Pomeroy: NCAA abuses statistics to stack the deck against small schools

[nomar]

How the NCAA Abuses Statistics to Stack the Deck Against Small Schools

Not sure if this has been posted elsewhere.

 

[Travelman6]

Illinois State got the shaft. There have been some pretty bad shafts in the past as I recall, but this ranks up there. Marquette, MSU and Vandy all get in while Ill St and UTA are left out in the cold.

 

[chickenhead]

Illinois State got the shaft. There have been some pretty bad shafts in the past as I recall, but this ranks up there. Marquette, MSU and Vandy all get in while Ill St and UTA are left out in the cold.

This is a knock on RPI, not against teams.

On KenPom, Marquette is #28, MSU is #43, Vandy is #34 and Illinois St is #51.

 

[Travelman6]

And yet....Vandy sucks.....

 

[Jimdish255]

Add SC and Xavier to that highly suspect list.

 

[champs99and04]

I don't have a problem with Illinois State being left out, but he nails the overall point with this article. The fact that more people don't see these problems is worrisome, as it always is with a system in which the people in power have no incentive to see the corruption right in front of their faces.

 

[billybud]

You still have to beat someone.....whether football or basketball. It's tough when you try to mix apples and oranges as mixed as the leagues are.

Illinois State beat just ONE top 50 team (Wichita State...the only Top 50 on their schedule and they went 1-2 vs the Shockers) and they had losses to Murray State, San Francisco, and Tulsa. Wichita State was also the only team in the Top 100 RPI that the Redbirds played.

Cuse went 6-8 vs Top 50 and was also left out...poor RPI sealed their fate.

If RPI were the only metric used, the Redbirds would be in....but you have to look at just who you played and beat...and who beat you.

 

[beakumhawks]

Vandy lost by double digits to Missouri. MISSOURI! Yet somehow they got in. I can't figure it out.

 

[storrsroars]

You still have to beat someone.....whether football or basketball. It's tough when you try to mix apples and oranges as mixed as the leagues are.

Illinois State beat just ONE top 50 team (Wichita State...the only Top 50 on their schedule and they went 1-2 vs the Shockers) and they had losses to Murray State, San Francisco, and Tulsa. Wichita State was also the only team in the Top 100 RPI that the Redbirds played.

Cuse went 6-8 vs Top 50 and was also left out...poor RPI sealed their fate.

If RPI were the only metric used, the Redbirds would be in....but you have to look at just who you played and beat...and who beat you.

If no P5/top 100 want to play Illinois St., what do you suggest they do?

 

[billybud]

I don't know....

Not insist on a home and home....maybe...play Top 100 in neutral site games?

UNC played Tulane, Chattanooga, Chaminade, Long Beach State, Monouth, Davidson, Radford

FSU played Iona, Charleston Southern, Winthrop, Temple, George Washington, Nicholls State, Samford, Manhatten

Ohio State played Providence, NC Central, Western Carolina, Jackson State, Marshall, FAU, Youngstown State

Kansas played Sienna, UAB, Long Beach State, UNC Asheville, UMKC, UNLV, Davidson


Many years ago...FSU couldn't get the big boys to come to Tallahassee to play football...so Bobby Bowden became "King of the Road"....

I remember October of 1981...played Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, and LSU on the road in Octobet 1981


Long Beach State are the Road Warriors of Basketball this year.....This year, Long Beach State basketball played Wichita State in Kansas, UNC in North Carolina, Louisville in Louisville, Florida Gulf Coast in Fort Myers, Kansas in Kansas, Texas in Austin, Eastern Michigan in Ypsilanti

 

[Tyler2Rings]

You still have to beat someone.....whether football or basketball. It's tough when you try to mix apples and oranges as mixed as the leagues are.

Illinois State beat just ONE top 50 team (Wichita State...the only Top 50 on their schedule and they went 1-2 vs the Shockers) and they had losses to Murray State, San Francisco, and Tulsa. Wichita State was also the only team in the Top 100 RPI that the Redbirds played.

Cuse went 6-8 vs Top 50 and was also left out...poor RPI sealed their fate.

If RPI were the only metric used, the Redbirds would be in....but you have to look at just who you played and beat...and who beat you.

The article makes a good point here saying that, given a different schedule (for example, Marquette's), Illinois State certainly would have had more than 1 top 50 win. Similarly, given Illinois State's schedule, a power team (Marquette) would have certainly had a few of ISU's "bad losses."

 

[Mr. Wonderful]

If no P5/top 100 want to play Illinois St., what do you suggest they do?

There is something they can do, but I think it only further proves the point of how much the deck is stacked against them.

They can play a vast majority of their non-conference games on the road. This is an insanely risky strategy that few schools have ever done successfully (think Temple under John Chaney).

At least the committee left Syracuse out. Had they left Illinois St. out but given a bid to Syracuse, then that would've been rubbing salt in the wound, because it would've reinforced the double standard that only non-P5 schools need to win on the road.

