Pete Thamel: Is the Big 12 Set for Major Expansion?

[Lock City Husky]

SI's Pete Thamel takes a long look at Big 12 expansion. Mentions UConn came up in a "surprising number of conversations considering its geography, lack of relevant football history and void of local recruiting."

http://www.campusrush.com/big-12-conference-questions-future-expansion-1528668401.html

 

[junglehusky]

First Tramel, now Thamel.

I think UConn's chances would go from negligible to (small but) non-negligible if adding more than 1 eastern school is on the table. If it's only 1, then it's probably Cincy. If it's more than 2 schools total then maybe Cincy+UConn+Temple or a directional florida school could be argued for.

Another thing that would help is if this takes longer than a year to develop. If Boren and the other presidents want to move right away maybe they settle for a Memphis/Houston. My personal hope is that it picks up steam if only to force the ACC and B1G to take a closer look at UConn as well.

 

[NYUConn]

Not saying that I'm booking a flight annually to Austin, but the fact that real Journalists are talking about us and the Big 12 is a much stronger sign then Flug, The Dude and co.

Be interesting to see if the rumblings continue.

 

[FDNY99]

If and I strongly state that it's a HUGE IF the B-12 EVER gets a B-12 Network off the ground and on the air in any shape or form...we jump up VERY high on the list...because just like RU did for the B1G...we would do for the B-12. The only problem with this is that it's a pipe dream now with what's happening in the broadcast world to the likes of Disney/ESPN.

 

[Dooley]

In my humble and mildly persuaded opinion, I think if the B12 were to expand, they need to pick the next best 6 and get to 16. Take the best options away from the ACC and even B1G and beat the ACC to a conference network. Put pressure on the ACC (it's really a race between the B12 and ACC for P4 survival) and if taking away the best eastern options from them forces an eventual collapse, the B12 can add a few schools (Louisville? Miami? NC State? Pitt for Backyard Brawl?) to get to 20 when it does.

Hypothetically, let's say that the B12 added for 2017:

UConn, Cincinnati, Temple, UCF, USF, and Memphis.

B12N angle: UConn brings northeast NYC and Hartford markets for B12N. Temple brings Philly. UCF and USF together are top 15 markets. Memphis brings FedEx dollars and good football/hoops combo. Cincinnati is not a terrible market.

Football: Memphis gives access to TN / Mid-Atlantic recruiting. UCF and USF double down gives twice as exposure into FL recruiting. PA and OH are added for football recruiting. UConn is the weakest add of the group but we more than make up for it elsewhere...all we have to do is remain competitive in football over the years.

Hoops: we obviously bring elite hoops that opens the door into MSG/NYC games. We give Kansas a game each and every year, not to mention bring the biggest name to year-round content. Temple and Cinci hoops are solid and good for fairly regular NCAAT appearances and success. UCF and USF are hot garbage but they are football recruiting and market additions. Memphis is a solid hoops add, even if Squid isn't cheating for them.

Academics: UConn tops the list at #57 followed by a slew of schools all in the 100s, but sport large enrollment numbers and would satisfy the football starved conference members.

Potential Division Alignment:

East - UConn, Cincinnati, Temple, WVU, USF, UCF, Memphis, Iowa State
West - Texas, OU, OSU, TT, KU, KSU, Baylor, TCU

All natural B12 rivalries preserved in the West. Conference Championship Game in JerryWorld every year. Conference hoops tourney rotates between Kansas City (where it is now), NYC, and Dallas.

Then sit back and wait for ACC to fold in 2020-whatever and pick off some of the aftermath. Maybe bring in Houston and/or BYU to supplement an addition of 2 or 3.

If there aren't enough slashes, here you go...

///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

 

[FDNY99]

In my humble and mildly persuaded opinion, I think if the B12 were to expand, they need to pick the next best 6 and get to 16. Take the best options away from the ACC and even B1G and beat the ACC to a conference network. Put pressure on the ACC (it's really a race between the B12 and ACC for P4 survival) and if taking away the best eastern options from them forces an eventual collapse, the B12 can add a few schools (Louisville? Miami? NC State? Pitt for Backyard Brawl?) to get to 20 when it does.

