Points per game challenge

[cferraro04]

So here is the challenge... I am listing all the current players on the UConn roster, I will also include their average last year, including those who transferred and those who played high school last year. All you have to do is put what you think the player will average this year. The challenge is, after you have listed all the expected averages for next year, is the total 90 or less?


Name................................................................Avg. 2024-25......................................................................Predicted AVG. 2025-2026

KK Arnold..............................................5.5 (2023-24; avg 8.9 points)
Bianca Quinonez...............................10.3 points
Kelis Fischer........................................13.5 points
Jana El Alfy............................................5.0
Kayleigh Heckel..................................6.2
Allie Ziebell..........................................2.8
Ashlynn Shade...................................7.7 (2023-24; avg 11 points)
Sarah Strong......................................16.4
Serah Williams..................................19.2
Morgan Cheli......................................2.5
Ice Brady...............................................3.6
Caroline Ducharme..........................1.2 2021-22; averaged 9.8 points
..................................................................2022-23; averaged 7.4 points)
Ayanna Patterson.............................(2022 - 2023; Averaged - 2.2 points)
Azzi Fudd..............................................13.6 (2022-2023; Avg. - 15.1 points)
Gandy Malou-Mamel.......................16.6 points / 9.6 rebounds)

Total average per player from last year...121.3. Of course, high school averages may not translate well at the college level. But, will that be offset by players like Azzi Fudd, Ashlynn Shade, KK Arnold, Caroline Doty, Ayanna Patterson, Morgan Cheli, Allie Ziebell, Ice Brady, Jana El-Alfy, and Sarah Strong improving upon last year's average. I am telling you this team will be an offensive Juggernaut, and it will be very hard to keep this team under 100.

 

[Bald Husky]

What's the point?

 

[Bone Dog]

This looks like fun. But if the purpose is to make a case for a particular pts/game number it might be more useful to look at last year’s total pts/game for the team, and maybe that of a few other years. Summing our expectations for individuals out of context is likely to be misleading.

In 24-25, the team averaged 81.7 points. I’d be surprised to see an average much higher than that next season, and it may even turn out to be a little lower. After all, we just lost the most prolific scorer in UConn history (yup, I went there) to the WNBA. But who knows? Maybe Sarah will up her scoring a little this season, and maybe Serah will do the same in a new system, and Azzi may have the career season we’ve all been hoping for. And maybe Kayleigh’s energy added to KK’s will juice the backcourt just a little bit. That’s a lot of ‘maybes.’ But I have faith.

If I look at UConn teams that scored in the high 80s or even closer to 90 pts/game I see that they averaged more possessions and a higher fg% than this season. Can next year’s team find 4 more possessions/game and shoot 4% better than this year’s team? It seems like a small difference, but I suspect in reality it is a tall order. Still, I won’t put anything past Sarah Azzi and Serah.

In any event, I’ll be happy to see them average 81.7 again, especially if they hold opponents to 52.2 or even less. I’d look for an improvement in the latter stat before the former. This team looks to have some pretty serious defensive chops.

 

[stamfordhusky]

Note that summing up all of these averages, when some of the players will have played far less than all of the games, is meaningless. For example, if Gandhi theoretically averaged five points a game, but only played in eight games, then her effect on the teams total would only be about one point per game. Not eight.

 

[Cuango]

This looks like fun. But if the purpose is to make a case for a particular pts/game number it might be more useful to look at last year’s total pts/game for the team, and maybe that of a few other years. Summing our expectations for individuals out of context is likely to be misleading.

In 24-25, the team averaged 81.7 points. I’d be surprised to see an average much higher than that next season, and it may even turn out to be a little lower. After all, we just lost the most prolific scorer in UConn history (yup, I went there) to the WNBA. But who knows? Maybe Sarah will up her scoring a little this season, and maybe Serah will do the same in a new system, and Azzi may have the career season we’ve all been hoping for. And maybe Kayleigh’s energy added to KK’s will juice the backcourt just a little bit. That’s a lot of ‘maybes.’ But I have faith.

