Paige's Future

[JoePgh]

I get a flood of emails from The Next covering every possible aspect of WBB, both college and pro. Among these emails was one discussing what the incentives are in the spring of 2025 both for Paige and for the teams that might draft her.

Most discussion up to this point has been whether Paige wants to go to Dallas, which has the #1 pick in April, and whether she might sit out the draft (perhaps return to UConn, perhaps play in Unrivaled, perhaps go overseas) to avoid playing in Dallas and for the Wings.

But there is another factor to consider here, which is the new WNBA TV contract which begins in 2026 and which at least triples the TV revenue flowing to the WNBA and its teams. Also in 2026, there will be a new labor agreement between the league and its players, which is expected to provide quantum leaps in salaries and team salary caps.

Because of this, according to the article, few if any WNBA veterans are signing player contracts that extend beyond 2025. However, even in 2025, WNBA rookies will be required to accept 4-year contracts under the current labor agreement, which means that for three years (2026-28), rookies will be playing at salaries which are well below the market value which is expected to prevail in those years.

Obviously, that creates a powerful additional incentive for Paige not to enter the draft this spring. By delaying her WNBA debut to 2026, she can get in under the new TV and labor agreements, and probably earn a whole lot more in salary income (never mind NIL) than she could under Years 2-4 of any contract that she signs this year.

On the other hand, these same financial factors create an enormous incentive for any WNBA team to draft her in 2025 if she makes herself available, because of the discount they will receive on her services in the years 2026-28. So if there is some way that they incentivize her to sign this year (maybe some extra effort by the team to get her some lucrative NIL deals), they will probably want to try to do that.

Since Paige doesn't seem to be a particularly materialistic person, and since she will have substantial NIL income as long as she stays in the public eye playing basketball, maybe she will be impatient to get to the pro level and won't mind the financial penalty. But I have to wonder if the TV and labor contract situation might convince her (or her financial advisors) that the financially sensible thing for her to do is to decline to play in the WNBA this summer.

Just thought I would point this out, in case it escaped your attention. It escaped my attention until I read the article from The Next.

 

[oldude]

Others have mentioned this issue. Obviously, the money will jump in 2026 for all players, including rookies. The rookies that sign this year are essentially locked in to the old collective bargaining agreement through 4 seasons.

 

[hoopsfan22]

Paige is 23 going on 24. Like how long is she supposed to stay a "student"-athlete?

 

[oldude]

Paige is 23 going on 24. Like how long is she supposed to stay a "student"-athlete?

Well, if you ask Geno he would probably answer, “As long as she wants to.”

 

[msf22b]

Without taking into account Joe's powerful arguments,
I never thought Paige would settle for Dallas.

And she might well not be the only potential WNBA rookie
to pass on this season's draft...

4 seasons of Serfdom is the fate of this season's rookies..

Unless the W sees the folly of its ways and modifies its current agreement.
Which they may be forced to do

The draft TV show, may be really interesting entertainment with the first 5 or 6 picks; lovely young woman in gowns or unkempt in jeans and sweaters declining the teams that pick them.

What a hoot that would be

 

[hoopsfan22]

Well, if you ask Geno he would probably answer, “As long as she wants to.”

I'd love if Paige and Azzi came back next year, but it seems unlikely.

 

[Huskee11]

The players opted out of the collective bargaining agreement that was set to expire in 2027. It will still be in effect for the 2025 season but it will be renegotiated after that season ends.

The issue discussed here will need to be addressed since it impacts players like Clark and Reese as well. But there is no certainty as to how it will all get resolved. It might end up being more money but with the four year feature (three plus team option) still in place. By way of comparison, the NBA has two years guaranteed for first rounders with team options for years three and four.

Seattle now has the number two pick and I am rooting for a resolution that reunites the "twins", the slime sisters. If she somehow ends up with the Sun or the Lynx, that would be fine too.

