PAC-12 Chaos

[ZooCougar]

The only way you say the Apple deal isn’t weak is from the perspective that before there was no deal and it was way overdue.

From a fan perspective this is terrible because like Apple MLS deal you will have to pay not one but two subscriptions just to watch all of the games.

Some games will be available without a subscription but the ones people really would want to see will be behind the subscription.

And guess what people are sick of right about now? Subscriptions.

Moving your games over there is very risky. If I want to be positioned to take advantage of streaming I would prefer to be on the YouTube side.

 

[ZooCougar]

and neither are the schools. You are discounting the value of length. This will be a short term deal. A 20 mil baseline with some escalator may be enough to buy time.

It’s a band aid at best. But painting it as a good deal doesn’t make sense.

 

[djct1999]

It’s a band aid at best. But painting it as a good deal doesn’t make sense.

Not painting it as good, saying it’s not as bad as you are perhaps painting it. Yea, it’s a band aid. Better than I expected and might be good enough for now.
The landscape is changing. As for the fans, who knows what incentives they may receive from schools. It may not cost them anything. I get Apple TV free because of all the other crap I buy from them.

 

[djct1999]

The only way you say the Apple deal isn’t weak is from the perspective that before there was no deal and it was way overdue.

From a fan perspective this is terrible because like Apple MLS deal you will have to pay not one but two subscriptions just to watch all of the games.

Some games will be available without a subscription but the ones people really would want to see will be behind the subscription.

And guess what people are sick of right about now? Subscriptions.

Moving your games over there is very risky. If I want to be positioned to take advantage of streaming I would prefer to be on the YouTube side.

Again, this is short sighted. . Maybe Apple has informed them their intentions to buy/partner w espn. Then most deals will look like this. We don’t know the details yet. Apple is making a move into live content. It’s not a bad company to work with.

 

[bobbyinaz]

It’s a band aid at best. But painting it as a good deal doesn’t make sense.

The PAC spent years trying to get distribution for the PAC Network that was unsuccessful because nobody was interested in watching it.

What makes anyone think there will be actual paying subscribers to a streaming product?

 

[Bryant]

Not painting it as good, saying it’s not as bad as you are perhaps painting it. Yea, it’s a band aid. Better than I expected and might be good enough for now.
The landscape is changing. As for the fans, who knows what incentives they may receive from schools. It may not cost them anything. I get Apple TV free because of all the other crap I buy from them.

If they set this up like the MLS package, getting Apple TV for free won’t give you access to the games. The MLS package is an additional charge on top of the standard Apple TV subscription.

 

[WestCoastHusky]

Based on leaked reports, that Pac 12 deal is not bad, and they got it from Apple. So I guessed right on that.

The part I got wrong was Colorado caking its pants and panic-jumping to the Big 12 with a solid Pac 12 deal days away. I definitely didn't think that would happen. I assumed when Colorado jumped that there must be no deal or a bad deal pending, and I figured that would start a stampede for the door of the Pac 12. Now, the Pac 9 members are just evaluating the offer like normal people would and figuring out what they want to do in a measured, methodical way. Unlike Colorado.

Now the Pac 9 schools have a decent deal, and Apple is willing to fund 3 schools to be added. That went about as well as it could have for the Pac 9, if initial reports of the Apple deal are to be believed. Since every source is reporting the same thing, that seems likely.

An under-reported aspect of this is that the Pac 9 could be sitting pretty in a few years while everyone else is looking down the barrel of a distressed media partner. Apple has the deepest of deep pockets, and doesn't lose, ever. ESPN's business model is collapsing and its owner is talking about dumping it or trying to get its customers to invest in it. I know who I would prefer to be in business with.

This is exactly right. The new PAC-12 deal isn't as bad as people think.

I am pretty sure Apple tied the deal to the growth of its Apple plus subscription base. In other words, Apple is counting on all the PAC-12 schools to help grow its network. Apple will pay these schools based on the amount of growth schools brought in.

People should not underestimate Apple. Apple is far more innovative than other media companies like ESPN etc. Apple can make all the PAC-12 content far more interactive, which can create a far better fan experience in the future vs other platforms. If anything, this is the future of live sporting events with plenty of interactive fan experience tied to social media etc. I like to think of it akin to online gaming that's extremely addictive to all the youth today.