If I look at UConn teams that scored in the high 80s or even closer to 90 pts/game I see that they averaged more possessions and a higher fg% than this season. Can next year’s team find 4 more possessions/game and shoot 4% better than this year’s team? It seems like a small difference, but I suspect in reality it is a tall order. Still, I won’t put anything past Sarah Azzi and Serah.

In any event, I’ll be happy to see them average 81.7 again, especially if they hold opponents to 52.2 or even less. I’d look for an improvement in the latter stat before the former. This team looks to have some pretty serious defensive chops.

I just think that with Geno’s unrelenting focus on defense as the primary foundation of this team and the accompanying fact that most of our games are laughers by the middle of the third quarter, it is very unlikely that we will see much more than mid 80s at the outside. It certainly seems like they could score in the 90s, perhaps even approaching the century mark but similarly to individual scoring, it just never seems to happen. I certainly believe we’ve had a number of players who, talent wise, are capable of scoring with the Watsons, Hidalgos, Latsons, Clarks etc but in spite of the talent, it just never seems to happen. Geno’s style of play just does not allow for that kind of individual dominance over the course of a season. Instead it encourages a sort of spreading out of the talent. I could far more easily see Sarah for example, at some point in the next three years, approaching a triple double average than seeing her set some sort of scoring mark (for UConn) at say…25ppg. She definitely could average 25 ppg but is not likely to do so here as she sees (and enjoys) the value of other things besides scoring. That, in a nutshell, explains why virtually everyone remarks on the beauty of how our girls play the game.

 

[Skeets]

While this could be fun, you have to realize that you can't look at averages. Non-rotation players will increase their averages in non-competitive BE games and the core rotation will increase their averages in tough OOC games. Put all the averages together and it looks like the team should average 100+ points per game. Not going to happen.

 

[Zarathustra]

What's the point?

I see it as a reality check. My hunch is less than 90!

 

[jabstep]

Very interesting discussion. I think a factor not yet being considered in our defense. What I expect next season from the Huskies is an even better defense than this year. This will slow the game down due to the many clock violations I expect from our defense. This will not allow us to increase our scoring average from 81.7. So I will expect us to be around 78 to 80.

 

[cferraro04]

What's the point?

Really? The point is it is going to be hard to keep this team under 90 points. Too much offense. Since I brought this up the first time, many disagreed that the team would average 90 or more points, citing history. The exercise would allow some folks to show how this team scores less than 90

 

[cferraro04]

This looks like fun. But if the purpose is to make a case for a particular pts/game number it might be more useful to look at last year’s total pts/game for the team, and maybe that of a few other years. Summing our expectations for individuals out of context is likely to be misleading.

In 24-25, the team averaged 81.7 points. I’d be surprised to see an average much higher than that next season, and it may even turn out to be a little lower. After all, we just lost the most prolific scorer in UConn history (yup, I went there) to the WNBA. But who knows? Maybe Sarah will up her scoring a little this season, and maybe Serah will do the same in a new system, and Azzi may have the career season we’ve all been hoping for. And maybe Kayleigh’s energy added to KK’s will juice the backcourt just a little bit. That’s a lot of ‘maybes.’ But I have faith.

If I look at UConn teams that scored in the high 80s or even closer to 90 pts/game I see that they averaged more possessions and a higher fg% than this season. Can next year’s team find 4 more possessions/game and shoot 4% better than this year’s team? It seems like a small difference, but I suspect in reality it is a tall order. Still, I won’t put anything past Sarah Azzi and Serah.

In any event, I’ll be happy to see them average 81.7 again, especially if they hold opponents to 52.2 or even less. I’d look for an improvement in the latter stat before the former. This team looks to have some pretty serious defensive chops.

