Pac-12 very high expectations

[azfan]

This looks to be a banner year for the Pac-12. Preseason rankings have five teams in the top 25 although I think they may have misplaced the 5th team, more about that later.

There's some speculation that three Pac-12 teams could receive number 1 seeds in the tournament. While I think that's overly ambitious the third team, Oregon State, has a very solid roster. ASU is the 5th ranked team in the Pac-12. This morning We learned that the tallest player 6 ft 5 in Eva Rubin is transferring. That leaves a short ASU squad even shorter.

But the reason I think the U of A and it pains me to say this should be ranked while the Sun Devils shouldn't is the tremendous guard that the Wildcats have. McDonald was listed on the preseason all Pac-12 team for good reason. Tremendous motor great, scorer and as she matures and learns to involve her teammates I think she's going to elevate the U of A, now known as UArizona to move them up on Google search (no kidding) this year.

ASU is the 6th best team in the Pac-12 this year. I'm thinking about last December when they went down to Tucson and the U of A held the devil's to 39 points and a humiliating loss. I can definitely see Barnes building on the momentum from their NIT win and I looked for the UArizona to be the wild card team in the Pac-12 this year.

 

[bennyskid]

"Chalk" says that the Pac has 25% of the Sweet 16, 38% of the Elite Eight, and 50% of the Final Four. And one thing that the Pac had done consistently at tournament time is beat the chalk.

 

[azfan]

The University of Arizona ran its record to 3 and 0 with a victory against hapless Chicago State. I know that non-conference schedules are often set years in advance but the Wildcats have another extraordinary really weak pre-conference schedule. That said in the thirty point victory against Chicago State Wildcats all Pac-12 candidate guard McDonald scored 24 points in 20 minutes in an example of explosive scoring. Of note is despite the schedule the defense of the Wildcats appears to be really strong. As I posted elsewhere I think this Wildcats squad rather than my ASU Sun Devil team will occupy the 5th spot in the Pac-12.

 

[willtalk]

Ranking Arizona St over Arizona is an example of raters going on reputation or last seasons record rather than actual knowledge. Anyone who follows the Pac 12 already knew about Arizona vs Arizona St.

One thing though -- A team that relies on a player like McDonald, while more apt to beat superior teams on any given night, is also vulnerable to being upset by lesser teams as well. The thing is that Arizona has added good players to improve their depth this year to make those later upsets less likely. In this respect, they are much like TA&M.

 

[azfan]

NCAAW Top 25: UConn moves to No. 2; Pac-12 dominates rest of top 4

The Pac-12 conference is beginning to dominate the top of the rankings with conference play around the corner.

sports.yahoo.com

Pac-12 teams in the rankings right now: No. 1 Stanford (8-0), No. 3 Oregon (7-1), No. 4 Oregon State (8-0), No. 10 UCLA (8-0) and No. 18 Arizona (9-0). Arizona State (7-2) received a vote in this week’s poll. Colorado is also undefeated at 8-0.

 

[TheFarmFan]

I think there's a strong likelihood the PAC-12 ends up with one number one seed and two number twos. Oregon, Oregon State and Stanford will have to inflict 8 total losses on each other between regular season and the conference tournament - even if that's three each and two for the conference champion (possibly the best possible way to get three number one seeds), plus a clean sweep of the other conference teams, Baylor and UConn will likely end up as 1-2 loss teams, Oregon has a decent chance of picking up another loss in Storrs, and I think South Carolina will look like a number one seed by March.

My best guess is that one of Oregon or Oregon State is a one seed in Portland, and Stanford is a two seed in Greeneville (vs. South Carolina, or maybe Louisville if the Gamecocks' season goes sideways) or Fort Wayne (vs. UConn), and the other Oregon school will go to Dallas (vs. Baylor). I kind of feel like Baylor and Oregon State are destined for another match up in the tournament...

And I'll call it now. If the Domers make it into the tournament, they'll be bracketed in the Fort Wayne region for the possibility of a rematch with the Huskies.

 

[Plebe]

I think there's a strong likelihood the PAC-12 ends up with one number one seed and two number twos. Oregon, Oregon State and Stanford will have to inflict 8 total losses on each other between regular season and the conference tournament - even if that's three each and two for the conference champion (possibly the best possible way to get three number one seeds), plus a clean sweep of the other conference teams, Baylor and UConn will likely end up as 1-2 loss teams, Oregon has a decent chance of picking up another loss in Storrs, and I think South Carolina will look like a number one seed by March.

But seeding isn't primarily about number of losses. Notre Dame had 3 losses last year (including one to North Carolina) and were still the overall #2 seed, ahead of 2-loss teams like UConn and MS State.

