Pomeroy: NCAA abuses statistics to stack the deck against small schools

[billybud]

The problem with having a huge population (125 programs in football and a zillion in basketball) all purporting to be in contention for the same prize, is that it will always be a fiction.

The strength of the teams will be aligned on a bell curve...and only teams placed on the forward quarter of that curve really have a shot.

To be "fair", you might need a process of "norming"...

To create "fairness" between races when competing for jobs by taking a standardized test, test scores are "adjusted" according to race by using separate curves for each race. You are only competing for a score with others that are in your group.

In a way, the NCAA does this to an extent. Automatic qualifiers may not be as good as some bubble team left out.

 

[champs99and04]

You still have to beat someone.....whether football or basketball. It's tough when you try to mix apples and oranges as mixed as the leagues are.

Illinois State beat just ONE top 50 team (Wichita State...the only Top 50 on their schedule and they went 1-2 vs the Shockers) and they had losses to Murray State, San Francisco, and Tulsa. Wichita State was also the only team in the Top 100 RPI that the Redbirds played.

Cuse went 6-8 vs Top 50 and was also left out...poor RPI sealed their fate.

If RPI were the only metric used, the Redbirds would be in....but you have to look at just who you played and beat...and who beat you.

The thing is that those games are already, you know, factored into the RPI (and quite heavily, I may add). We just want to assign an inordinate importance to them because they were on TV.

 

[billybud]

Hmmm, leaving out UConn and Nova excludes 5 of the last 20 basketball championships. When you add in UNLV that means 6 of the last 20 championships were won by non-P5 schools...30% is not an insignificant number ....

But hey, lets stick with the narrative that only P5 basketball programs can win the big games....basketball is not the same as football.

I think it does say something that only the Big East ( a power basketball conference) and the current P5 have won a basketball championship.....in the last 26 years.

I don't count the Big East, in basketball, as a non power conference... I do think the record shows how difficult it is for a program from a non power conference to win the basketball NC>

 

[dwalks93]

The way a conference is "counted" is the way a conference is paid.

The new Big East is probably an overall better basketball conference than the SEC. But one cannot call the new Big East a "power basketball conference" when they make $4 million and the SEC makes over $50 million. If the BE is a "power conference" then they'd be paid like the P5.

The AAC in football is a very strong conference. It may not be as overall strong as the P5 but it will routinely have its top teams play competitive football against good P5 programs. The problem with the AAC is not the level of football competition....it is the level of pay. If the AAC was paid by its level of competition then the AAC would be making around $20 million while ACC teams make $30 million. Clearly that is not happening...

The P5 is all about money. It was never about competition. You cannot carve out a "power" exception for the new Big East if the money isn't there to back that exception.

 

[Slasher]

I don't know....

Not insist on a home and home....maybe...play Top 100 in neutral site games?

UNC played Tulane, Chattanooga, Chaminade, Long Beach State, Monouth, Davidson, Radford

FSU played Iona, Charleston Southern, Winthrop, Temple, George Washington, Nicholls State, Samford, Manhatten

Ohio State played Providence, NC Central, Western Carolina, Jackson State, Marshall, FAU, Youngstown State

Kansas played Sienna, UAB, Long Beach State, UNC Asheville, UMKC, UNLV, Davidson


Many years ago...FSU couldn't get the big boys to come to Tallahassee to play football...so Bobby Bowden became "King of the Road"....

I remember October of 1981...played Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, and LSU on the road in Octobet 1981


Long Beach State are the Road Warriors of Basketball this year.....This year, Long Beach State basketball played Wichita State in Kansas, UNC in North Carolina, Louisville in Louisville, Florida Gulf Coast in Fort Myers, Kansas in Kansas, Texas in Austin, Eastern Michigan in Ypsilanti

Texas Southern was the real road warriors...check out their schedule.

 

[willie99]

in order for teams like IL St to "play somebody", they have to accept bad deals

I'm sure they'd love to play some home and home games, maybe a few neutral site games, but none of the "somebodies" are going to give them that chance

 

[billybud]

Nope...they probably won't get home and homes...not even from next door Illinois or next state over Indiana.

Nor from the Big East....or ACC.

 

[billybud]

But if you want to play away, to augment your schedule...there seems to be plenty of opportunity to do so.

 

[chickenhead]

The way a conference is "counted" is the way a conference is paid.

The new Big East is probably an overall better basketball conference than the SEC. But one cannot call the new Big East a "power basketball conference" when they make $4 million and the SEC makes over $50 million. If the BE is a "power conference" then they'd be paid like the P5.

The AAC in football is a very strong conference. It may not be as overall strong as the P5 but it will routinely have its top teams play competitive football against good P5 programs. The problem with the AAC is not the level of football competition....it is the level of pay. If the AAC was paid by its level of competition then the AAC would be making around $20 million while ACC teams make $30 million. Clearly that is not happening...

The P5 is all about money. It was never about competition. You cannot carve out a "power" exception for the new Big East if the money isn't there to back that exception.

Apples and oranges.... The only reason the SEC is making $50 million is because of football. The breakout for basketball is probably very close to the $4 million that The Big East teams are making. The Big East is a power basketball conference.

 

[stamfordhusky]

Vandy lost by double digits to Missouri. MISSOURI! Yet somehow they got in. I can't figure it out.

I

Six wins over top 50 teams in last 7 weeks. Three wins vs top ten.