 

[billybud]

and I wonder how Cuse would have done on Illinois State's schedule?

 

[Mr. Wonderful]

and I wonder how Cuse would have done on Illinois State's schedule?

Not nearly as good as Illinois St. did. Believe it.

 

[billybud]

It is a conundrum...Illinois did need to play someone else in the Top 50....and they would have had to do it on the road....

It is take to the road and build a rep...or cry about not making the cut.

Risky to play a better team on the road? yep. And that risk might have it's rewarf.

 

[sdhusky]

How the NCAA Abuses Statistics to Stack the Deck Against Small Schools

Not sure if this has been posted elsewhere.

I think its cute that some people still play pretend and ignore that college athletics are big business. First.

 

[billybud]

Not nearly as good as Illinois St. did. Believe it.

It's hard to figure Cuse this year...they did beat Virginia (a 5 seed), FSU (3 seed), Duke (2 seed) and Miami (8 seed)....yet lost a bunch of games...including to Boston College.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

Didn't read the article yet, but the whole top 25 / top 50 wins idea is the biggest farce of all time.

Sets up so the power leagues win/lose against each other enough to stay within those rankings and then counts a win vs #26 as they same as #50.

Just idiotic.

 

[Mr. Wonderful]

It is take to the road and build a rep...or cry about not making the cut.

P5 schools are definitely not held to that standard. Are you ok with separate standards for P5 and non-P5 schools, with the more difficult standard applied to non-P5?

Thanks for conceding that the selection standards are inherently unfair.

 

[billybud]

It is not easy for a non P5 to become the Champion...other than Villanova and UConn out of the east....you have to go back 26 years to find a team not now P5 who became the Champion (UNLV).

 

[billybud]

P5 schools are definitely not held to that standard. Are you ok with separate standards for P5 and non-P5 schools, with the more difficult standard applied to non-P5?

Thanks for conceding that the selection standards are inherently unfair.

I've lived through it in football...play good teams out of conference and it will raise your profile and may get you there. And you may have to travel.

When FSU was running through the ACC during their dynasty run of the 90's...they would have never been ranked as high if they hadn't played two of the Top 5 winningest teams of the 90's yearly in OOC (Miami and Florida) and added four games with Nebraska (another Top 5 winningest team of that decade).

If you don't play good teams in your conference, yes, you need to augment your schedule.

 

[billybud]

Yes...the selection standards will be unfair in that they will favor teams who play and beat good teams...and some leagues do not have the strength of other leagues.

And, yes, the P6 leagues ( BE in basketball is a power league) tend to each have a few power teams...and thus an advantage.

As long as you try to to rank the teams on their perceived strength...you will always have disputes.

An Illinois State will say..."well, we may not have played many good teams, but we would have done well if we had".

Another team will sniff..."Easy for you to say when you don't play 'em. We have".

 

[Mr. Wonderful]

I've lived through it in football...play good teams out of conference and it will raise your profile and may get you there. And you may have to travel.

When FSU was running through the ACC during their dynasty run of the 90's...they would have never been ranked as high if they hadn't played two of the Top 5 winningest teams of the 90's yearly in OOC (Miami and Florida) and added four games with Nebraska (another Top 5 winningest team of that decade).

If you don't play good teams in your conference, yes, you need to augment your schedule.

I laughed when I read this, seriously. How predictable that you would try to claim some sort of equivalency to football.

It's such a weak rebuttal that rightfully, I should've just ignored it.

So because Florida St. had to play in-state rivals Miami and Florida in home-and-homes 20+ years ago, it justifies requiring true road game dominated non-conference schedules for mid-majors in order to earn respect? I'm sorry, but the assertion that the two have anything at all in common is flat ridiculous.

 

[dwalks93]

It is not easy for a non P5 to become the Champion...other than Villanova and UConn out of the east....you have to go back 26 years to find a team not now P5 who became the Champion (UNLV).

Hmmm, leaving out UConn and Nova excludes 5 of the last 20 basketball championships. When you add in UNLV that means 6 of the last 20 championships were won by non-P5 schools...30% is not an insignificant number ....

But hey, lets stick with the narrative that only P5 basketball programs can win the big games....basketball is not the same as football.

 

[Mr. Wonderful]

Yes...the selection standards will be unfair in that they will favor teams who play and beat good teams...and some leagues do not have the strength of other leagues.

And, yes, the P6 leagues ( BE in basketball is a power league) tend to each have a few power teams...and thus an advantage.

As long as you try to to rank the teams on their perceived strength...you will always have disputes.

An Illinois State will say..."well, we may not have played many good teams, but we would have done well if we had".

Another team will sniff..."Easy for you to say when you don't play 'em. We have".

I'd be ok with that...as long as just before the brackets are announced, CBS were required to read a disclaimer to the audience that fairness is not part of the process, and that, like in football, half the leagues have no shot at post-season at-large bids no matter what they do or how good they are. Let's tell it like it really is.