Poll(s) Befuddlement with a question

[cabbie191]

I don't generally take a lot of stock in WCBB polls, mainly because it seems that most nights, top 25 teams can look awful. I just watched on tape delay the first half of the FSU/ASU game and was amazed/dismayed at how "wooden" ASU played in the first half.

Looking at the newest polls: Tennessee lost by 14 to Stanford, and barely hung on to defeat Oregon State by 3. They remained static in both the AP and coaches polls.

Oregon State beat two in-state schools by a combined total of over 60 points and lost to Tennessee by 3. They dropped 4 spots in the AP poll and 2 spots in the coaches poll.

And Stanford, which had one other easy win besides the game against the Lady Vols, moved up 3 spots in both polls.

Just my opinion - it seems that the voters took it easy on Tennessee relative to how they treated Stanford and Oregon State.

My question for those who follow WCBB more intently then I do, do you give one poll more credence over the other, and why?

 

[UcMiami]

There is inertia in both polls generally and they tend to respond more to losses than wins. But it also has to do with position in the poll. A team in the top ten losing its first real test to a team outside the top ten is going to lose more ground (especially at home) than a mid teens team losing to another moderately ranked team and of that team splits against two of those teams it may not move at all. And for Stanford, if they had beaten a top five team, they likely would have moved further, but beating TN = meh.

 

[Orangutan]

I don't give either poll much credence at all. I prefer to monitor the Sagarin and Massey rankings. I think they do a much better job of giving an accurate picture of wcbb without the biases inherent to polls. For example, I think if, say, Vanderbilt had put up the results Tennessee has to-date, they probably wouldn't be ranked.

Both polls start with pre-season assumptions that are often incorrect and work from there. I'd say they're about equally flawed.

 

[PhillyCoach]

I don't give either poll much credence at all. I prefer to monitor the Sagarin and Massey rankings. I think they do a much better job of giving an accurate picture of wcbb without the biases inherent to polls. For example, I think if, say, Vanderbilt had put up the results Tennessee has to-date, they probably wouldn't be ranked.

Both polls start with pre-season assumptions that are often incorrect and work from there. I'd say they're about equally flawed.

Yo O - Nice take on the whole Poll thing--even better was your Vanderbilt example. Happy Holidays to you and your Hairy friends.

 

[easttexastrash]

I wouldn't have dropped Tennessee either. Playing on Stanford's home court can be tricky. And beating a higher ranked opponent by 5 points on their home court is certainly not worth dropping them over.

 

[EricLA]

I don't give either poll much credence at all. I prefer to monitor the Sagarin and Massey rankings. I think they do a much better job of giving an accurate picture of wcbb without the biases inherent to polls. For example, I think if, say, Vanderbilt had put up the results Tennessee has to-date, they probably wouldn't be ranked.

Both polls start with pre-season assumptions that are often incorrect and work from there. I'd say they're about equally flawed.

Agreed on the polls - and the inertia comments. Even if Tenn lost both games I doubt they'd have dropped below 20 or 21. I don't think Oregon State is a top 15 program, probably not even top 20. I think they'd lose to schools like Cal, UCLA, and Depaul.

 

[cockhrnleghrn]

It's basketball; polls don't mean nearly as much as they do in football.

 

[meyers7]

It's basketball; polls don't mean nearly as much as they do in football.

Of course you would say that, you're ranked #2.

 

[UcMiami]

I don't give either poll much credence at all. I prefer to monitor the Sagarin and Massey rankings. I think they do a much better job of giving an accurate picture of wcbb without the biases inherent to polls. For example, I think if, say, Vanderbilt had put up the results Tennessee has to-date, they probably wouldn't be ranked.

Both polls start with pre-season assumptions that are often incorrect and work from there. I'd say they're about equally flawed.

Agree on everything here except to note that even Massey and Sagarin have trouble early in the year, but really come on strong by the middle of conference play. The problem is that you have 350 schools and very few common opponent let alone head to head games to work with for the first few months for most teams. Add in the fact that you have some pretty distinct breaks in team quality between the uconn/ND/SC type teams, the next 25 or so teams, the next maybe fifty, and then a pool of really poor teams. And the scores between teams across those breaks can be pretty random in terms of MOV - Uconn can hammer a team like OSU by 45 and play a relatively tight game against DePaul but that doesn't really say anything about the relative strength of DePaul and OSU.

 

[uconnell]

It's basketball; polls don't mean nearly as much as they do in football.

