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Pairwise

Now that our season is over, I am going to once more complain about selection of the NCAA teams by a math problem. I think the pairwise is a fine metric and should be a consideration but not the only one for tournament selection. It is just a gussied up transitive property is sports which misses lots of nuances. There are 16 slots. 5 or is it 6 are awarded to league tournament champs. When there were only a few slots it made sense maybe but with 10 it is time to stop pretending that the best teams get there through solving a math problem. The NCAA Frozen Four is a 1,2,3,and4 seed. That suggests that the magic formula did a pretty random job of ranking team.
No it doesn't. It suggests that one game hockey is more likely to provide an upset than one game in basketball or football. Which, because of the outsized effect of a goalie having a good game, should surprise absolutely no one.
 
There is a big difference. Professional leagues play a lot more games with a lot of interlocking scheduling. In college sports there are many more teams and a lot fewer games with much less interlocking of schedules. Also some conferences are historically strong, others not so much. And pros can afford a lot more travel because of all the revenue and time spent exclusively on that sport.
I think you can still have a strength of schedule element while still scoring on a WLT format.
 
You know what the most sophisticated way to rank teams is? W-L-T. Everything else is an attempt to find distinctions where there are no differences and differences where there are no distinctions. It’s why exactly zero professional leagues use these ginned up formulas for post season access.
Do you really want to compare Bentley’s W-L-T with BC’s, Western Michigan’s, Quinnipiac’s or Denver’s……let alone UConn’s, Maine’s, BU’s, Cornell’s, Ohio State’s, Michigan State’s, etc?
 
Seems to me Pairwise got it right. The team the new system left out went to the frozen four and looked pretty good doing it. This wasn't just a hot goaltending performance.

I watched ASU in their tournament and wasn't nearly as impressed.

Why change something that everyone seems happy with? Because the women use it? That seems backwards as women's hockey isn't close to a fully developed field of teams. There are barely any women's teams. 44 compared to 64 and there isn't the level of junior hockey leagues to compete with.
 
UConn was down 4-3 against a highly rated team. Final score 6-3 after two empty netters. I know in basketball sometimes coaches will call off fouling so final score looks better even though they still technically have a chance to come back if the cards fell the right way. In hockey, does anyone know the pairwise risk/reward of coming back vs losing 5-3 / 6-3? Does this loss look really bad now vs not so bad?

Thanks.
Pairwise does not use margin of victory or loss for the simple reason that if a team is behind by one goal half way thru the third, the team behind has to open up the style of play to score. That sometimes results in tying it up. More often falling further behind. Which results in further wide open play often with the same result. Sometimes not though. It is very entertaining and we do not want that to stop. And what we DON'T want is for coaches to play for losses but by the smallest margin to limit the damage to their metric.
 
You know what the most sophisticated way to rank teams is? W-L-T. Everything else is an attempt to find distinctions where there are no differences and differences where there are no distinctions. It’s why exactly zero professional leagues use these ginned up formulas for post season access.
There is also a reason that professional leagues only use W-L-T. In theory they are all on an equal playing field. In college athletics that is not the case. The level of competition in B1G, NCHC, Hockey East, ECAC, Atlantic Hockey are not equal. Just like College football, SEC and B1G are a step above everyone else.
 
Pairwise does not use margin of victory or loss for the simple reason that if a team is behind by one goal half way thru the third, the team behind has to open up the style of play to score. That sometimes results in tying it up. More often falling further behind. Which results in further wide open play often with the same result. Sometimes not though. It is very entertaining and we do not want that to stop. And what we DON'T want is for coaches to play for losses but by the smallest margin to limit the damage to their metric.
Bullseye. Of course, one could make the same argument about metrics for college football and hoops. That there is no purpose in measuring how much you win or lose by as winning or losing are the only results that matter. Ranking teams based on margin of victory is much different than weighting results for strength of schedule, which in comparing teams from different college conferences who don't play similar schedules you have to do if you want fair results.
 
Bullseye. Of course, one could make the same argument about metrics for college football and hoops. That there is no purpose in measuring how much you win or lose by as winning or losing are the only results that matter. Ranking teams based on margin of victory is much different than weighting results for strength of schedule, which in comparing teams from different college conferences who don't play similar schedules you have to do if you want fair results.

It could work in hockey if you don't count empty net goals, but there is really no reason to change it. It works fine. HE had that many bids because their teams performed in and out of the league.

UConn's earned it's number and climbed a good amount by beating really good teams, on the road. That's how it's supposed to work. If anything UConn was penalized for some of the points they dropped in games they should have one but ended up in OT or shootouts.
 

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