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Pomeroys are out

whaler11

whaler11

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If WSU finishes that high it says a lot about Marshall. They lost a lot of players.
 
I'm well known to be one of the biggest KenPom proponents around, but a sizable part of his preseason projections are the "infrastructure." Track record the last few years, coaching record/experience, etc. With a new coach, we're going to be more variable than most. Not to mention the middling efficiency our returning players feature due to bad offensive schemes and bad defensive efficiency due to some lackluster effort in a few games (again I lay much of the blame on the coach).

We're projected 70 spots higher than we finished last year, but I'd bet on us outperforming that. But still, it shows how much we'd have to outperform it to make the dance (another 60 or so spots).
 
.-.
Since the starting rating is mostly based on last season I'm not surprised. Until a decent amount of games are played the KenPom ratings mean nothing.
 
Who cares about a statistical rating before the season starts where the dude who makes it just takes stuff from last year, regardless of departures, coaching changes, player improvement
 
StepbackCity said:
Who cares about a statistical rating before the season starts where the dude who makes it just takes stuff from last year, regardless of departures, coaching changes, player improvement
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That stuff is all factored in.

Coaching changes just make things more volatile so it's less likely to be accurate. But the ranking IS adjusted for it.

Returning player production adjusted by age growth and recruiting pedigree is factored in. Minutes consistency and departing production is factored in. Coach pedigree and experience is factored in. Highly ranked recruits are factored in.

I will be honest I'm not sure how Gilbert is handled, though. A bit of a special case. We're probably underrated if he's back to true form.

Travelman32 said:
Why is Memphis projected to go 8-9 in conference?
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"Projected record is based on cumulative probabilities of winning each game and may not equal the sum of individual game predictions. "
 
auror said:
That stuff is all factored in.

Coaching changes just make things more volatile so it's less likely to be accurate. But the ranking IS adjusted for it.

Returning player production adjusted by age growth and recruiting pedigree is factored in. Minutes consistency and departing production is factored in. Coach pedigree and experience is factored in. Highly ranked recruits are factored in.

I will be honest I'm not sure how Gilbert is handled, though. A bit of a special case. We're probably underrated if he's back to true form.



"Projected record is based on cumulative probabilities of winning each game and may not equal the sum of individual game predictions. "
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Ya, I didn't understand that.
 
.-.
StepbackCity said:
Who cares about a statistical rating before the season starts where the dude who makes it just takes stuff from last year, regardless of departures, coaching changes, player improvement
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Aside from the fact that Pomeroy does factor in most of those things, I presume the people posting in the thread?

If you don't care, why make a show about not caring? There are plenty of other threads.
 
jleves said:
Because Houston is obviously playing one of their games....
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Good catch! Thought he meant why does it show 8-9 when if you look at the individual games it would be 9-8.

Travelman32 said:
Ya, I didn't understand that.
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If you add up all the win probabilities, it adds up to 8.44 wins, but the site shows 9 wins for the individual games. So the expected value is 8.44 wins, but they're favored in 9 games. Means they likely won't win all the games they're favored in because you're just favored in a few. The odds are that they'd win 8 more often than 9 if they played the schedule multiple times, so the site shows 8-9 instead of 9-8.
 
auror said:
That stuff is all factored in.

Coaching changes just make things more volatile so it's less likely to be accurate. But the ranking IS adjusted for it.
Expand ...

If KO was still here, we'd be well south of #250 imo. And that's not a deliberate dig either, just an honest assessment.

I will be honest I'm not sure how Gilbert is handled, though. A bit of a special case. We're probably underrated if he's back to true form.
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I doubt much at all. It's nigh impossible to factor him in, because even the people with the deepest firsthand knowledge of his health can only guess at his upcoming season. And anyone doing national rankings is going to know far, far less than that.
 
I am expecting us to do much better. But in the meantime, good. This all serves as motivation for the guys on the team.
 
Amusing that the Ivy seems to be emphasizing athletics again to some degree. They have at least 2 ranked FCS teams, Princeton and Dartmouth.
 
.-.
Austin316 said:
If WSU finishes that high it says a lot about Marshall. They lost a lot of players.
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If Teddy Allen gains eligibility for Wichita State this year, that's HUGE for Marshall's young squad.

Likewise, if Lance Thomas gains eligibility for Memphis this year, that will change the dynamics of Penny's team.

Just those 2 additions will make a difference.. and I don't see why they wouldn't be eligible if Heron got his.
 
.-.
I feel sorry for anyone whose life is as devoid of meaning that they play these types of games.

Seriously, that must be a lonely world on the other end of that computer monitor.
 
We are a middle of the conference team in a middle of the pack conference. Average as average can be.

But with Hurley running the show, we instantly become better than average. And Jalen is better than we have seen. Add a healthy Gilbert and now you are becoming a tourney contender. If Sid or Polley really make an impact, we are a bit better than that.

Lots of "ifs". So many that a .500 record is possible, but so is winning a game or two in the Tourney. As much as people hate to hear it, this season is really just to take a step in the right direction. Things were really dysfunctional last season. A solid season of 20 wins would certainly indicate substantial progress. Year 2 under Hurley with Bouknight, an experienced Sid and Carlton and a rust free AG could be very interesting, and thats before adding ANY of the 4 bigs we are recruiting.

The point being thst there is a lot of work to be done, but within 20 months we should all be happy with where the program is at that point.
 
Huskybass said:
We are a middle of the conference team in a middle of the pack conference. Average as average can be.

But with Hurley running the show, we instantly become better than average. And Jalen is better than we have seen. Add a healthy Gilbert and now you are becoming a tourney contender. If Sid or Polley really make an impact, we are a bit better than that.

Lots of "ifs". So many that a .500 record is possible, but so is winning a game or two in the Tourney. As much as people hate to hear it, this season is really just to take a step in the right direction. Things were really dysfunctional last season. A solid season of 20 wins would certainly indicate substantial progress. Year 2 under Hurley with Bouknight, an experienced Sid and Carlton and a rust free AG could be very interesting, and thats before adding ANY of the 4 bigs we are recruiting.

The point being thst there is a lot of work to be done, but within 20 months we should all be happy with where the program is at that point.
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Great post.
 
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