Predictions on players' scoring this season | The Boneyard

Predictions on players' scoring this season

MilfordHusky

MilfordHusky

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One of the threads has gotten into predictions about scoring for a few players, so I thought I would give that subject its own thread. Keep in mind that team scoring average equals the sum of individual scoring averages only if every player plays each game. There was some disagreement on that point last year. Last year's averages summed to 96.4, whereas the team average was 89.4 ppg.

Here are my guesses, alongside each player's averages from last season:

Lou 20 (17.4)
Pheesa 18 (16.1)
Crystal 10 (9.5)
Megan 12 (5.8)
Kyla 4 (2.4)
Batouly 4 (1.3)
Mikayla 3 (1.1)
Molly 2 (1.0)
Lexi 3 (0.4)
Christyn 10 (NA)
Olivia 8 (NA)
 
Considering that only about 7 will play more than a couple minutes against good teams, about 75-80 a game is what I see. And without any consistent post offense, the top 3 might struggle to get those numbers. I just don't see any consistent bench scoring there either. I guess they'll need to do some serious stat padding against the AAC to get there. I hope they surprise me.
 
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Lou & Pheesa ALOT...everyone else just be ready to make open shots if they pass you the ball. :cool: This is FAR & AWAY the best duo in the country I hope we run everything through them. Pick & Roll with those two would be hard to handle.

Also, Crystal Dangerfield got off to an amazing start last season before her shin injury. Hope she can have some Moriah Jefferson type leadership/magic this season.
 
bbballfan23 said:
Lou & Pheesa ALOT...everyone else just be ready to make open shots if they pass you the ball. :cool: This is FAR & AWAY the best duo in the country I hope we run everything through them. Pick & Roll with those two would be hard to handle.

Also, Crystal Dangerfield got off to an amazing start last season before her shin injury. Hope she can have some Moriah Jefferson type leadership/magic this season.
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100% agree.
 
bbballfan23 said:
Lou & Pheesa ALOT...everyone else just be ready to make open shots if they pass you the ball. :cool: This is FAR & AWAY the best duo in the country I hope we run everything through them. Pick & Roll with those two would be hard to handle.

Also, Crystal Dangerfield got off to an amazing start last season before her shin injury. Hope she can have some Moriah Jefferson type leadership/magic this season.
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Crystal Dangerfield shot 5-7 from the arc against South Carolina in Albany and hit a huge 3 late against Notre Dame. She shot .449 from the arc for the season, which is excellent.
 
MilfordHusky said:
Crystal Dangerfield shot 5-7 from the arc against South Carolina in Albany and hit a huge 3 late against Notre Dame. She shot .449 from the arc for the season, which is excellent.
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Not saying she still didn’t have good moments but you could tell she wasn’t 100% the way she was at the start. She was excellent for sure during those moments.
 
MilfordHusky knows that this is one of my pre-season favorite exercises and threads. I always like to approach the potential scoring from a lost minutes perspective. Last year we lost 80.8 minutes from Kia Nurse (33.1); Gabby Williams (26.8) and Azura Stevens (20.9). It always comes down to who is going to get the minutes? What are we going to get out of our bench? And, what do the new guys bring to the table in their rookie year? You basically have 200 minutes per game...but, some players get minutes in every game, some players don't. Players like Espinosa-Hunter play limited games as she only played 7 games before transferring.

So, let's see how we distribute the minutes for this year.... Last year's minutes first then this year's prediction:

Lou - 29.4 (30)
Phessa - 28.8 (30)
Dangerfield - 28.7 (31)
Megan Walker - 15.5 (28)
Kyra Irwin - 9.4 (16)
Batouly Camara - 4.8 (14)
Mikayla Combs - 6.7 (14)
Molly Bent - 7.5 (8)
Lexi Gordon - 3.9 (8)
Christyn Williams - (16)
Olivia Nelson-Ododa -(17)

Points - last years first and this year's prediction in parenthesis

Lou - 17.4 (20.4)
Pheesa - 16.1 (17.6)
Dangerfield - 9.5 (11)
Walker - 5.8 (12)
Kyra - 2.4 (05)
Batouly - 1.3 (04)
Mikayla - 1.1 (04)
Molly - 1.0 (02)
Lexi - 0.4 (03)
Chrystyn - 0.0 (05)
Olivia - 0.0 (06)

I put the team at about 91 points per game...
 
