Paige slips to 3rd in draft projections

[TheFarmFan]

In terms of talent, this draft has a ton of it ... but only if players do not use the extra COVID year.

For Los Angeles, Nneka Ogwumike is an unrestricted free agent (and cannot be cored). Chiney Ogwumike is an unrestricted free agent (with a litany of injuries). Katie Lou Samuelson is an unrestricted free agent. And so are Jasmine Thomas, Jordin Canada, and Layshia Clarendon (all UFAs).

If Nneka leaves (and Chiney retires to focus on broadcasting), is a frontcourt of Stevens/Hamby that of a playoff team or a lottery one? This is why Brink might be needed.

I would expect LA to re-sign Canada (turns 29 in August 2024) after her breakout season. Bueckers would add elite playmaking, off-ball scoring, one of the best midrange shot creators since Seimone Augustus, and cache as one of the faces of WCBB.

Both players fit, for different reasons -- and both players would fit with the Phoenix Mercury, as well (especially if Phoenix can dump Brianna Turner's final year).

Also, in terms of offseason finances, the Sparks can give close-to-the-max deals to both Canada and Nneka, with enough left over to do so for a free agent (though the FA market dwindled at the end of last season, with Kahleah Copper, Betnijah Laney, and Jewell Loyd signing extensions to remain with their respective current teams).

Great additional analysis - thanks!! And I'd be shocked if both Nneka and Chiney don't re-sign at below what they could command elsewhere. They love LA and Chiney's second act will almost certainly be LA-based, since it's practically her Day Job already...

And yeah if they core Canada and add Bueckers, I'd be a happy camper. Though I'd also love to have Brink someplace where I can occasionally catch home games. =)

 

[oldude]

Brink is as big a star as Beckers is, and she's already in Cali

Maybe in CA. But certainly not on a national basis. I don’t know if you’ve ever been to a game that Paige played in, but there is something that happens right after the end of the game that’s absolutely wonderful. Paige and some of her teammates go into the crowd to sign autographs and take selfies with 100’s of young girls. I was at a game at the XL Center where their was a bus load of young girls who came all the way from Rochester, NY just to see Paige.

So if Paige ends up in LA, it’s not necessarily the diehard west coast sports fan that will show up at the games. More likely it will be thousands of young girls and their parents.

 

[Dillon77]

To me the over under here is injury prevention. If Paige goes deep with the Huskies in the tournament, she'll have to turn around and report to training camp within three weeks. Then a long W season until September/October. That's something like 80 games with no more than 20ish days off on a knee that's barely just back to normal.

Is this idea too crazy: she opts out of her first season in the W, rests up, plays a bit overseas, and comes back fresh in 2025. Basically, she's too much a unicorn player that I'd rather her sit out a whole season than risk one more knee blowout.

Interesting thought on Paige giving herself something of a sabbatical. With her current NIL earnings (many of which will translate into endorsements at the pro level), she can -- unlike many of her peers -- afford to do so.
I'm not sure what kind of "playing a bit" can be arranged with international clubs, but the Aussie Pro League syncs up well with the WNBA. Generally only one game a week and played during the Aussie summer: many UConn and ND pro players have spent a season there and enjoyed it. Not the money that Euro leagues have, but, once again that's not the priority for this particular case.

Opening up the lens, I think that 48-hour window after the NCAA final is going to be very interesting. With quite a few players having options, it will force many of these lottery teams to build multiple contingency plans.

 

[Dillon77]

In terms of talent, this draft has a ton of it ... but only if players do not use the extra COVID year.

For Los Angeles, Nneka Ogwumike is an unrestricted free agent (and cannot be cored). Chiney Ogwumike is an unrestricted free agent (with a litany of injuries). Katie Lou Samuelson is an unrestricted free agent. And so are Jasmine Thomas, Jordin Canada, and Layshia Clarendon (all UFAs).

