POY?

[bballnut90]

Thought I'd get this going since I haven't seen a ton of discussion so far....I only listed players that I think have a realistic shot of winning the award, so if your choice isn't listed, please choose out of these options. Feel free to post a response as to who you'd pick and why. I'm guessing KLS will win this vote since she's the "home" representative on this board, but please try to be objective when picking. Here are the candidates:

Katie Lou Samuelson, Connecticut
17.3 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 3.4 apg, 2.7 A/TO ratio, 52% FG, 46% 3pt

Why she's a top candidate: She's been the best player for the #1 team who is also undefeated. She's had great games in every big matchup and is unquestionably one of the best scorers in the country.

What's working against her: She's missed 5 games due to injury and has played limited minutes in several others. Her numbers are not as strong as several other candidates.


A'ja Wilson, South Carolina
22.7 ppg, 11.5 rpg, 3.6 bpg, 55.5% FG

Why she's a top candidate: She has the whole package-great stats, name recognition, good performances against top teams (sans the UCONN game), the eye test says she's the top player

What's working against her: Her team just isn't very good this year. They're a 5 loss team and it's rare that we see a player take home POY who isn't on a top 5 team. The only exceptions in the last 20 years was Plum winning, and Kelsey had a far stronger season than A'ja is having this year.


Victoria Vivians, Mississippi State
19.3 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 50.3% FG, 40.2% 3pt, 82.4% FT

Why she's a top candidate: Eye test says she might be the best scorer in women's basketball this year. She can score in a variety of ways and is capable of taking over and carrying her team. She has massive performances in the biggest of games, she's very efficient and she's led her team to an undefeated season so far.

What's working against her: One could make an argument that she isn't the best player on her team. McCowan's numbers are more eye popping and she's by far the most improved player on the team, so this can hurt Vivians chances. She also doesn't have the name recognition that A'ja Wilson or others on this list do.


Kalani Brown, Baylor
20.2 ppg, 9.7 rpg, 67.1 FG%

Why she's a top candidate: Very similar to McCowan, her numbers are phenomenal. Extremely efficient player and eye test says she's the top offensive center in the country. Baylor has been outstanding this season and Brown is the centerpiece of that.

What's working against her: She's really only played a handful of good teams and I think an argument can be made that Cox or Wallace have been the best player on Baylor this season. Defensively she doesn't stand out and her shot blocking numbers are quite poor for someone her size.


Sabrina Ionescu, Oregon
19.5 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 7.5 apg, 2.4 A/TO ratio, 46.3% FG, 46% 3pt

Why she's a top candidate: Her numbers are ridiculous. We've never seen a player in women's basketball fill up a stat sheet like Ionescu does night in and night out. She's turned into a dead eye shooter and might be the best playmaker in the country. Outstanding passer and scorer.

What's working against her: Her team has struggled a bit as of late and she doesn't have the name recognition that others on this list do. People aren't sure what to make of Oregon either....their best wins are against an overrated UCLA team and 2 wins against streaky Texas A&M. Doesn't stand out defensively.


Kelsey Mitchell, Ohio State
24.6 ppg, 4.2 apg, 1.8 A/TO, 46% FG, 40% 3pt, 86% FT

Why she's a top candidate: Name recognition and statistics. She's a fantastic scorer and despite her reputation as being a chucker, she's pretty efficient and does a good job of getting her teammates involved.

What's working against her: Ohio State is a pretty bad team. They aren't getting a seed if the tournament started today, yet they have the talent to be a top 5 team. She also hasn't been as dominant as she has in prior seasons and doesn't do a ton defensively.

Asia Durr, Louisville
19.8 ppg, 47.6% FG, 46.4% 3pt,

Why she's a top candidate: She has dominated in big games. Her performances against Ohio State, Oregon and Notre Dame were nothing short of spectacular. She's been the centerpiece on an overachieving team that is position to get a #1 seed, and has emerged as possibly the most dangerous player in the country.

What's working against her: She doesn't really impact the game outside of her ability to score. Her stats are quite weak and she doesn't have the all around game or 2 end impact that most POYs do.


I didn't realize there'd only be 7 poll options, so I didn't include an 'other' category. My last option was McCowan who I decided to eliminate due to the lack of options, but here is her writeup:

Teaira McCowan, Mississippi State
19.0 ppg, 13.2 rpg, 1.9 bpg, 61.8% FG

Why she's a top candidate: Her numbers are simply astounding and match up well with anyone. She's turned in massive rebounding games against quality bigs and put up 35/19 against a good Oregon team. Her team is also undefeated.

