Point guards, free throws and mismatches...

[DavidinNaples]

Quick quiz. Who led UConn in free throw attempts this past year? KML, nope. Dolson's, nope. Hartley or Faris, nope. It was Stewie with 112 attempts. That is really low. The prior four years the leaders had 177, 173, 161 and 182 free tries from the charity stripe. UConn has historically used quick ball movement to create player mismatches and point guard penetration that results in easy baskets and plenty of free throws. from 2008-2012, UConn took 761, 718, 677 and 636 free throws. This year the team only took 590. Significant.

With Renee Montgomery and Tiffany Hayes, UConn had point guards who penetrated the lane and drew fouls. Renee had 125 attempts her Senior year and Tiffany had 173 and 177 her last two. With Tina Charles and Maya Moore, UConn had players that created mismatches which resulted in lots of baskets and/or free throws. Tina had 182 and 161 attempts her last two years and Maya had 124 and 159. In sharp contrast, UConn's opponents shot 295, 297 and 250 fewer free throws in those years. This past year the difference was only 114. Noticeable.

In the 2010-11 and 2011-12 seasons, UConn guards finished in 6 of the 8 top free throw spots. This year they had only 1 in the top 4 spots, Hartley was 3rd by 3 attempts over KML. Faris had career low attempts, Jefferson had 25 tries in 677 minutes and Doty had only 5 tries in 627 minutes. Clearly, Banks' injury impacted the comparison, but less penetration equals less free throws.

Coming back from 4 losses to win the N.C. so impressively makes this analysis moot and a bit silly, but it will be nice to see UConn go back to the old formula next year. Player mismatches (Stewie, Dolson, KML and Tuck) and penetrating guards (Hartley, Jefferson, Banks and maybe Chong) for lots of easy buckets and/or tons of free throws. Go Huskies!

 

[alexrgct]

The most shocking FT stat was Caroline Doty with five FT attempts all season.

 

[Georgestarr7]

I think that the amount of free throws or lack thereof reflects more on the style of offense than the effectiveness of the players. This year there were less drives to the basket and more popping from outside or classy passing to the inside..i.e. less fouls received and more points. The results were acceptable.

 

[DaddyChoc]

The most shocking FT stat was Caroline Doty with five FT attempts all season.

that didnt help the "total count"

 

[diggerfoot]

One of the keys to Auriemma's long term success has been his ability to adapt his systems to his players, rather than adapt his players to some ideal system. Remember how often he harped on the need for Moore and Taurasi to get to the line more? This year there was hardly a peep from him over that specific issue directed at his players. By adapting the system to his players he increases their ability to succeed. I only want to see more free throws if it's apparent that's part of the system Auriemma views as maximizing the success of his players.

 

[sarals24]

They mentioned that in the Lousiville game, that this was the first Uconn NC team that had more three-point attempts than free throw attempts.

I would love to see more attack at the basket, but clearly the formula worked this year

I bet Stewie's numbers go up dramatically next year, as she puts on some muscle.

 

[DavidinNaples]

I agree 100% that the results were more than acceptable!! And Geno is the master of adapting game plans to personnel. In the four loses this year, UConn shot fewer free throws by 43-81...Being able to draw fouls would have helped immensely. I believe from his book that Geno loves maximizing free throws because of the 75% success rate and foul trouble it creates for opponents.

 

[Scotter]

I agree 100% that the results were more than acceptable!! And Geno is the master of adapting game plans to personnel. In the four loses this year, UConn shot fewer free throws by 43-81...Being able to draw fouls would have helped immensely. I believe from his book that Geno loves maximizing free throws because of the 75% success rate and foul trouble it creates for opponents.

Geno does recognize the value of getting to the free throw line, but his actions reinforce that is not a huge priority. He has rarely recruited players that naturally get to the free throw line frequently, prioritizing skills like passing and shooting. And in teaching offense he has always focused on getting open shots over creating the situations that tend to lead to free throws.

 

[Waquoit]

This year the team only took 590 [ free throws]. Significant...

Coming back from 4 losses to win the N.C. so impressively makes this analysis moot and a bit silly, but it will be nice to see UConn go back to the old formula next year. Player mismatches (Stewie, Dolson, KML and Tuck) and penetrating guards (Hartley, Jefferson, Banks and maybe Chong) for lots of easy buckets and/or tons of free throws. Go Huskies!