If Nneka leaves (and Chiney retires to focus on broadcasting), is a frontcourt of Stevens/Hamby that of a playoff team or a lottery one? This is why Brink might be needed.

I would expect LA to re-sign Canada (turns 29 in August 2024) after her breakout season. Bueckers would add elite playmaking, off-ball scoring, one of the best midrange shot creators since Seimone Augustus, and cache as one of the faces of WCBB.

Both players fit, for different reasons -- and both players would fit with the Phoenix Mercury, as well (especially if Phoenix can dump Brianna Turner's final year).

Also, in terms of offseason finances, the Sparks can give close-to-the-max deals to both Canada and Nneka, with enough left over to do so for a free agent (though the FA market dwindled at the end of last season, with Kahleah Copper, Betnijah Laney, and Jewell Loyd signing extensions to remain with their respective current teams).

Good job on examining the financial status of LA (and Phoenix). I'd done the same with the post-season HerHoopStats that Richard Cohen assiduously puts together. BTW, as @TheFarmFan notes, there are year-round discussions taking place on the General Board on the W. Come on over from time to time...we don't bite. (Although I do understand that this one eminates from Paige).

Anyways, CC, I have one more thought regarding LA's pick and Paige: a trade.

• Specifically, a trade to Minnesota, who would love to have Paige there. The price would have to be steep on top of Minny's #7 -- how about Diamond Miller to play the three? If need be, add in jack-of-all-trades Jess Shepard.
• LA could resign Nneka and Canada, still has Hamby/Stevens and adds an athletic wing who can score at two levels (and will get better, a la Jackie Young) and get a shooter at #7.

 

[JoePgh]

Interesting thought on Paige giving herself something of a sabbatical. With her current NIL earnings (many of which will translate into endorsements at the pro level), she can -- unlike many of her peers -- afford to do so.
I'm not sure what kind of "playing a bit" can be arranged with international clubs, but the Aussie Pro League syncs up well with the WNBA. Generally only one game a week and played during the Aussie summer: many UConn and ND pro players have spent a season there and enjoyed it. Not the money that Euro leagues have, but, once again that's not the priority for this particular case.

Opening up the lens, I think that 48-hour window after the NCAA final is going to be very interesting. With quite a few players having options, it will force many of these lottery teams to build multiple contingency plans.

Another option for Paige would be to return to UConn for 2024-25 to play with Azzi, Jana, Allie, Morgan, and perhaps Ayanna and/or Caroline (which would give her the summer of 2024 free of grinding competition), and then enter the draft. She could perhaps take the 2025 WNBA season off if it were necessary or prudent.

 

[Dillon77]

Another option for Paige would be to return to UConn for 2024-25 to play with Azzi, Jana, Allie, Morgan, and perhaps Ayanna and/or Caroline (which would give her the summer of 2024 free of grinding competition), and then enter the draft. She could perhaps take the 2025 WNBA season off if it were necessary or prudent.

I can see that, too. She's got options. More than anything else, I just wish her good health. She's such a great talent, one wants to see PB on her stage as much as possible under right and tight circumstances.

 

[Bone Dog]

Another option for Paige would be to return to UConn for 2024-25 to play with Azzi, Jana, Allie, Morgan, and perhaps Ayanna and/or Caroline (which would give her the summer of 2024 free of grinding competition), and then enter the draft. She could perhaps take the 2025 WNBA season off if it were necessary or prudent.

I like this vision of the future. And don’t forget Ice KK Ashlynn and Qadence. It would be almost an entirely new team for her to take to the NC, since she’s barely had a chance to play next to Azzi and Caroline.

 

[oldude]

You can make compelling arguments for Paige to go pro at the end of the season or to return to UConn for another season. While money is always a consideration, as far as Paige is concerned, I think it will come down to what’s in her heart and how she feels physically. Assuming that UConn falls short of a national championship this season (Yes I said that), the opportunity to return next year for one more go at it along with her good friend Azzi can’t be underestimated.