As you fond out last year.

 

[reno tony]

The one thing I have noticed over the years is that at times, losses to UCONN are pretty much ignored. N.D. lost to UCONN this year and stayed number 3 in the polls. DePaul lost to UCONN and moved up in the polls. Sometimes they get it right.

 

[WestCoastFan]

It's basketball; polls don't mean nearly as much as they do in football.

Well said. Who cares when 64 teams will get a shot.

 

[ThisJustIn]

Well said. Who cares when 64 teams will get a shot.

Especially since the polls don't play in to the selection of the 64

 

[KnightBridgeAZ]

Like the ratings mentioned above, I think the polls get better as the season progresses. I still don't think they capture an "exact" ranking, but present a reasonable picture.

The issue at the beginning of the season is the worst, as the first poll is mostly a guess, yet is used as the "basis" for the poll the next week. Also, no one sees all the games, certainly not the coaches but even the media folks at best see scores and maybe a few highlights for most teams in the top 25.

The Vanderbilt / Tennessee point is well taken if you were constructing a poll from scratch - not a chance of Vandy getting in, but if they were where Tennessee was at the beginning, then they would probably be close to where Tennessee is now. The presumption is that Tennessee is better than their losses and will perform at a high level going forward. A lot of guesswork and prediction involved.

 

[PhillyCoach]

Especially since the polls don't play in to the selection of the 64

I would mostly agree, but the polls would help someone in regard to the last few selections. That could go either way so I would not argue too strongly.
IMHO, where the polls do come into play is the seeding--and especially the #1 and 2 seeds. If you look at the past, those final 8 selections are pretty close to the polls.

 

[WestCoastFan]

I would mostly agree, but the polls would help someone in regard to the last few selections. That could go either way so I would not argue too strongly.
IMHO, where the polls do come into play is the seeding--and especially the #1 and 2 seeds. If you look at the past, those final 8 selections are pretty close to the polls.

Yeah, good point. I'm talking more about the field as a whole. Regardless, the good thing about it is you have a chance to settle it on the court, whether you're a #1, or #3 or #7 seed.

Seems like the FF is still going to be mostly the same perpetrators: UConn, ND, SC and then Baylor/MD/wildcard. We'll see.

 

[Rudy2014]

Guess TN is like an ex-wife or husband. Sometimes they're tough to get rid of. Always had a touch of animosity toward the Notre Dame football team for example, not saying that its not a great institution with good academics, sports and students (several friends went there), BUT in days past it used to irk me that the ND football team would have to lose 6 or more games before it dropped out of the Top 10. Say what?
ND isn't the issue nowadays and tradition goes a long way. ENTER Tennessee.
They lost alot when their great coach, the snarling lady in the orange jacket, who I didn't like very much but respected, had to leave the program.
TN was great. Wouldn't mind seeing them get back on the horse some day. I think it would be good for the ladies game.

 

[PhillyCoach]

Guess TN is like an ex-wife or husband. Sometimes they're tough to get rid of. Always had a touch of animosity toward the Notre Dame football team for example, not saying that its not a great institution with good academics, sports and students (several friends went there), BUT in days past it used to irk me that the ND football team would have to lose 6 or more games before it dropped out of the Top 10. Say what?
ND isn't the issue nowadays and tradition goes a long way. ENTER Tennessee.
They lost alot when their great coach, the snarling lady in the orange jacket, who I didn't like very much but respected, had to leave the program.
TN was great. Wouldn't mind seeing them get back on the horse some day. I think it would be good for the ladies game.

We think alike.
Just for something different to do I popped over to VolNation.com (the Tenn WBB) and boy are they going crazy about their team. They really want to get rid of Holly. They are down on DD too. Russell is struggling and does not look good. There are even threads on UConn and the transfers. It was very amusing reading their take on WBB as a whole.
Their fans don't think that Tenn should be in the top 25!!

 

[Rixxx]

We think alike.
Just for something different to do I popped over to VolNation.com (the Tenn WBB) and boy are they going crazy about their team. They really want to get rid of Holly. They are down on DD too. Russell is struggling and does not look good. There are even threads on UConn and the transfers. It was very amusing reading their take on WBB as a whole.
Their fans don't think that Tenn should be in the top 25!!

You are right about VolNation and its feelings about Russell. They are saying she should be benched. I have watched a few of the TN games and at times she becomes invisible. After watching Geno's teams over the years, I can definitely see coaching in players that I do not see at TN. It could be a long season for TN.