I don't get this analysis at all. Free throws are the most boring part of the game. This team (without all those free throws) just steamrolled through the Big Dance winning by an average of over 34 points. No game was even in a bit a doubt after the 2nd TV timeout. Why would it be "nice" to go back to the old formula? I like the new formula. Free throws are so overrated. The Celtics just went 19-19 from the FT line yesterday, lost.

 

[Icebear]

FTs are often the result of driving the lane but the must important characteristic of FTs is often not the shots from the line but the jeopardy in which you put key players on the opposition. It is one lelement of the game and can be vastly more important in some games than in others.

 

[meyers7]

And in teaching offense he has always focused on getting open shots

Free throws are the most boring part of the game. Free throws are so overrated

I agree, I don't like free throws, they're boring and as irritating as hell when they miss them. However, I understand their importance. Not only are they very "open" shots (they are called "Free" throws for a reason), they also can get the opponent into foul trouble.

It's a tough decision, be bored, but better for the team, or watch flowing offense but not as helpful to the team. I guess as long as they make them when they are available, I'll deal with the number of attempts either way.

 

[DavidinNaples]

"Free throws are so overrated." ?? The Celtics lost because they shot 5-20 from 3 pt line...25%. Overall they shot 41% from the field. Free throws kept them in the game. I agree free throws can be boring, but wouldn't a couple of made free throws in the 3 Notre Dame games have changed the outcome? What you saw in the tournament was the "old formula", ball movement, mismatches (Stewie), penetration (Jefferson and Hartley), great shooting %, smothering defense...AND they shot 50 of 58 from the free throw line in the last 3 games. Go Huskies..

 

[Goodgood]

If you look at Notre Dame, they lived by the free throws. All the time. Every game. In the semi game, they stayed in the game as long as they could because of the free throws. We were lucky that our fouls were well distributed. Just imagine Stewie or KML in foul trouble and the outcome of that game might be different.

 

[Waquoit]

"Free throws are so overrated." ?? The Celtics lost because they shot 5-20 from 3 pt line...25%. Overall they shot 41% from the field. Free throws kept them in the game. I agree free throws can be boring, but wouldn't a couple of madee free throws in the 3 Notre Dame games have changed the outcome?

Nah, I don't think a couple of FT's would have changed the outcome any more than one more made 3 pointer or one less TO would have. Free throws are just easier to point to because the game stops when they are being taken. You lose by a couple and everyone points to FT's missed. It's bogus in a game of runs like hoop. The four losses were less about FT's than the fact that the team wasn't hitting on all cylinders yet. Once they hit their stride they crushed everyone without any noticble increase in free throws. Dom Perno had some great FT shooting teams. Jim Calhoun won the NC with a lousy shooting one.

Your OP said it "it will be nice to see UConn go back". Geno didn't get to be a great coach by going back. Like that Deadspin article said, Geno was the first coach to bring "a style of play more reminiscent of old-timey men's basketball from the '60s and the '70s." That's how UConn came to dominance over Tenn and the others who stressed (and still do) defense and rebounding above all else. Now that others (like ND) have caught up to some extent, the paradigm is shifting and once again Geno is out front.

Sarals brought up the fact that this was the first UConn NC team that had more three-point attempts than free throw attempts. Get used it, that's no accident or coincidence. Three pointers are going to become more and more important. Louisville didn't beat Baylor because of FT's, defense and rebounding or motion offense. They won because they made 3's.
That's the way the men's game is going and now the two best coaches in the women's game are doing the same thing. That open jumper from the top of the key is an easy shot. AND you get a 50% bonus for making it. Geno's old book may say he "loves maximizing free throws". But his new book is still being written.

 

[DavidinNaples]

Good points...love the discussion. Agree 3's are becoming key.... Go Huskies..!