Hypothetically, let's say that the B12 added for 2017:

UConn, Cincinnati, Temple, UCF, USF, and Memphis.

B12N angle: UConn brings northeast NYC and Hartford markets for B12N. Temple brings Philly. UCF and USF together are top 15 markets. Memphis brings FedEx dollars and good football/hoops combo. Cincinnati is not a terrible market.

Football: Memphis gives access to TN / Mid-Atlantic recruiting. UCF and USF double down gives twice as exposure into FL recruiting. PA and OH are added for football recruiting. UConn is the weakest add of the group but we more than make up for it elsewhere...all we have to do is remain competitive in football over the years.

Hoops: we obviously bring elite hoops that opens the door into MSG/NYC games. We give Kansas a game each and every year. Temple and Cinci hoops are solid and good for fairly regular NCAAT appearances and success. UCF and USF are hot garbage but they are football recruiting and market additions. Memphis is a solid hoops add, even if Squid isn't cheating for them.

Academics: UConn tops the list at #57 followed by BYU at 68. The rest of the schools are all in the 100s but sport large enrollment numbers and would satisfy the football starved conference members.

Potential Division Alignment:

East - UConn, Cincinnati, Temple, WVU, USF, UCF, Memphis, Iowa State
West - Texas, OU, OSU, TT, KU, KSU, Baylor, TCU

All natural B12 rivalries preserved in the West. Conference Championship Game in JerryWorld every year. Conference hoops tourney rotates between Kansas City (where it is now), NYC, and Dallas.

Then sit back and wait for ACC to fold in 2020-whatever and pick off some of the aftermath. Maybe bring in Houston and/or BYU to supplement an addition of 2 or 3.

If there aren't enough slashes, here you go...

///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Dooley no way Temple gets in over Houston in that scenario. Same with Memphis over BYU...

 

[Dooley]

Dooley no way Temple gets in over Houston in that scenario. Same with Memphis over BYU...

I don't think any of it will happen. I'm just thinking along the lines of "what would hurt the ACC most?". I see this whole power conference gobbledy as being the B1G, SEC, PAC and a race between the ACC/B12 for a conference network to try to get to the top 4. The B12's best play is leaving the ACC with no plays for 20 years.

 

[Pudge]

We are still talking Conference.

When the differential between the Two (SEC&B1G) and the TWO lesser lights are $55m to $22m per school - PAC 12 is a geographic outlier with middle revenue - then what comes into play?

Every school for itself. BC did there's 15 years ago. Texas & Oklahoma & Kansas ... Then UNC & UVA & FSU & Clemson (maybe others) see the possibilities. The B12 danger is when the Haves feel it's time to cut & run. They are more valued on a Conference network.

Thamel is a dick. And SU & BC has more football potential than UCONN? We can be an Iowa. They never can.

 

[jostar1]

Not saying that I'm booking a flight annually to Austin, but the fact that real Journalists are talking about us and the Big 12 is a much stronger sign then Flug, The Dude and co.

Be interesting to see if the rumblings continue.

Well if you read Flugaur's latest tweets, he says that Oklahoma wants a limited Big 12 Network within the next two months. This would tie in with why two sportswriters are suddenly saying that UConn's name has recently come up.

Of course, 1) who knows if Flugaur really knows anything and 2) he has repeatedly said that UConn is not a candidate for the Big 12. But the timing is curious.

 

[Marty Jackson]

Interesting that Gee is involved. He must also know the Big game plan so he knows things have to move quickly before they take uconn...

 

[Ha Who]

Anyone know if Warde and Susan are going to Texas?

 

[djct1999]

In general, not Big12 specific, if long-term sustainability is a factor, the next two chips to fall will be UConn and BYU. They offer so much more than any of the other schools being mentioned. Adding commuter schools over a flagship university for "football purposes only" would bring the Big12 one step closer to death than health.

 

[jostar1]

A month ago, Holgorsen mentioned UConn:

“I think we need to go get a couple more in this area — whether it’s UConn, Cincinnati, Memphis, Central Florida or South Florida,” said Holgorsen. “I don’t need to be the expert on who, but I think we need to add two.”

