POLL: how good will UConn be in 2014-15 versus 2013-14?

[johnnyc]

I selected about the same or slightly better. Defense is, as it was, the difference.

 

[Suebird10fan]

Same here, I only remember the St. John's game. That's the only game we lost that we overwhelmingly should have won. That's why I like our gals so much - consistancy. They don't lose games that they should win, i.e. to obviously inferior teams.
But the closer we get to parity statistics say that an unpredictable loss will ocurr even though we can't think of a team that will beat us. Sooner or later an accident will happen. Even when you're 25 points better than the team you're playing the odds may be say 1/100 or even 1/500. However, when you're only 15 points better the chances for the accident to ocurr increase. It's called Gaussian distribution. Even a 50 to 1 horse wins a race once in a while.

With respect to the gulf between the top two or three and everyone else we are moving away from parity not closer

 

[HuskyPhan]

First off, happily we can be about 80% as good as last years team and bring home NC#10.

Having said that, I believe there is a very real chance that we will be a better team BY THE END OF THE SEASON. Let's not forget that the true dominance displayed by the team last year was on the defensive end. I truly believe that we will be an even stronger defensive unit this year. Stewie and Mo are going to continue to get better-I know-it's hard to fathom. KML will be better simply by being healthy for a full season. In the 5 slot, we pick up a ton of D by Kiah playing more minutes. Although I haven't seen her play, word on the street is that Kia Nurse has got some serious D skills. Assuming Morgan is healthy, we pick up more strong D minutes. From what I hear on all our incoming freshman, there are no slouches in the Defensive dept and I'm sure Geno and Co. will have them dialed in come tourney time.

This team will be really awesome-but if you want to talk about the greatest Uconn team of all time, you have to look into your crystal ball toward the 2015-16 team....ok, ok, one year at at time!! Go Huskies!!!

 

[UConnCat]

I selected about the same or slightly better. Defense is, as it was, the difference.

So glad you posted this.

I went back and looked at the stats from the championship game against Notre Dame. The score at halftime was 45-38. Notre Dame -- one of the best offensive teams in the country -- was still very much in the game. So what happened in the second half:

• Notre Dame scored 20 points in the 2nd half
• At the 10:00 mark of the 2nd half, Notre Dame had scored 4 points
• At the 16:00 mark of the 2nd half, Notre Dame had scored 9 points
• Eleven of Notre Dame's 20 second half points were scored with less than 4 mins remaining in the game.

As Geno said and the numbers bear out, UConn's defense in the 2nd half was incredible. What other team scores and defends like UConn?

 

[hoophuskee]

In order to be better imo three things must happen:

1-- Morgan Tuck needs to be real good.
2-- Two of the freshmen or Saniya and one frosh must be contributors so when one is off the other can contrubute in a positive manner.
3-- In big games Kiah can't melt.

Of course if Morgan Tuck is very good/excellent it's okay if Kiah melts.
If one of the freshmen orr Saniya is real good and Morgan and Kiah play well then of course the 2nd player not quite as important. I'm looking forward to see all the frosh and to see how Saniya does. .

 

[JoePgh]

In order to be better imo three things must happen:

1-- Morgan Tuck needs to be real good.
2-- Two of the freshmen or Saniya and one frosh must be contributors so when one is off the other can contrubute in a positive manner.
3-- In big games Kiah can't melt.

Of course if Morgan Tuck is very good/excellent it's okay if Kiah melts.
If one of the freshmen orr Saniya is real good and Morgan and Kiah play well then of course the 2nd player not quite as important. I'm looking forward to see all the frosh and to see how Saniya does. .

When (in recent times) has Kiah "melted" in big games? I don't remember a single big game this past season (certainly not in the NCAA tournament) where she did not do her normal excellent++ job of rebounding and shot blocking. She was not counted on to score and did not score much, but showed some signs that she could do that too (although not as a primary scoring option).

If she impacts the game in 2014-15 with rebounding and shot blocking, and does so for 30 minutes, and scores as a secondary option (e.g., on putbacks or when the defense is drawn away from her by other threats), she will more than adequately fill the starter's position at center. I think averages of 8 points, 12 rebounds, and 3-to-5 blocks per 30-minute game are a realistic expectation.