 

[DobbsRover2]

Not really either an issue or mystery with this stat trend. UConn had a huge jump of 101 3-pt FGs last year, and 229 more than two years ago -- and the players shot a very good 37.6%, much better than the previous two years. Perimeter shooters tend to get fouled much less frequently than players trying to score in the paint, and UConn's FT attempts dropped 46 from last year, and 87 from two years ago. This is neither good nor bad, just the coaches recognizing that 3-pt shooting is a weapon that is now much more effective and should be used more to increase the scoring level, which it did last year by about 5.5 ppg, so actually I guess it is a good stat. The drop in FTs is pretty proportional with what you would expect from increased reliance on perimeter shooting, and as long as UConn has the long-range gunners, I'm sure that's how the offense will be set up.

Interestingly, the PF margin remained almost the same over the last two years at a little over 80 in favor of the Huskies, though two years ago the margin was at around 140.

 

[DobbsRover2]

Perhaps the more interesting question here is, did UConn effectively use their 3-pt shooting last year or were they just chucking'em up because they were shooting better but not actually relying on a shot that increased productivity.

This is a little harder problem to analyze simply because the 3-pt shot has a secondary purpose to extend the defense, and the interior game does lead to those extra FTs that should be factored in to some extent with comparisons of inside and outside the perimeter offenses. But just going by crude stats, UConn shot 55.9% of two-point shots and 37.8% on 3-pt shots last year. On the basis of 1000 shots of each type, 16 more points would be scored by the 3-pt shots at those percentages (1118 to 1134). At the least you can say that the 3-pt shooting was probably at least as effective as the 2-pt shots, but again the proclivity for more FTs with the interior game would somewhat offset the perimeter game's advantage.

 

[Waquoit]

To take it to the next level Dobbs, I wonder what percentage of missed 3's are rebounded by the offense comapred to 2-pointers? Has anyone here read such an analysis?

 

[DavidinNaples]

Good stuff you two... waquoit, not sure where to find those rebounding stats, but would be facinating. Dobbs, good insight on interior scoring vs. 3 pt shooting... Went back to Tina Charles last two years. She scored 1,350 points and went 0-1 from 3 pt land. These days the bigs all shoot 3's...Stewie, Tuck, and now Dolson....

 

[Tenspro2002]

To take it to the next level Dobbs, I wonder what percentage of missed 3's are rebounded by the offense comapred to 2-pointers? Has anyone here read such an analysis?

Great question. I'd have to believe 3's lead to a higher percentage of offensive rebounds (but also to fewer easy putbacks).

One lineup of athletic bigs should especially be able to take advantage of that, though the loss of Kelly Faris will hurt -- she was an excellent offensive rebounder.

 

[Buzzyboy]

I don't get this analysis at all. Free throws are the most boring part of the game. This team (without all those free throws) just steamrolled through the Big Dance winning by an average of over 34 points. No game was even in a bit a doubt after the 2nd TV timeout. Why would it be "nice" to go back to the old formula? I like the new formula. Free throws are so overrated. The Celtics just went 19-19 from the FT line yesterday, lost.

Freebies are wonderful. Scoring points without the clock moving is outstanding and the potential to put the better players on the opposing team on the bench with foul trouble is a great thing. What do you think has helped the Notre Dame teams of the past few years to be so successful. It's foul shots and in their successes against UConn, it was them putting our better players on the bench for long periods of time. I wouldn't minimize foul shots in any way!

 

[DobbsRover2]

To take it to the next level Dobbs, I wonder what percentage of missed 3's are rebounded by the offense comapred to 2-pointers? Has anyone here read such an analysis?

To help, the analysis would need to look at probably a few years of Husky rebounding results, and I don't think that has ever been done. Looking in general at say the whole of WCBB may not be completely relevant to UConn as some teams have offensive structures and the personnel to get to long caroms more effectively than other teams, and a team that eats up a lot of retrievals can be just as effective from the perimeter as a team that shoots much better from out there but rarely gets the long bounds.

In the NC, game UConn had 18 misses on 2-pt shots and retrieved ORs on 9 of them, while they also had 13 misses on 3-pt shots and got 4 ORs off of them. One OR was a "team" OR. Not sure if that ratio (50% vs. 22%) is representative of other games, but yes, teams tend to get more ORs on two point plays. One sequence from the NC featured two missed shots with two ORs finished off by a Stewart tip in. Bad news is the team shot 33% on the series, good news is that they got a bucket. Interestingly, in 3 of the 4 cases where an OR was gotten off a 3-pt shot, it quickly led to a successful 2-pt shot.