 

[SEbluebood]

You can make compelling arguments for Paige to go pro at the end of the season or to return to UConn for another season. While money is always a consideration, as far as Paige is concerned, I think it will come down to what’s in her heart and how she feels physically. Assuming that UConn falls short of a national championship this season (Yes I said that), the opportunity to return next year for one more go at it along with her good friend Azzi can’t be underestimated.

Delaying her pro career for another year on the hope that both she and her friend will stay healthy and pursue a championship seems like betting against the odds, but I guess anything is possible.

 

[Bald Husky]

Draft speculation means nothing, unless the media types own a WNBA franchise. The teams pick, not the media. All speculation is just B------T, and just a way to get a controversial conversation going among fans.

 

[ThisJustIn]

From MV: Stanford's Cameron Brink knows she has a foul problem -- and she's working on it
From the moment she stepped on court as a Stanford freshman in 2020, Cameron Brink looked like a can't-miss star. Two years, two Final Four appearances and one national championship later, that seems all the more certain -- for the rest of her Cardinal career and beyond in the WNBA.

Just one thing has slowed her down: the official's whistle.

 

[BB Dawg]

Paige will be a huge draw of fans, media & money. And so will CC. However, Brink is a west coast girl and LA may lean that way. Nonetheless, I see Paige staying put next year.

 

[Bone Dog]

I’m pretty sure Brink’s fouling problem will not affect her draft position. What is likely to affect it is how well Cardoso plays this season. Cameron is quicker, has good offensive skills and is an excellent defender, but Kamila is really built for the W. It really comes down to whether this or that team needs a 4 or a 5.

 

[Zinethar]

I wonder if the upcoming Olympics will enter into players thoughts of staying in college or joining the draft. I wonder how many WNBA players will be with their national teams next year. Paige, Brink, and Caitlin were all teammates on a USA basketball team and I'd expect they would want to try out for the National team. Just wanted to toss that into the fire.

 

[Mallow]

Paige will not be drafted because she very likely will stay at Uconn. She'll want at least another year with Azzi and a chance at an NC. They could win this year but they will need the luck of the draw and their freshman to stay on the same trajectory they appear to be on now. In any event UConn could really be loaded next year and Paige at the end of the day is hunting a NC.

 

[Alydar]

All the top players have the leverage to have a say in where they play. I'm thinking that the draft order and the draft itself are in part predetermined in order to promote the league as a whole rather than each franchise acting in it's own best interest. They hold the draft lottery behind closed doors for a reason.

 

[hoopsfan22]

Paige will not be drafted because she very likely will stay at Uconn. She'll want at least another year with Azzi and a chance at an NC. They could win this year but they will need the luck of the draw and their freshman to stay on the same trajectory they appear to be on now. In any event UConn could really be loaded next year and Paige at the end of the day is hunting a NC.

Paige has chosen a career that has an expiration date. Coming back next year means shaving 5-10% off of that professional career. While that may seem like a small amount, it's not nothing either especially taking into account her injury history.

 

[oldude]

Delaying her pro career for another year on the hope that both she and her friend will stay healthy and pursue a championship seems like betting against the odds, but I guess anything is possible.

If Paige wasn’t pulling down an estimated 7 figure income in NIL, I would agree with you.

 

[SEbluebood]

If Paige wasn’t pulling down an estimated 7 figure income in NIL, I would agree with you.

PB’s off the court income will thrive whether in college or pros. I wonder if she knows in her own mind yet what she wants to do. The speculation and guessing will keep keep many UConn fans on edge. The good news is that she wins with either decision!

 

[Bald Husky]

Paige will not be drafted because she very likely will stay at Uconn. She'll want at least another year with Azzi and a chance at an NC. They could win this year but they will need the luck of the draw and their freshman to stay on the same trajectory they appear to be on now. In any event UConn could really be loaded next year and Paige at the end of the day is hunting a NC.

