
6) CONNECTICUT
7) Florida State
8) Notre Dame
9) ?
 
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About Oregon:

I think one of the positives for Oregon fans is that the returning players still have a ways to go to reach their potential. I believe that this is true even of Ionescu, who is sure to spend her summer addressing/obsessing over the "challenges" of the Kobe Bryant scouting report on ESPN+. It's easy to forget how raw Hebard was when she arrived in Eugene, and, although she's obviously come a very long way, her offensive game certainly could be more diverse. S. Sabally has likewise improved considerably since her freshman year---she was voted all Pac 12 after all--but, as both she and Graves have said, there's still a lot to be added/improved: focus, aggressiveness (minus the charges), avoiding silly fouls, and getting better at involving her teammates (assists). And Boley needs to do more than camp out on the 3 point line, not to mention (imo) improve her conditioning, rebounding, and defense. Graves has proved to be very good at developing (most) players in the program, and I believe that will continue.

The other major positive is depth, which Oregon clearly didn't have all season and which really hurt the team after Hebard injured her knee during the second game against Oregon State and Chavez was sidelined for the remainder of the season a few games after that, reducing the roster to 8 players, one of them with back issues.

Although Cazorla will indeed be a substantial loss, Graves is very high on Chavez, and Jaz Shelley is supposed to be the real deal, having won all sorts of awards in Australia this past year: defensive POY, MVP, "golden hands" (assists + steals - turnovers). But perhaps the biggest addition will be inside. According to Graves, and from what I've seen in FIBA videos, the younger Sabally, who was the MVP of the last two European tournaments in which she played, is a cross between her sister and Hebard: a bigger and stronger inside presence than the former, but a better ball handler and much better shooter from distance (including the 3 point line) than the latter. I suspect she won't start--at least initially--but she will get a lot of minutes, and it's possible that, at times, Oregon could field a frontline of Hebard + the two Sabally's, all of them 6'4" and with very diverse skill sets. And when one adds an incoming 6'5"/6'6" Australian post who outplayed both Aquira DeCosta and Olivia Nelson-Odda in Australia's victory over the US in (I think) the U17 FIBA Tournament, Oregon should finally will have some depth up front. Whether all of this will add up to a stronger team next season remains to be seen of course, but I suspect it will.
Cochrane had 3 points and 9 rebounds. Nelson-Ododa had 17 points and 10 rebounds. Outplayed her? DeCosta had 12
points and 8 rebounds.
 

jonson

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Cochrane had 3 points and 9 rebounds. Nelson-Ododa had 17 points and 10 rebounds. Outplayed her? DeCosta had 12
points and 8 rebounds.
Well, that's my take based on the video of the game and her time on the court. She was, I think, only 15 at the time and her role was to rebound and defend, both of which she did very well. (She had 4 blocks.). Only Shelley scored more than 10 points for the Aussies.
 
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Next year will be very different for Miss State. Vic has been losing seniors and replacing them with seniors to-be with a lot of experience. Unless he lands some graduate transfers, he won't have a senior on next year's team. (My money is on him landing someone.)

He will have a lot of pieces, and he is a good coach, so it will be interesting to see what he can put together. If he can get the new players to gel, he could end up Top 10 next year and be a real threat to win it all in 2021.
 

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