 

[pj]

Thamel's article makes it sound like UConn and Cincy is quite likely. BYU would disperse the conference geographically. All the other players, Thamel downplays. If the B12 is to have a chance at long-term survival, it needs to get into large markets.New England/NY and Ohio would work.

 

[UConnTrumbull]

In my humble and mildly persuaded opinion, I think if the B12 were to expand, they need to pick the next best 6 and get to 16. Take the best options away from the ACC and even B1G and beat the ACC to a conference network. Put pressure on the ACC (it's really a race between the B12 and ACC for P4 survival) and if taking away the best eastern options from them forces an eventual collapse, the B12 can add a few schools (Louisville? Miami? NC State? Pitt for Backyard Brawl?) to get to 20 when it does.

Hypothetically, let's say that the B12 added for 2017:

UConn, Cincinnati, Temple, UCF, USF, and Memphis.

B12N angle: UConn brings northeast NYC and Hartford markets for B12N. Temple brings Philly. UCF and USF together are top 15 markets. Memphis brings FedEx dollars and good football/hoops combo. Cincinnati is not a terrible market.

Football: Memphis gives access to TN / Mid-Atlantic recruiting. UCF and USF double down gives twice as exposure into FL recruiting. PA and OH are added for football recruiting. UConn is the weakest add of the group but we more than make up for it elsewhere...all we have to do is remain competitive in football over the years.

Hoops: we obviously bring elite hoops that opens the door into MSG/NYC games. We give Kansas a game each and every year, not to mention bring the biggest name to year-round content. Temple and Cinci hoops are solid and good for fairly regular NCAAT appearances and success. UCF and USF are hot garbage but they are football recruiting and market additions. Memphis is a solid hoops add, even if Squid isn't cheating for them.

Academics: UConn tops the list at #57 followed by a slew of schools all in the 100s, but sport large enrollment numbers and would satisfy the football starved conference members.

Potential Division Alignment:

East - UConn, Cincinnati, Temple, WVU, USF, UCF, Memphis, Iowa State
West - Texas, OU, OSU, TT, KU, KSU, Baylor, TCU

All natural B12 rivalries preserved in the West. Conference Championship Game in JerryWorld every year. Conference hoops tourney rotates between Kansas City (where it is now), NYC, and Dallas.

Then sit back and wait for ACC to fold in 2020-whatever and pick off some of the aftermath. Maybe bring in Houston and/or BYU to supplement an addition of 2 or 3.

If there aren't enough slashes, here you go...

///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

My uconn bias aside, I agree with all of this. Pound for pound, the XII would be sufficiently stronger than the ACC who can really only boast FSU, Clemson and to a lesser extent, Miami. This kind of power play move would force FSUs hand into leaving the ACC after 2027 or whatever it is. No doubt about that.

 

[junglehusky]

I don't think any of it will happen. I'm just thinking along the lines of "what would hurt the ACC most?". I see this whole power conference gobbledy as being the B1G, SEC, PAC and a race between the ACC/B12 for a conference network to try to get to the top 4. The B12's best play is leaving the ACC with no plays for 20 years.

Can Fox (or maybe Comcast/NBC) afford to subsidize "what would hurt the ACC the most"? Would they be motivated to shell out more cash in this environment in order to possibly limit the ceiling of the ACC in the mid-2020s? I have no idea...

 

[Dooley]

Can Fox (or maybe Comcast/NBC) afford to subsidize "what would hurt the ACC the most"? Would they be motivated to shell out more cash in this environment in order to possibly limit the ceiling of the ACC in the mid-2020s? I have no idea...

I don't know either, but FOX people are said to want to get east. UConn is the most logical choice - brings Hartford/New Haven and good exposure into NYC. Adding Temple would allow FOX to double-down in Philly (they already have Nova). Orlando and Tampa are both Top 20 markets. Together, they are a Top 10 area with the added benefit of bringing in some very fertile football recruiting grounds. Cincinnati is a decent market but this is more of a "ACC blow" than anything else. They're solid in football and hoops and would be someone that the ACC would certainly add if ND ever decides to join full-time. Ditto Memphis.

FOX would add exposure in NYC, Hartford/New Haven, Tampa, Orlando, Philadelphia (in football now), Cinci, and Memphis. All east and some behemoth markets included. Some might even say Boston could be included as part of UConn's potential reach...campus is located 1 hour away afterall.