Rather than looking at how many losses they'll mutually inflict, we should be thinking of all the quality wins they'll have the opportunity to rack up by playing each other multiple times. If each of them gets at least 2 high-quality (top 10) wins over each other, and they're able to avoid too many losses to the rest of the conference, they could be in a pretty decent position for 2 or possibly even 3 #1 seeds -- depending, of course, on how other top teams have done, and partly on whether Oregon can beat UConn on February.

Let's take Baylor. They missed their chance at a high-quality win over South Carolina. Their best win so far is over Indiana, which may end up being a top 15 or possibly even a top 10 win if Indiana can beat UCLA on Dec. 22 and then does really well in the Big Ten. If Baylor wins at UConn and then runs the Big 12 again, they'll be in a very good position to get a #1 seed. But if Baylor loses the UConn game, the Big 12 doesn't look like it will offer many opportunities for high-quality wins, nowhere near what the Pac-12 offers anyway.

 

[azfan]

But seeding isn't primarily about number of losses. Notre Dame had 3 losses last year (including one to North Carolina) and were still the overall #2 seed, ahead of 2-loss teams like UConn and MS State.

Rather than looking at how many losses they'll mutually inflict, we should be thinking of all the quality wins they'll have the opportunity to rack up by playing each other multiple times. If each of them gets at least 2 high-quality (top 10) wins over each other, and they're able to avoid too many losses to the rest of the conference, they could be in a pretty decent position for 2 or possibly even 3 #1 seeds -- depending, of course, on how other top teams have done, and partly on whether Oregon can beat UConn on February.

Let's take Baylor. They missed their chance at a high-quality win over South Carolina. Their best win so far is over Indiana, which may end up being a top 15 or possibly even a top 10 win if Indiana can beat UCLA on Dec. 22 and then does really well in the Big Ten. If Baylor wins at UConn and then runs the Big 12 again, they'll be in a very good position to get a #1 seed. But if Baylor loses the UConn game, the Big 12 doesn't look like it will offer many opportunities for high-quality wins, nowhere near what the Pac-12 offers anyway.

Mid conference play update.

The upcoming weekend and Monday games involving Pac-12 teams will be instructive in anticipating seeding.

Assuming Oregon beats the Huskies and the Wildcats beat the Bruins at home we could have an unexpected development.

A Oregon victory places them a position to control their own destiny to a number one seed in Portland.

A U of A win over UCLA at home would not in my view be a upset but would certainly lift the Wildcat's resume for the big dance.

Assuming Sanford loses the rematch with Oregon the Pac-12 enters the end of March with 1, 2, 3 and 4 seeds. In addition, UCLA should be a top 16 team and host the first weekend. The Devil's will have to hit the road and the last question....does Colorado make the cut or will they join Utah in the WNIT

 

[nwhoopfan]

Assuming Oregon beats the Huskies

?

Huskies are hosting the Bay Area schools and Oregon is at the Mountain Schools this week. Following week UW is hosting the Mountains. They don't play the Oregon schools until the last pair of games of the regular season. Conference race might already be decided before then.

does Colorado make the cut or will they join Utah in the WNIT

Utah may have some work to do. At this point UW and USC look just as likely to be in the WNIT as Utah does. Could be none of them end up there. USC is 11-8 overall, Utah and UW both 10-9. Utah and USC are tied in conference standings, UW 1 game behind.

 

[NWHoopFan2]

Mid conference play update.

The upcoming weekend and Monday games involving Pac-12 teams will be instructive in anticipating seeding.

Assuming Oregon beats the Huskies and the Wildcats beat the Bruins at home we could have an unexpected development.

A Oregon victory places them a position to control their own destiny to a number one seed in Portland.

A U of A win over UCLA at home would not in my view be a upset but would certainly lift the Wildcat's resume for the big dance.

Assuming Sanford loses the rematch with Oregon the Pac-12 enters the end of March with 1, 2, 3 and 4 seeds. In addition, UCLA should be a top 16 team and host the first weekend. The Devil's will have to hit the road and the last question....does Colorado make the cut or will they join Utah in the WNIT

I assume when you say Oregon beats the Huskies you are referring to Connecticut not Washington?

 

[nwhoopfan]

I assume when you say Oregon beats the Huskies you are referring to Connecticut not Washington?

Doh! That makes more sense. Well despite Baylor beating them I'm not really gonna make assumptions about anybody beating UConn at home.

 

[azfan]

I assume when you say Oregon beats the Huskies you are referring to Connecticut not Washington?

Lol

"The upcoming weekend and Monday games involving Pac-12 teams will be instructive in anticipating seeding...."

 

[Floridaduck]

Oregon schedule is ridiculously tight over the next 10 days.
@Utah tonight, travel day, @Colorado, travel day, @Uconn.
Then a travel day Tuesday back to Eugene. Practice Wed and Thurs before the Arizonas come in for Friday - Sunday.