Bone Dog...that is my point...I don't think this is a stereotypical year. Last year, many players were either injured or just coming back from injury. This year will be different. The addition of Serah, Blanca, and Kaleigh will have an immediate impact on the teams offense. Azzi will hopefully be healthy from the start of the season and will be the number one go-to shooter...she will average far more than 13.5 per game. I believe Sarah Strong will be virtually unstoppable. KK and Shade will regain their freshman-year averages. Jana and Ice will show improvement. Ayanna hasn't played in a year and a half...she will add points to the total.

It is not a question of what I would be happy to see the team average...I would be happy with an undefeated season, which I think they are completely capable of doing. The question is actually quite simple...it is how do you keep this team under 90. I think it is going to be difficult. The only way it happens is if Geno deliberately takes his foot off the gas and uses the 2nd half to work on aspects of the half court offense.

 

[Boreifs]

Very interesting discussion. I think a factor not yet being considered in our defense. What I expect next season from the Huskies is an even better defense than this year. This will slow the game down due to the many clock violations I expect from our defense. This will not allow us to increase our scoring average from 81.7. So I will expect us to be around 78 to 80.

I would expect more turnovers rather than clock violations, which would have the opposite effect.

 

[Alydar]

One thing to remember is that the "pts/game" stat is calculated by dividing pts by the number of games they appeared in. If a player only played 2 games all season and scored 25 pts the official stats would show 12.5 pts/game for that player.

UConn's team scored 80.3/game in 2025 but if you add up the individual averages it totals 90.8.

 

[Bone Dog]

Bone Dog...that is my point...I don't think this is a stereotypical year. Last year, many players were either injured or just coming back from injury. This year will be different. The addition of Serah, Blanca, and Kaleigh will have an immediate impact on the teams offense. Azzi will hopefully be healthy from the start of the season and will be the number one go-to shooter...she will average far more than 13.5 per game. I believe Sarah Strong will be virtually unstoppable. KK and Shade will regain their freshman-year averages. Jana and Ice will show improvement. Ayanna hasn't played in a year and a half...she will add points to the total.

It is not a question of what I would be happy to see the team average...I would be happy with an undefeated season, which I think they are completely capable of doing. The question is actually quite simple...it is how do you keep this team under 90. I think it is going to be difficult. The only way it happens is if Geno deliberately takes his foot off the gas and uses the 2nd half to work on aspects of the half court offense.

Sensei, I don’t doubt that the individual players will be at least as awesome as last season. The issue is opportunities to score. That’s a difficult limit to raise. We already led D1 in FG%, so the only path to more points is likely to come from the defense. We forced 18.7 turnovers last season. Could we raise that to 21 or 22? Maybe. But that’s a tall order. Our defense was already a very tight ship last season. They only allowed 52 points for a differential of 30. That’s what I’m more focused on.

When I look at individual players, I expect Sarah to up her scoring by 2 or 3 points and Azzi to up hers by 5 or 6. But Serah is likely to score less at UConn than she did at Wisconsin. Will there be big moves in the rest of the roster? Somehow, I doubt it. If Caroline or Blanca add 10 points, it will come out of someone else’s totals. Last season we had 63 FG attempts. Can we raise it by 4 or 5? Maybe, but this is also a difficult number to budge. In the end, I think it all comes down to team defense and FG%. Force more turnovers and this leads to quick shot opportunities. Shoot a slightly higher percentage and you get 4 or 5 more points.

 

[oldhusky]

Note that summing up all of these averages, when some of the players will have played far less than all of the games, is meaningless. For example, if Gandhi theoretically averaged five points a game, but only played in eight games, then her effect on the teams total would only be about one point per game. Not eight.

Yes adding up points per game without adjusting for games played will always overstate points per game for the team, unless every single player played in every single game the team played. A points per game number for players that would add up to the actual team number, would be to take the total points a player scored for the whole season divided by the number of games the team played, not the player.

Because of games missed due to injury, and other competitive games where Geno might have a rotation of say 10 and not play 5 of them by design, it is almost impossible to use per game averages for this purpose.

Whether this team will score a ton of points, or significantly more than last year is an interesting debate, but points per game for all 15 players should not be used IMO to try to make the point for the over, or the under argument for 90 points a game. I think the team might score a little more than last year, but mostly based on pace.

