Trying to forecast them isn't that different than StJ in my book because they have a brand new backcourt. Fland was a cancer on Arkansas last year and no idea how an Ivy League guard will translate to high D1, nevermind play together. I'd say overrated as well.
I personally think Purdue is as well. As good as their core is, they have little NBA talent. That's going to shine through at some point. They have a really high floor. Let's not forget that Purdue lost 12 games last year. They made the S16 by some luck of the draw. Houston has a higher ceiling.
4 is spot on for us. About where I'd expect any national poll to rank us preseason.
5 OOC top 20 matchups, 6 top 30.
IMO, Purdue's ceiling will likely run concurrent with how good Jacobson actually is, how healthy he can be and how well he fits with Renn. His injury a minute into his second game smothered their potential last year.