What's working against her: Eye test doesn't spell POY. Her offensive game is raw despite the phenomenal numbers, and the go to player on her team is clearly Vivians. Defensively she could be much more impactful with her 6-7 height and big frame. She struggled offensively against Wilson and Russell and doesn't have name recognition either.



Out of these players, my pick would be Wilson at 1 and Vivians at 1a. Either can dominate a game in different ways and both have stepped up to the plate in a big way their final season. I think Wilson is the best player, but I'd argue Vivians is having a better season. Wilson will likely take home the hardware, but if I'm voting, it's a toss up between these two for me.

 

[CBear01]

I, along with probably a good majority here, really want to pick KLS for POY. It would be just natural for me (us) to do that. And there will be cases for her why it would be a legitimate win.

But I voted for VV of Miss St. Why? I've stated in another thread where we were narrowing down our top players that I just HAD to include her (as much as I didn't want to) simply because her numbers speak for themselves. But more for the fact that she makes other players on her team better and is really the top choice for a top team. They are just as much undefeated as UCONN is right now and that should speak volumes as well. At this point she appears to be playing just slightly higher than KLS and Wilson at this present moment. IMO, of course

 

[eebmg]

Appreciate that Katie Lou is at the top of the poll so I did not have to scroll down.

 

[Bronx23]

This is an excellent thread and great write ups and summaries on each player, with their strengths and weaknesses as candidates pointed out. Every player you mentioned is a good, strong candidate.
Yes, I am a big U Conn fan and double yes, I huge fan of KLS. If you look at her carefully she is probably the most well rounded, (if it was baseball they'd say 5 skills player).
She's clearly one of the very best shooters in the country, a phenomenal passer and many times she gives up her shot for a teammates better shot. Her defense and rebounding have both improved, although she still has work to do in both areas.
In summary she is the best player on the best team and without her they are probably drop down to 5-6 team. On a U Conn team you are hardly ever going to see super impressive stats because of the unselfish style they play and how often the best players are sitting by the beginning of the fourth quarter.
Until recently I bought the hype about Wilson but five losses already and hasn't really stood out in the big games and moments.
I think Durr, Vivians and Mitchell are all great scorers but don't think they make their teams or teammates better.
I'm not sure how you can be a truly top big and not influence the game defensively so in my mind that eliminates Brown.
I am not that impressed with McCowan as I think she's just a very tall, strong developing woman and player and just her size makes her score and defend and block shots. Her mobility and skill set still need a lot of work.
I love Ionescu and her skills and abilities. She sees the floor as well or better than almost any point guard to ever play WCB and she's only a sophomore. Yes, her defense is nondescript. She's surrounded by a lot of really good young players and if they develop as it seems they might, watch out over the next two years. They are at best with all that at best a low #2 seed or high #3.
That brings me back to KLS as POY, Vivians #2 and Ionescu #3.
Sorry if I might sound a bit like a homer but KLS I believe would be on or very close to the top ten of all time Huskies and only getting better. I see her finishing her whole career at #4 or #5 (just above or below Sue Bird, probably the best women's point guard ever. I saw Sue at her HS play as well as in a big AAU tournament, when my daughter was just beginning to play AAU ball.
Bronx23

 

[cbraarj]

POY was decided a long time ago. So I didnt vote for anyone. Aja is going to win and it wont matter how many losses SC has. Washington lost 6 games last year and Kelsey Plum still won.

 

[happymonsters]

I'm a UConn homer, so I would give it to Lou, but I think Wilson will probably win. She was the preseason favorite and has been having a good season. While there have been a lot of players playing really well this year, no one has truly stood out like Plum did last year. Vivians has been surprisingly efficient this year, and Mississippi State is undefeated, but she might split some votes with McCowan. She also doesn't have the narrative and preseason hype like Wilson does.

 

[MainefanSC]

I voted for KLS. She embodies all of the team first traits and excels in many areas while working on other, not so developed, skills.

Wilson, however, will probably walk away with the hardware.

 

[BostonCanuck]

I think it's too close to call right now between A'ja and Lou. A'ja looks great from the stats sheet. But Lou always comes up huge in games when her teammates really need her, whereas A'ja sometimes does not.

And then if Mississippi State beats South Carolina again to win the SEC tournament, Victoria by all rights should probably leapfrog A'ja as a top contender. I think South Carolina is just one bad loss away from that happening as it is. The over-hyping by some of A'ja as a forgone conclusion has really annoyed me.

 

[ConnFanInMich]

I agree that Wilson will probably win the national awards based on hype and preconceived expectations.

I do wonder if Miss State goes undefeated in conference play and South Carolina has a few more losses, we might see a situation like 2008 where Parker won the national awards but Fowles was SEC PoY.