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cferraro04 said:
MilfordHusky knows that this is one of my pre-season favorite exercises and threads. I always like to approach the potential scoring from a lost minutes perspective. Last year we lost 80.8 minutes from Kia Nurse (33.1); Gabby Williams (26.8) and Azura Stevens (20.9). It always comes down to who is going to get the minutes? What are we going to get out of our bench? And, what do the new guys bring to the table in their rookie year? You basically have 200 minutes per game...but, some players get minutes in every game, some players don't. Players like Espinosa-Hunter play limited games as she only played 7 games before transferring.

So, let's see how we distribute the minutes for this year.... Last year's minutes first then this year's prediction:

Lou - 29.4 (30)
Phessa - 28.8 (30)
Dangerfield - 28.7 (31)
Megan Walker - 15.5 (28)
Kyra Irwin - 9.4 (16)
Batouly Camara - 4.8 (14)
Mikayla Combs - 6.7 (14)
Molly Bent - 7.5 (8)
Lexi Gordon - 3.9 (8)
Christyn Williams - (16)
Olivia Nelson-Ododa -(17)

Points - last years first and this year's prediction in parenthesis

Lou - 17.4 (20.4)
Pheesa - 16.1 (17.6)
Dangerfield - 9.5 (11)
Walker - 5.8 (12)
Kyra - 2.4 (05)
Batouly - 1.3 (04)
Mikayla - 1.1 (04)
Molly - 1.0 (02)
Lexi - 0.4 (03)
Chrystyn - 0.0 (05)
Olivia - 0.0 (06)

I put the team at about 91 points per game...
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I think we need a recount or hit recalculate on your spread sheet.
EVERY bench player is not going to more than double or triple the averages from last year.
Also I can't tell who you are projecting to be the 5th starter because Kyla, and Christyn have identical numbers and ONO is only 1 point higher, Mikayla and Batouly 1 point lower.
 
CocoHusky said:
I think we need a recount or hit recalculate on your spread sheet.
EVERY bench player is not going to more than double or triple the averages from last year.
Also I can't tell who you are projecting to be the 5th starter because Kyla, and Christyn have identical numbers and ONO is only 1 point higher, Mikayla and Batouly 1 point lower.
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If Kyla Irwin and Christyn Williams average the same points per game then the team will not achieve its goals. Last season's team scored 89.4 ppg. I do not see this team exceeding that number.
 
I'm not very interested in predicting how many points each player will score for the season. What does interest me is thinking about where on the court the points will come from. Geno has said that he likes 1/3 of the team's shots to be 3-pointers. Last season 31% of the team's FGAs were 3s. Does this season's team attempt more 3-pointers? Kia and Azura combined for 94 made three-pointers last season (sadly Azura accounted for only 9 of the 94). I think a combination of Lou, Pheesa, Megan, Crystal and Christyn can make up the 94 and then some.

Last year's national champion on the men's side, Villanova, took 47.5% of its shots from beyond the arc.
 
UConnCat said:
I'm not very interested in predicting how many points each player will score for the season. What does interest me is thinking about where on the court the points will come from. Geno has said that he likes 1/3 of the team's shots to be 3-pointers. Last season 31% of the team's FGAs were 3s. Does this season's team attempt more 3-pointers? Kia and Azura combined for 94 made three-pointers last season (sadly Azura accounted for only 9 of the 94). I think a combination of Lou, Pheesa, Megan, Crystal and Christyn can make up the 94 and then some.

Last year's national champion on the men's side, Villanova, took 47.5% of its shots from beyond the arc.
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Geno mentioned defense recently and also that the passing wasn't as good as in the past. I think, though, that our lineup will give us a nice perimeter offense. I expect to see increases in 3-pointers made by everyone, with Lou possibly challenging the NCAA season record. Crystal should have a modest increase, and Megan and Pheesa should have big increases. Both Christyn and Olivia can hit the 3-ball. We will miss Kia's shooting, but hopefully can make up for it.
 