Paige has 2 more years of eligibility after this year. Actually, Azzi also has 2 more years since she should be able to get a redshirt for this year. So technically, they could play 2 more years together. Don't get your hopes up though, I don't think that will happen, so let's just be happy if they get 1 more year together.

 

[bballnut90]

I posted this on the general board but I just don't see LA passing up on Brink if she's available at 2. She's a perfect PF prototype for the league and checks every box. Brink is a sure fire prospect and her game is 100% pro ready, more so than Bueckers. There aren't many 6-4 players who can affect the game on both ends like she does.

If Paige had no injury issues she'd probably be ahead of Brink, but she's been injury prone and is still shaking off some rust. At this point I think she's more likely to return to college since she hasn't had a normal year in her career (shortened covid season, injured most of 2021-22, out with ACL 2022-23, several teammates out in 2023-24). My guess is that most of the other likely high picks declare (Clark, Brink, Cardoso, Edwards, Reese) but Bueckers comes back for a 5th season. The others have all had their moment in the sun where Paige's career just doesn't seem complete considering all of the obstacles over the last 4 years. Just a gut feeling. If she stays another year, I think she'll very likely go #1 overall in 2025 when the draft depth isn't quite as strong. If my prediction holds true and Indiana pulls a Vegas and lands 3 straight #1 picks, a roster of Clark/Bueckers/Nalyssa Smith/Boston would be insane.

 

[Surly1]

I posted this on the general board but I just don't see LA passing up on Brink if she's available at 2. She's a perfect PF prototype for the league and checks every box. Brink is a sure fire prospect and her game is 100% pro ready, more so than Bueckers. There aren't many 6-4 players who can affect the game on both ends like she does.

If Paige had no injury issues she'd probably be ahead of Brink, but she's been injury prone and is still shaking off some rust. At this point I think she's more likely to return to college since she hasn't had a normal year in her career (shortened covid season, injured most of 2021-22, out with ACL 2022-23, several teammates out in 2023-24). My guess is that most of the other likely high picks declare (Clark, Brink, Cardoso, Edwards, Reese) but Bueckers comes back for a 5th season. The others have all had their moment in the sun where Paige's career just doesn't seem complete considering all of the obstacles over the last 4 years. Just a gut feeling. If she stays another year, I think she'll very likely go #1 overall in 2025 when the draft depth isn't quite as strong. If my prediction holds true and Indiana pulls a Vegas and lands 3 straight #1 picks, a roster of Clark/Bueckers/Nalyssa Smith/Boston would be insane.

I agree with mostly everything you stated, with the exception that Cam Brink is more pro ready than Paige. Brink is definitely pro ready and I think her upside potential might be the highest of all as she is adding dimension to her game, particularly her outside shot. While Paige might be a question mark as to the physicality of the WNBA game, her game translates to any forum. There's literally nothing that she can't do on a basketball court.

As you pointed out, the other players have basically accomplished everything in their collegiate careers. While Clark has not won a NC, I don't think it's a likelihood this year either. She will have set a new NCAA scoring record, and if she stays, won't have Gabby Marshall or Kate Martin as teammates. Plus, it's hard to pass up being the #1 pick in the draft.

SC & UCLA are the frontrunners for the NC. If Cardoso wins, there's never a better time to go out on top. The same could apply to Angel Reese. It might behoove her to escape the media circus that comes playing for Kim Mulkey & LSU.

Selfishly, I would love to see Paige play another season at UConn. As Geno mentioned in an interview, Paige is basically still in her sophomore season when you consider the number of games she has played. She came to UConn to leave her imprint alongside the other greats of the program. Is she willing to depart not having won a title? I imagine that is one of many factors in her decision. UConn's chances this year have taken a hit, but what if they come close again but miss out? Would that impel her to give it one more try with a healthy & fully loaded roster? Time will tell.