 

[JustinesGuy]

KLS That is an easy question

 

[jaundicedeye]

I'm a UConn homer, so I would give it to Lou, but I think Wilson will probably win. She was the preseason favorite and has been having a good season. While there have been a lot of players playing really well this year, no one has truly stood out like Plum did last year. Vivians has been surprisingly efficient this year, and Mississippi State is undefeated, but she might split some votes with McCowan. She also doesn't have the narrative and preseason hype like Wilson does.

Agree. I like KLS and even VV but the Aja Wilson train has accumulated too much momentum to stop.
The initial post concerning player pro and con considerations should note that Sabrina Ionescu is only a sophomore. If she was an upperclassman she would be more prominent in the POY discussion.

 

[eebmg]

I think Aja will most likely win because she has been anointed but I also think she is feeling the pressure of carrying the team with limited help. It really showed against UConn and Miss St where McGowan feasted in the 4th quarter.

 

[Bigboote]

There's certainly no clear-cut best player in the country this year. A'ja was anointed early-on (one of the things I HATE about pre-season awards/votes), so it's clearly hers to lose in the minds of the voters.

I voted for Vivians. She's had a good offensive year, but she's a great defender who's usually guarding a much bigger person. She expends so much energy on defense but her offensive motor never seems to lag. I have a soft spot for blue-collar players.

 

[jaundicedeye]

I think it's too close to call right now between A'ja and Lou. A'ja looks great from the stats sheet. But Lou always comes up huge in games when her teammates really need her, whereas A'ja sometimes does not.

And then if Mississippi State beats South Carolina again to win the SEC tournament, Victoria by all rights should probably leapfrog A'ja as a top contender. I think South Carolina is just one bad loss away from that happening as it is. The over-hyping by some of A'ja as a forgone conclusion has really annoyed me.

Agree. The over-hyping of Aja is annoying. It continues even as you watch her play and see the limitations of her offensive game. She is a five-feet-from-the-rim player with no outside shot, passing or ball skills. She is, however, an impressive athlete and physical presence. This sets her apart.

 

[Rb335]

It’s definitely too early to call. Right now the conversation should include KLS, A’ja, and VV. Ionescu should be considered for first team AA.

I think A’ja leads based on Hype and attention, but a big game by KLS vs Louisville could propel her to the top. She would have played well in all big games for the season. Conversely, if Asia Durr goes off against Uconn and the cards snag a win (I don’t predict this), she could become part of the conversation. However I don’t think her game beyond ppg will be enough.

A lot should depend on how the teams finish the season. If state and Uconn run the table, I would think it should be between the best player on both teams.

 

[Undercovervol]

I too think that A'ja Wilson will win, unless KLS has a monster end to the season. I voted for KLS, however. A'ja is a physical presence and dominant force for most games in college, but KLS clearly has more upside than Wilson. Wilson doesn't have the size to be a dominant post in the pros, nor the speed and skills to be a dominant guard. She will have to model her game after Alyssa Thomas and play the four (imo) to be a franchise player, but Alyssa Thomas is way better than Wilson is now, imo, just considering passing skills. Of course, Wilson can improve in many areas with time, but I believe past player of the year winners left college better all around than Wilson is now. However, we do have to remember that Wilson is not on a great team, and that can really bias a perception of her. I would struggle too if I were in her position!
KLS has more upside and is (perhaps) truly the better player because of her size at the wing position. It's amazing to see in the college game, and she will have an immediate impact at the pro level, imo. Coming off a screen, she's nearly unguardable, and her shooting form and percentage makes her the best shooter in WCBB since Maya Moore. I think her defense and rebounding are fine, and she's a more physical player than people give her credit. I was incredibly impressed with the way she played against Texas. She basically willed UCONN to a victory, which is saying a lot. Regardless of whether she wins this year, I think she'll certainly win next year.

 

[DefenseBB]

Thought I'd get this going since I haven't seen a ton of discussion so far....I only listed players that I think have a realistic shot of winning the award, so if your choice isn't listed, please choose out of these options. Feel free to post a response as to who you'd pick and why. I'm guessing KLS will win this vote since she's the "home" representative on this board, but please try to be objective when picking. Here are the candidates:

Great analysis. I have added some more stats below. Unfortunately the votes come down to perceptions many times.

• Brown will be eliminated due to poor OOC and her propensity to foul too much.
• Ionescu is just a sophomore and to win this as sophomore, you have to be truly outstanding and Sabrina has only been good to great. She also disappeared in the 2nd half against Stanford on their National TV exposure.
• McCowan-by far the most improved player, just not enough to warrant POY or even 1st Team AP.