 

[ucbart]

This question is easy to answer for me:

We will be really, really, really good, but not better than last year. Our entire offensive system has to change. We graduated the person in which our offense ran through last year, Stefanie Dolson. Kiah Stokes, whom I love and made major improvements, is not the same player as Stefanie. She is much more athletic and will wreak havoc on defense and the boards, but she is nowhere near the passer, seer of the floor or decision maker than Stefanie was. With that being said though, her, Stewie and Tuck in the post could be fun as well.

As for losing Hartley, you don't replace with her Chong or any of the freshman either. Last year we were a well-oiled machine that to me, rivaled 1998 Tennessee and the 2002 and 2009 UCONN teams as the best of all time. We were loaded with AA's at every position. This year, we don't have that. What we do have though is the best PG, shooter and player in the country, so this could be fun........and I can't wait!

However, other people lost a lot to graduation also, so we, IMO, should start the season as #1.

 

[JRRRJ]

I see lots of angst about offense with the loss of Stef's distribution skills.

I don't share it.

With Stewie at the high post and Moria/Sadie/Gabby as speed on the perimeter and KML/Courtney keeping the defense honest, I expect to see a lot of give & go being run, with the option for Stewie to turn & fire if it's open, and the off-side perimeter making a slightly-delayed slash for the backdoor.

How you gonna defend against something like that?

Not to mention a pair of 50% 3-point shooters with nearly unlimited range. (Well, I guess I DID mention them, but it's worth repeating.)

I chose slightly better, because I think they'll have better defense and score as much or more.

 

[Sluconn Husky]

Not to mention a pair of 50% 3-point shooters with nearly unlimited range.

Other than KML, who is the second shooter you're referring to?

 

[meyers7]

Other than KML, who is the second shooter you're referring to?

and KML/Courtney keeping the defense honest,

 

[Sluconn Husky]

If that's so, I think we might be overdoing it on the Ekmark expectations. A freshman to come in and shoot in the 50% range from three? Even KML didn't do that. We don't know that Ekmark will ever be able to shoot that well. Her HS 3-pt percentage isn't available so we don't have any baseline to use, just some highlight clips and reports from recruiting services.

 

[baggerbob]

They may have a loss somewhere, but with KML, and Morgan healthy, and the freshmen, by the Tournament they will be better. The scary thing for all of college basketball is Stewie is the best player, and has only scratched the surface of where she might end up. In an article here, I don't know how to enter them, but talking about Breanna's drive to be the best. " She seems convinced, her mother Heather said, that some unknown female basketball player, somewhere else on the planet, has skills she lacks. That Drives Her."

 

[hoophuskee]

When (in recent times) has Kiah "melted" in big games? I don't remember a single big game this past season (certainly not in the NCAA tournament) where she did not do her normal excellent++ job of rebounding and shot blocking. She was not counted on to score and did not score much, but showed some signs that she could do that too (although not as a primary scoring option).

If she impacts the game in 2014-15 with rebounding and shot blocking, and does so for 30 minutes, and scores as a secondary option (e.g., on putbacks or when the defense is drawn away from her by other threats), she will more than adequately fill the starter's position at center. I think averages of 8 points, 12 rebounds, and 3-to-5 blocks per 30-minute game are a realistic expectation.

Sure I agree with much of what you say. With that said how many big games are we going to have? Six? The title of this thread is comparing this year's team to last year's all-time great team and most agree this year's team is about the same. If they are about the same, it comes down to “title” or” huge disappointment.”

As you say Kiah can do well with the averages you cite. But in that one game, in which this team will be judged, especially in the NCAA's, she can get 4 points and five rebounds because of foul trouble (if her average is 8 pts 12 rebounds there will be games where she takes a big dip in those numbers. Not every game is at a player’s average.) . Once she gets into foul trouble like any player, she can become passive.

The way a team like Notre Dame plays, I think we can agree they purposely thrown their bodies into us with the hopes of getting us into foul trouble along with flopping. This year anyone can see we don't have post depth. Teams like ND are going to flop (offense and defense) and force the refs to make a call. We've seen the home job ND got two years ago from incompetent refs. We saw Steph in her frosh year get at least one if not two tick-tack calls go against her. It had nothing to do with experience, they were just lousy calls.

Especially if Morgan isn't healthy, Kiah needs to be on the floor and productive. I put her of concern because in part I believe refs can have a huge impact on how the game is played. We know we've heard the ND coach state that UCONN "fouls" and gets away with it. An incompetent ref or two can sway the game as MM continues to whine. Those big six games is how this team will ultimately be judged. And imo Kiah is essential if Morgan Tuck isn’t healthy. And the refs can be a concern in impacting how Kiah can play.