If UConn can't get into the B12, it should be looking into partnering with a company like Apple for future content deals. Big East should do the same.

I am hoping the proposed contract will be good enough to hold the PAC together. Hopefully, it will be good enough to get UConn to be #14.

 

[djct1999]

The PAC spent years trying to get distribution for the PAC Network that was unsuccessful because nobody was interested in watching it.

What makes anyone think there will be actual paying subscribers to a streaming product?

Sometimes you have to look deeper than face value. We don't know exactly what was pitched and the future may bring. Maybe Apple shed some light on their plans and beneath the surface, things appear different. Who knows. Its simple to just dismiss this. Yet, the Pac 12 hasn't. Why?

 

[ZooCougar]

Again, this is short sighted. . Maybe Apple has informed them their intentions to buy/partner w espn. Then most deals will look like this. We don’t know the details yet. Apple is making a move into live content. It’s not a bad company to work with.

And maybe Apple has plans to project games on the surface of the moon.

Now you are just making stuff up.

Look at the MLS and MLB deals as a guide.

It’s a good deal for Apple but not a great deal for the PAC 9. And it comes with many risks.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Big 12. Nobody ever hits those escalators.

Zoo just learned there are UHF stations.

 

[ZooCougar]

The PAC spent years trying to get distribution for the PAC Network that was unsuccessful because nobody was interested in watching it.

What makes anyone think there will be actual paying subscribers to a streaming product?

Nobody will. It’s hilarious that people are painting the deal as “visionary”.

 

[WestCoastHusky]

Sometimes you have to look deeper than face value. We don't know exactly what was pitched and the future may bring. Maybe Apple shed some light on their plans and beneath the surface, things appear different. Who knows. Its simple to just dismiss this. Yet, the Pac 12 hasn't. Why?

All the Yahoos on social media talking about the PAC deal have no clue about how it is structured etc. It is also clear these Yahoo's don't understand digital media or the future of interactive live sporting events.

They all downplayed the new PAC deal believing it will lead to the breakout of the PAC-12. The reality is Apple probably presented something that's pretty new and innovative, which probably got many presidents thinking.

If the presidents do accept, the PAC will expand quickly in the coming days. Hopefully, they will get to 12 while UConn becomes #14 for the B12.

 

[ZooCougar]

Not painting it as good, saying it’s not as bad as you are perhaps painting it. Yea, it’s a band aid. Better than I expected and might be good enough for now.
The landscape is changing. As for the fans, who knows what incentives they may receive from schools. It may not cost them anything. I get Apple TV free because of all the other crap I buy from them.

It’s probably worse.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

The only way you say the Apple deal isn’t weak is from the perspective that before there was no deal and it was way overdue.

From a fan perspective this is terrible because like Apple MLS deal you will have to pay not one but two subscriptions just to watch all of the games.

Some games will be available without a subscription but the ones people really would want to see will be behind the subscription.

And guess what people are sick of right about now? Subscriptions.

Moving your games over there is very risky. If I want to be positioned to take advantage of streaming I would prefer to be on the YouTube side.

Zoo is the kind of guy that pays $300 a month for cable and internet for a bunch of stuff he doesn’t watch, but says that a $6/month subscription for games that sports fans will watch and re-watch (in addition to the other AppleTV content) is a showstopper.

 

[WestCoastHusky]

Imagine during live sporting games that every highlight is immediately available within secs across all social media. This kind of interaction might get casual viewers to tune into the game even though they might be watching something else.

During Angels MLB games, many Shohei Ohtani highlights especially his HRs are immediately available on social media etc. MLB has been doing stuff like this to promote Shohei Ohtani on his historical greatest season ever by a MLB player. MLB attendance is up like 9% this year. One of the factors for success is the MLB app, the ballpark app etc. MLB has been pretty innovative this way, and I imagine Apple is on the same path if not more.

 

[MCMax]

I for one will pledge to subscribe to the Pac-12 package on Apple TV if it helps keep them together and gives UConn the #14 spot in the Big 12...

 

[ZooCougar]

Zoo is the kind of guy that pays $300 a month for cable and internet for a bunch of stuff he doesn’t watch, but says that a $6/month subscription for games that sports fans will watch and re-watch (in addition to the other AppleTV content) is a showstopper.