I left 5 and here are their side by side stats:

• Mitchell seems to be forgotten as OSU has struggled mightily after the lofty (too lofty) predictions as a potential FF contender in Columbus this year. She is not a "chucker" as many of postulated, she actually has improved her all around game but she is not Kelsey Plum so she will not be winning this. She may even be falling to the 2nd AP Team as Durr, Vivians, Ionescu and KLS all grab the headlines.

That leaves the 3 players with the pedigree and team success:

• Wilson-was the clear pre-season favorite. Her team's struggles and her disappearing in National TV games (Mizzou, MSU, not just UConn) have brought the others into play. Her pedigree is still very high and it may already be preordained. I hope not.
• Durr-she was #2 in the 2015 Class behind KLS and she has emerged with authority. By looking at her numbers above, she is behind KLS.
• Vivians-has taken the next leap from All-Conference to All-American. The issue is now pedigree. Does her body of work her 1st 3 years resonate with the voters to have them think "dominant" and "best player"? Her benching last year at the end of the regular season is still on people's minds (at least mine) and while she has been fantastic and better than Mitchell, I think she's on the outside of the POY- just outside.
• KLS-To me, she is clearly the lead dog (pun intended) on this phenomenal team with 3 other stars worthy of AA. Her numbers are very strong across the board and she continues to come up big in big games. Will her missing 7 games hurt her? How she does on Monday against Durr and Louisville will determine her fate.

I had dismissed both Vivians and Mitchell but looking at their stats, shows how impressive they have been. Mitchell, for all my snark the past 3 years, has absolutely earned my respect this year. She's made herself better and has tried to help her team. That said, OSU is just dreadful on defense.

I still think it's Wilson, KLS and then Vivians/Durr. Monday could really help KLS's position for POY.

 

[oldude]

I voted for Lou out of loyalty, but the truth is that over the next few weeks, whether it's in big conference games, or major OOC games like Monday night, big performances by one or more of the top candidates will be critical in NPOY voting. If Lou has a big game on Monday, and KIa plays lock down defense on Durr, that will definitely have an impact.

 

[HoopsFan21]

Surprised Ionescu isn't getting more love.

 

[eebmg]

Well, if this Wichita game says anything, Katie Lou should run away with it. She is in another zone.

 

[Aluminny69]

Can anyone think of an example where the pre-season POY didn't ultimately win POY? It's almost like it is preordained.


To answer my own question, sort of, didn't Alaina Beard win POY over Diana Taurasi?

 

[nwhoopfan]

She also disappeared in the 2nd half against Stanford on their National TV exposure.

I didn't see it that way. She was the only Duck that did much scoring in the 2nd half. Her points were almost exactly evenly distributed between 1st and 2nd half. It was Hebard that completely disappeared after halftime.

 

[DefenseBB]

I didn't see it that way. She was the only Duck that did much scoring in the 2nd half. Her points were almost exactly evenly distributed between 1st and 2nd half. It was Hebard that completely disappeared after halftime.

I was thinking her assists, rebounds and how she was/was not moving the ball as much. I will rewatch to see if my memory is continuing to fade...

 

[sharris952]

I was not going to weigh in on this topic because of the obvious bias of this board, but i cannot believe some of the suggestions that Wilson is just a great athlete and not skilled. Aja can score inside and out. She is a very good shooter from the high post amd pinch post short corner area. Sje cam bring the ball up the court and normally no player her size can take it away from her. She is an excellent rebounder and keads the SEC in blocks. Though she did not have a great game agaimst Uconn she posted a double/double whole double and triple teamed during the game depending on whi was on the court for SC. When has the right talent around her she is dominant because teams cannot focus the entire game plan on stopping her, something Geno alluded to in his press conference after the gsme when asked about her. As for McCowan Aja outscored her and was dominating her through 3qtrs but with no help from Jennings and other posts that night she simplly ran out of Gas. Similar to Lebron James the first half of this NBA yr, he is clearly the best player but when his team is a hot mess he is going to take losses. This is an opinion shared by even pro Uconn players. See Sue Birds assessment of Aja Wilson posted on the USA bball page yesterday. NPOY has to demand special treatment amd you will not find one college coach today that plays her one on one. She is always double, triple, or im Mizzou case quadruple teamed.

 

[sharris952]

Sorry for the spelling errors but i am on a phone. Aja has always been effective in big games sans this years Uconn game though 16 and 16 would not be considered bad as outmanned as she was. Remember last years game went to the final four minutes with Gray and Davis having horrible games. Her freshman year she played well before being injured and taking out. I like Katie Lou but she has had periods where her shot has been off and some of those games(last yrs semifinal and gsmes earlier this season) are in line with any of Aja's off nights.