For FOX, I think they are more likely to want to launch a B12N if they can exposure into this many eastern markets. It makes no sense for them to create a B12N if it only covers Texas and tornado alley. But if you add a large eastern segment similar to what I propose, now all of a sudden your conference stretches over the entire country and into some major markets. Best of all, it beats the ACCN launch and takes away all of the top choices from them to expand in the future.

 

[FDNY99]

Frank the Tank:
http://frankthetank.me/tag/uconn-to-the-big-12/

 

[FDNY99]

I don't know either, but FOX people are said to want to get east. UConn is the most logical choice - brings Hartford/New Haven and good exposure into NYC. Adding Temple would allow FOX to double-down in Philly (they already have Nova). Orlando and Tampa are both Top 20 markets. Together, they are a Top 10 area with the added benefit of bringing in some very fertile football recruiting grounds. Cincinnati is a decent market but this is more of a "ACC blow" than anything else. They're solid in football and hoops and would be someone that the ACC would certainly add if ND ever decides to join full-time. Ditto Memphis.

FOX would add exposure in NYC, Hartford/New Haven, Tampa, Orlando, Philadelphia (in football now), Cinci, and Memphis. All east and some behemoth markets included. Some might even say Boston could be included as part of UConn's potential reach...campus is located 1 hour away afterall.

For FOX, I think they are more likely to want to launch a B12N if they can exposure into this many eastern markets. It makes no sense for them to create a B12N if it only covers Texas and tornado alley. But if you add a large eastern segment similar to what I propose, now all of a sudden your conference stretches over the entire country and into some major markets. Best of all, it beats the ACCN launch and takes away all of the top choices from them to expand in the future.

Absolutely no way Temple gets in in CR over Cincy....not a chance.

 

[Dooley]

Absolutely no way Temple gets in in CR over Cincy....not a chance.

I never said that. I would think a 6 school addition makes the most sense for the long-term viability of the B12. Add as many eastern markets as possible. Leave the ACC with nothing. If I had to order the "best available", I would certainly rank Cinci over Temple too. I just like the idea from FOX's perspective to double dip into Philly market.

 

[FDNY99]

I never said that. I would think a 6 school addition makes the most sense for the long-term viability of the B12. Add as many eastern markets as possible. Leave the ACC with nothing. If I had to order the "best available", I would certainly rank Cinci over Temple too. I just like the idea from FOX's perspective to double dip into Philly market.

If they add..they add 2 and that's it. It gives them the CCG to keep pace with the SEC, ACC and B1G and their tv contract with Fox only stays the same to 12. The only way you se UCONN in the B-12 equation is if they can get the B-12N off the ground..and the only way the B-12N happens is if they can convince UT to give up the LHN..which at this point ESPN will most likely run far far away from (especially in light of the downgrade in the rating for their parent company) to cut their loses without a fight. IMHO Temple has hit their ceiling with the AAC.

 

[Dooley]

Frank the Tank:
http://frankthetank.me/tag/uconn-to-the-big-12/

Wow, I fell over when I read the bolded below. It's taken some years, but maybe some people around the country are slowly coming to the realization of just how valuable UConn is to a power conference and a conference network...

"That being said, I’ve also always acknowledged that any school with a great basketball fan base (i.e. UConn, Memphis, San Diego State, New Mexico, etc.) could do wonders for its conference realignment prospects if it could merely be competent in football. (I’d also say the same thing about quality academic schools in attractive locations, as well – see how much Tulane and Rice could be worth if they could string a few winning seasons together.)