I see that Satou Sabally demanded to be traded from Dallas, and got her wish/demand - was traded today to Phoenix. I am sure Paige and her advisors read about that with interest.

I don't see her returning to UConn but it is nice that she has that as a bargaining chip to hopefully force Dallas' hand.

 

[BobbyJ]

One of the aims of the Unrivaled is to raise awareness of the pay gap between WNBA and NBA players. The starting salary of the first 4 picks of the draft is $76K on a 4 year contract with small raises and only guaranteed for 2 years. Plus the TEAM has the option to keep her for the full 4 years. With Bueckers' injury history and the WNBA's increasingly physical play, I would advise her to further raise that awareness by passing on this '25 draft. In her financial situation I wouldn't risk her legs for that chump change and be locked in for the 4. I'd have her take a break from this season, train this summer with pro trainers to build much more core and leg strength, and then take the average $200K and play next winter with Unrivaled avoiding the WNBA scrums until the new salaries kick in. Make the business decision to get well paid for the pounding because that career can end fast. And I think she could thrive in that fast, wide open Unrivaled game.

 

[sun]

I asked Google: Is Dallas a good WNBA market
The Google AI result stated:
According to recent reports, Dallas is increasingly considered a good WNBA market, with the Dallas Wings seeing significant growth in attendance and valuation, largely due to recent investments and the potential addition of star player Paige Bueckers in the upcoming draft; the team is even considered to be the most valuable WNBA franchise currently.

Paige may not be materialistic, but I'd think that her advisors & NIL sponsors exert some amount of influence on her.
After all, she has shoes to sell that affects her brand & net worth that are linked to her career.
Everyone has some chains that restricts their freedoms.
I'm sure tha she'll deal with her circumstances in a professional way that doesn't offend any of her potential fans, the WNBA & potential employers.
She can't afford to make too many waves without affecting her popularity & future career aspirations among one group or another.
She wouldn't want to be the equivalent of a persona non grata (unwelcomed person) with any group that's she's trying to woe as customers & fans.
If she wants to be an ambassador for the game she needs to play ball & toe the line.

 

[Charliebball]

Paige is 23 going on 24. Like how long is she supposed to stay a "student"-athlete?

how about one more year.............

 

[packwrap]

Paige is 23 going on 24. Like how long is she supposed to stay a "student"-athlete?

LSU just signed a 29 yr old Kenyan freshman track runner. Plenty of elderly ncaa athletes.

Couple thoughts. Even in a new agreement the concept of lower rookie wages in first 4?years of contract will not be going away. This is a fundamental part of all pro leagues that helps parity and cost control.

Salaries all over the W will go up dramatically now due the recent surge in TV viewership. Suddenly, the women's ncaa / tourney and WNBA become very attractive leagues in their own right, not a required investment in women's sports. For years NBA subsidized the W. That will no longer be needed.

Clark/Reese/Paige - Clark earned about $80,000 from the Fever this year, but signed a $28million agreement with Nike! The high profile players that have contracts with Nike, Reebok, State Farm, Gatorade, Mazda, Rolex, McDonalds etc are not happy to earn so little for playing, but they are not complaining about their sponsor money.

Paige already has a shoe! She will sign a similar deal with Nike, as soon as she moves to W. Whether she makes $80000 in her rookie year, or $240000 in a new deal will still be a rounding error compared to her sponsor deals, so has less impact on her Dallas decision than one might think.

Lastly, W player salaries may indeed triple, but it will still take more years of growth for W salaries to match NBA. TV contracts and ticket sales are still not at NBA level. Who knows maybe before Paige and CC retire, they can be signing $50 million super max contracts like LeBron and Stef.

 

[itsasport]

Considering the above, would Azzi decide to stay another year, and could Aubrey stay also?

 

[sun]

Dallas - Fort Worth is now the 4th largest media market in the US..
It's a growing media market.