I’m 100% streaming there killer. I have YouTube TV and probably all the same crap that you do minus Netflix because Netflix sucks.

YouTube TV is just as good as having the old cable of directv, actually it’s probably better. I think they will end up buying ESPN.

I need to cancel Peacock though.

There is tons of market evidence which shows people have subscription fatigue.

 

[Skiblets]

A base of 20 is a solid foundation. Escalators will be negotiated down. On top of that, can individual schools create own content? A weekly Oregon show w the coach plus a a hard knocks type show can add money to each school quickly. Let’s wait and see the final details. This is the wave of the future. Do the schools realize that and can they turn it into an advantage? A school like Oregon certainly can.

Immediately the base is lowered by the fact that the Pac is on the hook for production costs. So it’s already worse than ‘reported ‘ and the math in the escalators doesn’t work at all

 

[djct1999]

And maybe Apple has plans to project games on the surface of the moon.

Now you are just making stuff up.

Look at the MLS and MLB deals as a guide.

It’s a good deal for Apple but not a great deal for the PAC 9. And it comes with many risks.

Stop putting words in my mouth. Go back and read what i wrote. I never said it was a great deal for the Pac 9. I said its not as bad as people like you are making it out to be. Big difference. And with all the risks there is also upside. Upside that you are simply dismissing as 0.

 

[JMick]

Zoo is the kind of guy that pays $300 a month for cable and internet for a bunch of stuff he doesn’t watch, but says that a $6/month subscription for games that sports fans will watch and re-watch (in addition to the other AppleTV content) is a showstopper.

You're just describing the average sports fan.

Putting the league behind a paywall is going to kill their ratings and exposure. If you're a PAC-12 fan it's pretty great. All your stuff in one spot and for relatively cheap.

But if you're just a football fan it's awful. I watch a ton of PAC-12 football. PAC after dark is a staple in my friend group because it's always on late at night when we're all hanging out at someone's house.

None of us are going to sign up for Apple TV just to keep watching it though. We'll put a MWC game on instead.

I imagine we are not that unique.

 

[JMick]

Immediately the base is lowered by the fact that the Pac is on the hook for production costs. So it’s already worse than ‘reported ‘ and the math in the escalators doesn’t work at all

If that's true then the deal is terrible

 

[billybud]

The problems with the Apple proposal...

1...For the next few years most of US football fans will access live football via linear channels
2...there may not be nationsl demand to watch Pac 12 games and purchase streaming...and not enough PAC 12 interest as is.
3...Apple does stream MLS...but has no production involvement...the football streaming production would seem to be up to the PAC 12.
4....Trading known revenue for a business model that predicates growth to receive a competitive return. Growth that some analysts do not see happening

 

[ZooCougar]

You're just describing the average sports fan.

Putting the league behind a paywall is going to kill their ratings and exposure. If you're a PAC-12 fan it's pretty great. All your stuff in one spot and for relatively cheap.

But if you're just a football fan it's awful. I watch a ton of PAC-12 football. PAC after dark is a staple in my friend group because it's always on late at night when we're all hanging out at someone's house.

None of us are going to sign up for Apple TV just to keep watching it though. We'll put a MWC game on instead.

I imagine we are not that unique.

It really is two paywalls. Unless you just bought an Apple Device you are paying for Apple TV and then the PAC 12 will likely be an additional subscription just like it is with MLS.

That’s how MLS is banking on actually making money on this deal. Which is why the league just paid a fortune to get Messi (If you think Beckham is paying for al of it keep dreaming), the whole play was about boosting subscribers.

Also people want to channel surf, and that means they will adopt platforms that allow that. Apple TV does not.

 

[Rufus]

The B1G can't add teams until the next contract. There is no pro-rata for additions which means payouts to new schools would come at the expense of existing schools. Can't imagine any B1G schools willing to take a pay cut until the next contract short of adding Alabama or Texas.

If Fox wants a team in the B1G, they will add $$ to the contract to make it happen. Same with NBC and CBS. One of Greg Fluguar's sources said CBS and NBC have already agreed to pay extra for Washington and Oregon. Fluguar has been spot on with how everything has played out so far, so I'm inclined to believe him.

 

[ZooCougar]

If that's true then the deal is terrible

I totally forgot about that part. This is true for MLS and it’s the same sort of deal that convinced UConn to leave the AAC.