For all the talk about Uconn wanting to play fast, our possessions per game was actually below average. Yes we press some, and try to run when we have the opportunity, but when the break isn't there, we have a very patient offense that looks for a great shot, not the first shot.

This year should be more minutes for KK who likes to play fast, but also for K9, Kellis and Blanca. I suspect we might go with a little deeper rotation that allow us to press more as well. So I don't expect us to score more per possession, partly because we were so good at that anyway last year, and Paige was incredibly efficient, but I do think our pace will pick up resulting in more opportunities per game.

 

[cferraro04]

I think you can look at it in another way. Let's look at the minutes played by each returning player last season. The minutes lost by those who left the program, and the new players coming onto the roster, what are their minutes played next season per 40 games?

Last Season Average Minutes played per game and games played - Returning Players:

Sara Strong>>>>>>28.6>>>>>>>Games played 40
Azzi Fudd>>>>>>>26.5>>>>>>>Games played 34
Ashlynn Shade>>>>22.3>>>>>>>Games played 40
KK Arnold>>>>>>>21.2>>>>>>>Games played 40
Jana El-Alfy>>>>>>16.0>>>>>>>Games played 40
Ice Brady>>>>>>>15.7>>>>>>>Games played 32
Allie Ziebell>>>>>>8.2>>>>>>>Games played 33
Morgan Cheli>>>>>13.3>>>>>>Games played 24
Caroline Ducharme>>3.9>>>>>>>Games played 9

Total Minutes Played/minutes per 40 games Returning players:

Sarah Strong>>>>>>>2371.71>>>>>minutes per 40 games = 28.6
Azzi Fudd>>>>>>>>901>>>>>>>>Minutes per 40 games = 22.5
Ashlynn Shade>>>>>892>>>>>>>>Minutes per 40 games = 22.3
KK Arnold>>>>>>>>848>>>>>>>>Minutes per 40 games = 21.2
Jana El-Alfy>>>>>>>640>>>>>>>>Minutes per 40 games = 16.0
Ice Brady>>>>>>>>502.4>>>>>>>Minutes per 40 games = 12.6
Allie Ziebell>>>>>>>270.6>>>>>>Minutes per 40 games = 6.77
Morgan Cheli>>>>>>319.2>>>>>>Minutes per 40 games = 7.98
Caroline Ducharme>>35.1>>>>>>>Minutes per 40 games = .9

Total minutes played per 40 minutes - Returning Players>>>>>138.85

Minutes per game lost due to graduation/transfer and games played by each player:

Paige Bueckers>>>>>>30.3>>>>>>>Games played 38
Kaitlyn Chen>>>>>>>>23.5>>>>>>>Games played 40
Aubrey Griffin>>>>>>>11.1>>>>>>>Games played 16
Qadence Samuels>>>>>5.5>>>>>>>Games played 33

Total minutes played per 40 games (Average minutes per game times the number of games played divided by 40)

Paige Bueckers>>>>>>>30.3 X 38 = 1151.4>>>>Minutes per 40 games = 28.75
Kaitlyn Chen>>>>>>>>23.5 X 40 = 940>>>>>>>Minutes per 40 games = 23.5
Aubrey Griffin>>>>>>>11.1 X 9 = 99.9>>>>>>>Minutes per 40 games = 2.5
Qadence Samuels>>>>>5.5 X 33 = 181.5>>>>>>Minutes per 40 games = 4.54

Total minutes lost per 40 minutes (total of all minutes lost per 40 games)>>>>>59.29

Sum of total minutes lost per 40 minutes plus total minutes played per 40 games (59.29 + 138.85 = 198.14

Given that the total minutes available in each game is 200, the margin of error is 1.86 minutes. (200-198.14 = 1.86)