Top TV markets: Dallas passes Philly; D.C. overtakes Boston​

9.30.2024

The latest media market rankings are out, and among the biggest changes are Dallas-Fort Worth overtaking Philadelphia as the No. 4 market.....
....Down in Texas, it was the Metroplex’s gain of over 134,000 TV homes that boosted it into fourth place over Philly, which lost almost 31,000 TV homes and sits at No. 5 overall.

Top TV markets: Dallas passes Philly; D.C. overtakes Boston

www.sportsbusinessjournal.com

 

[DrummerDee]

Considering the above, would Azzi decide to stay another year, and could Aubrey stay also?

Aubrey cannot stay another year.

 

[Cuango]

Paige is 23 going on 24. Like how long is she supposed to stay a "student"-athlete?

I keep hearing this argument against her staying another year at UConn yet in terms of games played, she has only played in 104 or so. Given that UConn normally plays around 38 games per season, that is less than three seasons.

Now, the argument is, (as I understand it) that she should want to get on with her career and/or she should be embarrassed to be playing against 18-19 year olds. Well, she is making far more $ now, at UConn than she would make in the W, the rookie salary is likely to double, or even triple if she waits one more year, and if, if she really does have a problem with playing in Dallas, she could solve both of those last two issues by simply staying another year. She would only be stronger and more prepared physically, and could finish out a full four seasons worth of her College career. It would also allow her to play another season with Azzi.

Would she be criticised? Of course, but who cares? Those whiners didn’t suffer through two knee injuries and the subsequent rehab that went along with it! I don’t have any idea what she might do but I certainly would not criticize her if she did choose to stay! It is a decision that she would have to make, along with Geno.

It is possible there could be a roster issue, I suppose, but perhaps she could pay her own tuition and play as a walk on? Could she get injured? Sure, but I’m guessing she has a greater chance of injury in the W than here at UConn! Anyway, I wish her the best whatever she chooses to do!

 

[Stagnant]

oh great. Not another one of these threads. There is just nothing substantial to indicate that Paige won’t go to Dallas. And she 100% should not be coming back to UConn. Based on how she has played lately; I can make a strong argument that she stayed in college a year too long.

 

[cferraro04]

Very interesting thread here. I think that Paige may be thinking that it is her time. However, she has smart people around her, and with the NIL that she has, with the current state of the "W", Paige thinking long term (9-12 years out), I wouldn't be surprised if Paige opts out and uses her last year of eligibility.

If Aubrey and Azzi are thinking next level I don't think it is prudent for them to declare at the end of this season. Both Aubrey and Azzi due to their injuries have not been able to showcase what they bring to the table in the way that they would be optimally marketable. Azzi is a talent that should place her high up in the WNBA Draft (top 5). Unfortunately, for Azzi her injuries have made it difficult for her to make the case Does she have enough time in this season to increase the value of her stock? I think the answer is yes, but another year (assuming the injury bug doesn't come back) would position her very high in that year's draft.

I think the same is true for Aubrey but even more so...she is just getting back into playing shape. Aubrey is a rare combination of athletic ability who can defend and score but she is a long way off from being able to prove that she is back. I believe that both Azzi and Aubrey will benefit by staying another season. As far as Paige goes...yeah she is ready now and her Pro career will probably be off the charts but is Dallas the right place for her, can she afford to wait? What are the pluses of her waiting a year? What are the negatives? I think an argument could be made for her to go at the end of this season but, I also think the argument is equally as strong for her to stay. We will have to wait and see.

 

[Blakeon18]

Did not Azzi say a few weeks ago that she was considering returning to UConn for one more year.
Nothing definite....just considering it.

 

[temery]

Considering the above, would Azzi decide to stay another year, and could Aubrey stay also?

Every player is assumed to be returning until they say otherwise or their eligibility is up. Please, no speculation.

 

[Geew1992]

Aubrey no time left. And even if she did, this is her 6th year. Why would she stay!?

Also…. Paige herself has said this is her last year.