Like I’ve said, the threshold question is whether the Big 12 wants to expand at all (as they are awaiting feedback on their proposal to the NCAA to allow for leagues with less than 12 schools to hold a conference championship game). At the same time, Memphis isn’t suddenly a no-brainer addition – there are plenty of open issues, particularly whether its academic reputation would satisfy Texas and if its football success this past year is sustainable. Looking at conference realignment in a vacuum, the two most valuable Group of 5 schools are arguably BYU and UConn, so who knows how the Big 12 views either of those schools. I’ll re-state my firm belief that BYU would be a fantastic fit for the Big 12 both on-the-field and financially, but acknowledge that it’s the most unpredictable school that I’ve seen over the past few years of conference realignment both in terms of its own actions and how the rest of the Big 12 perceives the school. If the Big 12 expands and BYU is somehow passed over, then it would be a clear inverse of the Michael Corleone credo: “It’s not business, it’s just personal”. UConn is in a tough spot because it’s not a very good fit at all for the Big 12 culturally or geographically, yet it still needs to push hard for a place in that league since it doesn’t have any other power conference options forthcoming in the near future. It’s all an interesting set of circumstances right now. The last couple of spots in the Big 12 might be the final power conference additions that the college sports world will see in this generation, so the stakes are massive for those schools that have a viable chance."

 

[Dooley]

If they add..they add 2 and that's it. It gives them the CCG to keep pace with the SEC, ACC and B1G and their tv contract with Fox only stays the same to 12. The only way you se UCONN in the B-12 equation is if they can get the B-12N off the ground..and the only way the B-12N happens is if they can convince UT to give up the LHN..which at this point ESPN will most likely run far far away from (especially in light of the downgrade in the rating for their parent company) to cut their loses without a fight. IMHO Temple has hit their ceiling with the AAC.

Ultimately, I agree with you. I would be shocked if the B12 makes an aggressive add. They have done nothing but follow the Big East's playbook for how to destroy a conference through inaction and over-valuing its own self worth. I'm just sharing my own personal opinion of how I think the B12 could sustain long-term viability as a P4 member (and facilitate the death of the ACC).

 

[FDNY99]

That's why IMHO..if the B-12 gets the B-12N even close to getting off the ground...I think they go to 12 with UCONN and Cincy. The sun, moon and stars all have to align for that to happen though and it is a pipe dream at best.

Wow, I fell over when I read the bolded below. It's taken some years, but maybe some people around the country are slowly coming to the realization of just how valuable UConn is to a power conference and a conference network...

"That being said, I’ve also always acknowledged that any school with a great basketball fan base (i.e. UConn, Memphis, San Diego State, New Mexico, etc.) could do wonders for its conference realignment prospects if it could merely be competent in football. (I’d also say the same thing about quality academic schools in attractive locations, as well – see how much Tulane and Rice could be worth if they could string a few winning seasons together.)

Like I’ve said, the threshold question is whether the Big 12 wants to expand at all (as they are awaiting feedback on their proposal to the NCAA to allow for leagues with less than 12 schools to hold a conference championship game). At the same time, Memphis isn’t suddenly a no-brainer addition – there are plenty of open issues, particularly whether its academic reputation would satisfy Texas and if its football success this past year is sustainable. Looking at conference realignment in a vacuum, the two most valuable Group of 5 schools are arguably BYU and UConn, so who knows how the Big 12 views either of those schools. I’ll re-state my firm belief that BYU would be a fantastic fit for the Big 12 both on-the-field and financially, but acknowledge that it’s the most unpredictable school that I’ve seen over the past few years of conference realignment both in terms of its own actions and how the rest of the Big 12 perceives the school. If the Big 12 expands and BYU is somehow passed over, then it would be a clear inverse of the Michael Corleone credo: “It’s not business, it’s just personal”. UConn is in a tough spot because it’s not a very good fit at all for the Big 12 culturally or geographically, yet it still needs to push hard for a place in that league since it doesn’t have any other power conference options forthcoming in the near future. It’s all an interesting set of circumstances right now. The last couple of spots in the Big 12 might be the final power conference additions that the college sports world will see in this generation, so the stakes are massive for those schools that have a viable chance."

 

[FDNY99]

Ultimately, I agree with you. I would be shocked if the B12 makes an aggressive add. They have done nothing but follow the Big East's playbook for how to destroy a conference through inaction and over-valuing its own self worth. I'm just sharing my own personal opinion of how I think the B12 could sustain long-term viability as a P4 member (and facilitate the death of the ACC).

Basically UT is in position to save or destroy the B-12. If they negotiate a out with ESPN and turn the lights out on the LHN which allows the B-12 and Fox to start a B-12 Network the B-12 stays together and is strong..even a partnership. They stay the course...OU is gone to the SEC.