 

[azfan]

Oregon schedule is ridiculously tight over the next 10 days.
@Utah tonight, travel day, @Colorado, travel day, @Uconn.
Then a travel day Tuesday back to Eugene. Practice Wed and Thurs before the Arizonas come in for Friday - Sunday.

You've got that right! Fortunately the first two games against lower tier Pac-12 teams shouldn't tax the Ducks. It's the last three games in this stretch that are really going to test their mettle.

Fortunately the Ducks have the Arizona schools at home. While both of those will be tough games the Arizona schools will also be facing travel issues. I would imagine the Ducks will be rested and ready to go. Revenge will be on their mind when they play the Sun Devils.

 

[willtalk]

It appears that Tapley's ( recently became eligible ) has been the piece that was missing from Arizona St. Since she became eligible they are a different team- at least up until now. Depends if her play reflects a streak or is standard play for her.

 

[WestCoast]

It appears that Tapley's ( recently became eligible ) has been the piece that was missing from Arizona St. Since she became eligible they are a different team- at least up until now. Depends if her play reflects a streak or is standard play for her.

I don't understand understand your above point about Tapley. Hasn't she been eligible and active this entire season as a grad transfer? Without Tapley on the roster, ASU would not have knocked off the Oregon schools this season. She brings a bit of physicality and nastiness to a team that already prided itself on toughness and high level effort.

 

[azfan]

I don't understand understand your above point about Tapley. Hasn't she been eligible and active this entire season as a grad transfer? Without Tapley on the roster, ASU would not have knocked off the Oregon schools this season. She brings a bit of physicality and nastiness to a team that already prided itself on toughness and high level effort.

You are absolutely correct. Ja'Tavia Tapley is a grad transfer from USC. She's played since the season opener and has started since the third game.

You are also absolutely correct without her ASU would be a sub 500 team. She provides both a defensive presence and excellent offense. Prior to the announcement of her enrollment I was very worried about the season.

Our other three bigs are sophomore Jade Van Hefty who's excellent but still developing, freshman Eboni Walker who had a breakout game against U of A last weekend and Jamie Ruden who's on a minute's limitation due to severe back problems.

While Robbi Ryan is our senior leader Tapley has been essential since the season began.

 

[azfan]

Down the stretch upsets will determine seeding in the Pac-12 tournament.

The top two seeds will be Oregon and Stanford. Four teams are vying for the remaining two top seeds in the tournament.

Of those four I think Arizona has almost locked up either third or fourth.

That means UCLA, ASU, and Oregon State will need to dodge an upset. With the remaining schedules if UCLA rights the ship against ASU tomorrow I see them as the third or fourth seed.

Interesting that Oregon State may have to play on the first day of the tournament. I'm also disappointed that ASU looks now like they will also play the first day of the tournament.

 

[azfan]

I would love for that to be so but I am not convinced Stanford has locked up no. 2, especially with both Carrington and Jones in the MASH unit with no timetable for their return. After this weekend, five of our final eight games are: vs. UCLA, vs. OSU, vs. Oregon, @ Arizona, and @ ASU. Assuming we win @ Utah and @ Colorado (no mindlessly easy feat), I would be thrilled if we won 3 of those 5 and see almost no way we win all 5. Even with UCLA's dismal outing in Tucson, they're still only one game back from us with 4 remaining "push" games: @ ASU, @ Stanford, vs. Oregon, and vs. Oregon State. If they win 3 of 4 and one of those is against us, they'd have the tie-breaker over us.

And if Arizona can at least split their road games @ Oregon and @ OSU, their only remaining ranked matchup is at home against Stanford. If they win 2 of those 3 including against Stanford, and Stanford loses 2 of the 4 to Oregon/OSU/ASU/UCLA, Arizona has the tiebreaker.

And similar logic holds for ASU, who are also just 2 back of Stanford.

So I think any of ASU, Arizona, Stanford or UCLA could emerge with the 2 seed. In my mind, the critical thing is to avoid being the 4/5 and ending up playing a semifinal vs. Oregon. That's a recipe to be on pins and needles come bracket day as to whether you'll even get to host, because the 4/5 seeds will almost surely already have 5-6 conference losses on top of the tournament loss and any non-conference losses.

Interesting analysis. Based on the remaining schedules I see Stanford in conference play with three losses. Given the ASU, Arizona, and OSU all have three or more losses now I think Stanford comfortably finishes second.

However as I said upsets will determine third and fourth place in the conference. And as you point out it's possible Stanford might well be upset. The way the schedule looks now however even with each of the top six teams experiencing one upset which is possible I would see Oregon, Stanford, Arizona, as the top three and then who knows what happens for that fourth spot.

 

[Plebe]

We're now at the halfway point of the conference schedule, with each team having played 9 games.