UCONN has been built on consistency and hitting tough tough shots. With a big focus on the big three and teams giving players with more length on Lou someone is gonna need to step up. Can Megan and Christyn hit tough shots, not just regular shots but tough ones with hands all in their face that we’ve seen Kia and Gabby nail for Years , that’s the big question
 
UConnCat said:
I'm not very interested in predicting how many points each player will score for the season. What does interest me is thinking about where on the court the points will come from. Geno has said that he likes 1/3 of the team's shots to be 3-pointers. Last season 31% of the team's FGAs were 3s. Does this season's team attempt more 3-pointers? Kia and Azura combined for 94 made three-pointers last season (sadly Azura accounted for only 9 of the 94). I think a combination of Lou, Pheesa, Megan, Crystal and Christyn can make up the 94 and then some.

Last year's national champion on the men's side, Villanova, took 47.5% of its shots from beyond the arc.
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I think they'll have to shoot more 3's. Other than Collier, they're not going to get much inside. And they'll need to hit a very good percentage because without much inside offense they're going to go to the foul line less this year.
 
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I’m going out on a limb and predicting that CW averages double figure points. Liv probably doesn’t average 6 though.
 
This years team reminds me of 2010/2011 where we relied on two freshman, had two proven scorers returning, and some unknown pieces. That team made it to a final four; and I believe that this team starts the season with more pieces of the puzzle known than that particular season.

Two dynamic proven scorers:
Lou-19.0 ppg
Collier-18.0 ppg

One proven PG- a strong PG can take you far:
Dangerfield-13ppg

Unknown with major potential:
Walker- 12ppg

Two Freshman:
Williams- 10 ppg
ONO-7 ppg

Unproven but could surprise:
Irwin-2.0ppg
Bent-1.0 ppg
Camara-3.0 ppg
Gordon- 2.0 ppg
Coombs-2.0 ppg

Roughly 88 ppg. I have a hard time expecting more from players like bent, Coombs, and Gordon on the offensive end. I can’t remember the last time a player scored less than 30 points in a season and went on to be a consistent offensive piece. If anyone can remember an example, please share.
 
As bad as the AAC is, I just don't see this team averaging anything more than 78ppg. They lost too much and have too many question marks.
 
BobbyJ said:
I think they'll have to shoot more 3's. Other than Collier, they're not going to get much inside. And they'll need to hit a very good percentage because without much inside offense they're going to go to the foul line less this year.
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Both Walker and Williams like to slash. I think they can help UCONN keep its FTs numbers up there.
 
MilfordHusky said:
Geno mentioned defense recently and also that the passing wasn't as good as in the past. I think, though, that our lineup will give us a nice perimeter offense. I expect to see increases in 3-pointers made by everyone, with Lou possibly challenging the NCAA season record. Crystal should have a modest increase, and Megan and Pheesa should have big increases. Both Christyn and Olivia can hit the 3-ball. We will miss Kia's shooting, but hopefully can make up for it.
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you have to believe that KLS is going to be double teamed everywhere she goes.............CD, CW and MW need to loosen up the defense with their own consistent shooting to get KLS better looks........
 
TitleTown said:
As bad as the AAC is, I just don't see this team averaging anything more than 78ppg. They lost too much and have too many question marks.
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I’m willing to bet my bank account (which isn’t much) on this team averaging over 78ppg. Too many weapons. Undersized= Perfect to run and gun
 
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This team is NOT going to be scoring challenged by any stretch of the imagination. People have hit on lots of good points, but as far as scoring in the post, name more than 4-5 teams we play with beasts in the post who will give us problems. Point is, Pheesa, Lou, Meg and Christyn will all get their points in the post from driving, slashing, pick and rolls, or slip screens.

This team will score in bunches. Will Megan be as good as Gabby and Christyn as good as Kia? Of course not, but Lou, Pheesa, and Crystal are all better (and more importantly, healthy), and that will give the younger pair freedom and confidence.

And our outside shooting will be insane this year with all 5 starters capable of hitting the 3 consistently. I suspect this team will be a very pleasant surprise for some of the "naysayers" on here... ;)
 
Charliebball said:
you have to believe that KLS is going to be double teamed everywhere she goes...CD, CW and MW need to loosen up the defense with their own consistent shooting to get KLS better looks...
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And I think that will happen.
 
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