Points per player - Returning Players plus Serah Williams per 40 games

KK Arnold>>>>>5.5
Jana El-Alfy>>>>5.0
Allie Ziebell>>>>2.31
Ashlynn Shade>>7.7
Sarah Strong>>>16.5
Serah Williams>>19.2
Morgan Cheli>>>1.5
Ice Brady>>>>>>2.88
Caroline Ducharme>>.27

Total Points all returning players plus Serah Williams per 40 games = 60.86

Remaining players returning from injury, transferred, or recruited:

Bianca Quinonez...............................10.3 points
Kelis Fischer........................................13.5 points
Kayleigh Heckel..................................6.2
Ayanna Patterson.............................(2022 - 2023; Averaged - 2.2 points)
Gandy Malou-Mamel.......................16.6 points / 9.6 rebounds)

The questions are:,

1. Are there 30 points per game from these three players? I would say it will be difficult to consistently get 30 points from these five players per game,

2. Is it possible that Sarah Strong, Serah Williams, Azzi Fudd, Allie Ziebell, Ashlynn Shade, Morgan Cheli, Jana El-Alfy, Ice Brady, or KK might exceed their average points per 40 minutes per 40 games? I think the answer is a resounding...YES.

Conclusion:

I remained convinced that this team will average 90 or more points next season.

 

[Bone Dog]

Conclusion:

I remained convinced that this team will average 90 or more points next season.

Sensei, the problem with this analysis is that you’ve normalized the data as a per-40 across the season. I’m not criticizing your arithmetic. I just think it’s not the right analytical approach. If I want to know what to expect from Geno’s roster next season, I wouldn’t look at season long averages. I’d look at what the veterans did in March and April, or even just what they did in the tournament. This is what they did against the toughest competition once they’d completely clicked as a team. This is what they’re likely to bring to the new roster in November.

Paige Azzi and Sarah combined for roughly 60 points per game in the tournament. Subtract Paige from that and you have two players who have shown they can each regularly produce ~20 pts/g when it really counts. We also have evidence KK and Ash can produce ~9 points between them, and that Jana and Ice can score another 4 points between them. This means the returning core is likely to produce ~53 points per game. This is based on what they’ve actually done in Geno’s system playing with each other.

We can speculate much more loosely about the rest of the roster. But the evidence we have for them is sketchier. Can Serah replace Paige’s ~20 points playing in a new system with new teammates? She averaged 19 points at Wisconsin when she was the primary scoring option. How will that translate to her new situation? My expectation is for some lower number, perhaps 15 or 16 points. Will Kayleigh bring her 6 points entire into Geno’s system or should we expect something a little less? My quess is ~5 points.

That gets us a to possible 73 points from players we can speculate on with some relationship to evidence. I have no idea what to expect from the rest of the roster, though I have high hopes for all of them. Caroline and Ayanna haven’t played recently enough to know what to expect. Perhaps they’ll surprise us with their production. We know a little about Morgan and Allie, but we don’t know how much playing time they’ll get. As for Kelis Blanca and Gandy, we have even less to go on for our speculation.

Can we get the 17 points you’re hoping for from these 7 players? I really have no idea. And this shows me the limitations of this approach. This is why in an earlier post I looked at it from the other end, so to speak, and asked how many scoring opportunities this roster might create. There are fewer unknowns this way, though it’s still speculative too. A new rotation with several new parts and some veterans with an extra year to develop chemistry among themselves — there’s reason to be hopeful, but also plenty of uncertainty.

 

[Blond D.]

Everybody will average 6 points per game.

 

[Forego]

After reading all the statistical information I have come to the conclusion that my faithful Rockwell calculator might not be able to keep up with the current technology. (But it does have big green numbers and little rubber feet.)

 

[RockyMTblue2]

Wow you are early with this one @cferraro04 . I've tried but no matter how I jigger things it ends up a ridiculous number.

 

[jabstep]

We should guess what the Huskies score per game and give the winner something special such as free access to summer speculation on the Boneyard for all WCBB junkies. I find it an interesting and enjoyable way to spend some of my day, as I am a retired individual in Florida, and it is the rainy season here. Thank you all for the entertainment!!!! 82.1 is my guess