On paper, Arizona is the team with the lightest schedule among the top 6 teams, with only 3 remaining games against the upper half of the conference. The road trip to Oregon could be tough, but they'll have a golden opportunity at home against Stanford to notch another top-10 win.

Stanford, meanwhile, is the only upper-half team that still has to play 5 games vs. the upper half -- including the treacherous road trip to Arizona, which no one (Oregon, Oregon St, UCLA) has survived unscathed. As @TheFarmFan points out, a lot could depend on Stanford's health. The fact that they were able to hang on and win in Corvallis even after Jones exited the game is one of the more remarkable feats of the season. But it's hard to imagine these injury issues not catching up to them at some point.

Team (record)	Games remaining vs. upper half	Games remaining vs. lower half	Comments
Stanford (8-1)	UCLA Oregon St Oregon at Arizona at Arizona St	at WSU USC at Utah at Colorado	Stanford is the only upper-half team that still has to play each of other upper-half teams.
Oregon (8-1)	Arizona Arizona St at UCLA at Stanford	at Colorado at USC at Cal WSU Washington
UCLA (7-2)	at Arizona St at Stanford Oregon Oregon St	at Cal at WSU at Washington Colorado Utah
Arizona (6-3)	at Oregon at Oregon St Stanford	USC Washington WSU at Utah at Colorado Cal	The only upper-half team with only 3 games remaining vs. other upper-half teams.
Arizona St (6-3)	UCLA at Oregon at Oregon St Stanford	WSU Washington at Colorado at Utah Cal
Oregon St (5-4)	Arizona St Arizona at UCLA at Stanford	at Utah at USC at Cal Washington WSU	The only upper-half team that no longer has to play Oregon.

 

[azfan]

Agree! This is what I looked at and thinking Arizona controls their destiny to the third seed. Of course that could be said of all the top six. Given the way they'll be playing one another I still have a feeling upset or upsets will determine the final order.

I find it hard to believe that ASU will be able to go to Oregon and grab a win. If they do and avoid upsets that changes the picture.

But tomorrow's game at home against UCLA is pivotal. No one thinks Dean will go 0 for 11 from the floor.

ASU's triple-overtime effort should not be underestimated. Both Reili Richardson and Robbi Ryan played more than 40 minutes. I was surprised because Ryan has been on a minutes watch I think due to a ankle or foot injury. While she is tough-as-nails I'm always on pins and needles when she goes over that minute limit which I thought was 25 per game.

Jamie Ruden's play suggests that her back has deteriorated. Her shooting over the last three games has fallen off tremendously.

Of course UCLA does have the emotional drain from their whipping at McHale and they had that bus ride up I-10 to think about it.

So as to seating I guess we need to factor in Stanford's health. I do know looking at the schedule I'd rather be in Stanford's position than OSU or ASU as they have both Oregon schools at home.

Also I'm wondering how UCLA will respond.

Isn't WBB great?

 

[Plebe]

Agree! This is what I looked at and thinking Arizona controls their destiny to the third seed. Of course that could be said of all the top six. Given the way they'll be playing one another I still have a feeling upset or upsets will determine the final order.

I find it hard to believe that ASU will be able to go to Oregon and grab a win. If they do and avoid upsets that changes the picture.

But tomorrow's game at home against UCLA is pivotal. No one thinks Dean will go 0 for 11 from the floor.

ASU's triple-overtime effort should not be underestimated. Both Reili Richardson and Robbi Ryan played more than 40 minutes. I was surprised because Ryan has been on a minutes watch I think due to a ankle or foot injury. While she is tough-as-nails I'm always on pins and needles when she goes over that minute limit which I thought was 25 per game.

Jamie Ruden's play suggests that her back has deteriorated. Her shooting over the last three games has fallen off tremendously.

Of course UCLA does have the emotional drain from their whipping at McHale and they had that bus ride up I-10 to think about it.

So as to seating I guess we need to factor in Stanford's health. I do know looking at the schedule I'd rather be in Stanford's position than OSU or ASU as they have both Oregon schools at home.

Also I'm wondering how UCLA will respond.

Tomorrow's game could go any number of ways. However, I could see ASU coming out really flat after expending such a herculean effort to beat USC, and I can also see UCLA being extremely motivated to right their ship after crashing in Tucson. But let's face it, UCLA hasn't looked at all the same since Onyenwere's injury, and Dean was simply awful against Arizona. They need to get Corsaro back. She's their glue player and brings a calming influence, albeit not an offensive threat.

 

[nwhoopfan]

As important as the top half games against each other are, I figure some lower half teams are going to play spoiler. I think USC beating UCLA at home is the only example so far, but there have been quite a few near misses. USC could get somebody else, Colorado and Washington have both been close. Avoiding losing any games to bottom half teams could play just as big of a role in determining final standings.