Nine games into the season, Paige appears to be holding up well. However, if she opted for the draft, she's exposing herself to the rigors of potentially 80 games or more in a year's time period. That's a lot for any player, let alone one with a checkered health history and coming back from a serious injury. From a physical standpoint, as well as a nod to a long, healthy career, I feel she would be better served by returning and using the college offseason to recover and get physically stronger for the more demanding WNBA.

In 2025, teams would in scramble trying to land her as the number 1 pick.

 

[Bone Dog]

Paige is a bit of a unicorn: the potential GOAT who has barely had a chance to play. She needs to make all of her potential into a reality. I want to see this more than anything. Geno assembled a team to showcase her awesome talent and malign fortune pulled it out from under her. I don't see her leaving with so much unfinished business. Unless... of course, she manages to engineer an NC with this most unlikely of squads.

 

[MilfordHusky]

This draft could be like the “Three to See” draft, with Griner, Delle Donne, and Diggins-Smith. The #1 pick won a championship. The #2 pick won a championship and 2 MVP awards. The #3 pick was 1st Team All-WNBA. I’m thinking at least 1 of the new trio will win an MVP award, after Stewie and Wilson get older.

 

[bballnut90]

I agree with mostly everything you stated, with the exception that Cam Brink is more pro ready than Paige. Brink is definitely pro ready and I think her upside potential might be the highest of all as she is adding dimension to her game, particularly her outside shot. While Paige might be a question mark as to the physicality of the WNBA game, her game translates to any forum. There's literally nothing that she can't do on a basketball court.

As you pointed out, the other players have basically accomplished everything in their collegiate careers. While Clark has not won a NC, I don't think it's a likelihood this year either. She will have set a new NCAA scoring record, and if she stays, won't have Gabby Marshall or Kate Martin as teammates. Plus, it's hard to pass up being the #1 pick in the draft.

SC & UCLA are the frontrunners for the NC. If Cardoso wins, there's never a better time to go out on top. The same could apply to Angel Reese. It might behoove her to escape the media circus that comes playing for Kim Mulkey & LSU.

Selfishly, I would love to see Paige play another season at UConn. As Geno mentioned in an interview, Paige is basically still in her sophomore season when you consider the number of games she has played. She came to UConn to leave her imprint alongside the other greats of the program. Is she willing to depart not having won a title? I imagine that is one of many factors in her decision. UConn's chances this year have taken a hit, but what if they come close again but miss out? Would that impel her to give it one more try with a healthy & fully loaded roster? Time will tell.

Nine games into the season, Paige appears to be holding up well. However, if she opted for the draft, she's exposing herself to the rigors of potentially 80 games or more in a year's time period. That's a lot for any player, let alone one with a checkered health history and coming back from a serious injury. From a physical standpoint, as well as a nod to a long, healthy career, I feel she would be better served by returning and using the college offseason to recover and get physically stronger for the more demanding WNBA.

In 2025, teams would in scramble trying to land her as the number 1 pick.

Brink has a good perimeter shot, she has looked smooth from mid range and deep this year (5-12 from 3 to start, not the biggest sample size but it's a promising figure). I don't see any aspect of Brink's game that isn't pro ready and her game has a lot of similarities to A'ja Wilson. She has massive potential and will thrive in a spread out offense where she has more support from her teammates.

Paige so far this year seems like she's sort of recalibrating and figuring out her role on the court. She's not creating for others like she did as a freshman and is playing primarily off ball. She has games where she'll take over offensively and play brilliantly, and then others where she sort of fades into the background and doesn't stand out. She's a go to player some games and just isn't for others. Looking at her in the WNBA, is she a PG or a shooting guard? As you also noted, is she strong enough to handle the physicality of the WNBA right now? And can she stay injury free? She has a lot of unique traits that makes her a unicorn (amazing midrange, maybe the most efficient guard women's college basketball has ever had, great decision maker, etc) but I think another year in college would help prepare her and also serve her (and UCONN) well. A lot can change between now and April, but that's the main reason why I'd consider Brink more pro-ready.