 

[DobbsRover2]

Freebies are wonderful. Scoring points without the clock moving is outstanding and the potential to put the better players on the opposing team on the bench with foul trouble is a great thing. What do you think has helped the Notre Dame teams of the past few years to be so successful. It's foul shots and in their successes against UConn, it was them putting our better players on the bench for long periods of time. I wouldn't minimize foul shots in any way!

Absolutely, and for some teams FTs are an absolute imperative, and they set their offense up to collect them and put pressure on the other team, especially if there is a thin bench. In years past there were a number of games where UTenn beat UConn simply because they were awarded a huge amount of FTs.

Potential drawbacks to the foul-collecting approach is it usually involves a fair amount of contact and a higher risk of injury especially when playing teams that are going to hammer you as payment, and also that if referees do not feel like calling many fouls in a big game, a foul-collecting team may get a bit disoriented and sulky and have their performance tank a bit. For ND in the semi's though, for 37 minutes the game fit the usual format where ND got their normal (high) amount of FTs and UConn got their normal (low) total, but the Irish just couldn't hit many FGs and the Huskies actually passed them by at the FT line by going 13-13 to end the game when the Irish were in foul mode.

 

[UcMiami]

OK - just checked the media guide - Uconn records for 3pts attempted and made are:
Made: 281 in 2008-9 - ranked #10 at 37.3%
Attempted: 758 in 2011-12 (ranked somewhere below #11 in percentage made.)

And this years numbers blow away the old records:
Made: 325 - ranked #9 at 37.8% an increase of 44 or 15.7%
Attempted: 859 - an increase over the old record of 101 or 13.3%

Considering you get 50% more points for 3 pointers over 2 pointers the team would have had to shoot 57% for 2 pointers to match the points they got from the 3 point shots. They shot 49.6% overall (great) and cutting out the 3pointers they shot 896 of 1601 from two land for 56.0%. That is basically a statistical dead heat. But being efficient from 3 does spread the floor and help the whole offense so within reason (and 33% is I think reasonable) the mixture of 3 and 2 pointers was good.
One problem with shooting a high percentage of three pointers is that it is a defensive disaster to foul a 3 point shooter so it almost never happens, thus cutting down on possible shooting fouls.
Also interesting to note - if your team shoots FTs at 76% and you shoot 2 pointers at 56% and 3 pointers at 38% the difference in scoring is not that great -
2 FT = 1.52 pts., 2 pt attempt = 1.12 pts, 3 pt attempt = 1.14 pts. (rounded Uconn numbers for 2012-13)

Beyond points, there are three advantages to drawing fouls (shooting or not) - 1) Restricting opponent player's availability to play - get two fouls on a player in the first half and you probably do not see them again until the second half, etc. 2) Restrict an opponent player's aggressiveness, and 3) increase your time on offense by resetting the shot clock on non-shooting fouls.

Of course Geno or any coach wants the team to draw more fouls for all the above reasons. But it is a personnel issue as well as a team goal. You do not want CD driving to the basket with her current physical limitations (though she was very effective in doing so before all the injuries mounted up.) I think the youth of the team also restricted some of the aggressiveness - Moriah early was more likely to get into trouble driving in the lane than she was during the NCAA and that came with experience. And Bria being injured (as well as BB) hurt as well - she was less aggressive and less effective driving than in pervious years, and it seemed she was also more likely to be called for charges (a result of having less mobility?) Finally having a center that plays half the time out at the free throw line extended is less likely to draw fouls. Stef is very effective there, but never likely to draw the number of fouls of a Tina who spent more time down low and attempted a higher percentage of shots in the low post.

Just one other note - 1 and 1 FT attempts reduces the points per FT trip (at 76%) from 1.52 to 1.34 pts.

 

[chrissaran]

Tiffany was never the point guard. It was Renee and then Bria. The lack of free throws was so significant that we won the National Championship. If you're going to talk up Tiffany, remember in the semi finals against Notre Dame, she had four points, two coming on a layup in the last minute of the game. It was Maya against Notre Dame and even she couldn't do it by herself. D got more help than Maya did. D's still the greatest, but we'll never know what might have been had one other player stepped up.