Our opponents ranked by Sagarin and Predicted Record

[Zerostatic]

Last season I made a post where I ranked our opponents by Sagarin ratings and speculated what our record would be had we improved our Sagarin rating to just 60. The post seems pretty prophetic about what ended up happening (we increased to 66 and we lost to the teams that had scores above that and beat the teams that had scored below that. I quoted at the end of this post for reference.

Anyway, I thought I would do the same for this Season. This is where we rank next to our opponents (adjusted for home/away).

79.18 @ Syracuse
76.73 @ Boston College
71.88 Duke


66.05 - UConn

65.45 @ Buffalo
64.91 @ Rice
63.04 Air Force
58.30 UAB
58.23 @ Florida Atlantic
56.5 @ Delaware
54.89 FIU
53.11 Ball State
41 CCSU

It seems like there is a decent gap between us & the 3 ACC schools on our schedule. Those are probable losses. Then there is another group of 3 schools (Buffalo, Air Force and Rice) that I think everyone here is a bit over confident on. They seem to be fairly close to us. I'd say we are likely to go 2-1 against those 3. Then there's another gap and you have the rest of our schedule which I'm much more confident on. With that said, we're bound to get unlucky and lost at least 1 of those games so I say we'll go 5-1 against those teams.

Our over/under on wins is probably 7.5 with a records of 7-6 and 8-5 being the most likely outcomes.

Personally I want a winning record and a bowl game even if that is 7-6. Without a conference, that is not a bad scenario to consistently be in until we can get the team in a conference (whether that's the mythical P4 invite or a football only G5 invite).

Spoiler: The post I made last year

I was bored so I used the Sagarin ratings from last year (adjusted to factor home/away) and applied it to this year. Obviously teams will change a lot but this is where UConn Ranks compared to this years scheduled based off of last years results:

vs. Merrimack - 33.50
Temple - 46.07
Buffalo - 51.01
@ UMass - 51.09
UConn - 53.14
FAU - 56.91
@ UAB - 59.69
vs. Rice 59.81
vs. Georgia State 59.84
Wake Forest - 62.41
@ Syracuse - 62.44
@ Duke - 81.55
@ Maryland - 81.99

If we improve to just a 60 rated team which is about the 110th best team in collegefootball we'd probably make a bowl game with this schedule. As weak as this schedule may be (it really seems like a typical G5 conference schedule) I think making bowl games will help our prospects in conference realignment.

 

[pepband99]

THIS is a proper victory lap humblebrag. If only guys who used to go by country music names could figure that part out...

 

[businesslawyer]

As was pointed out last year, the problem with knowing how “good” or “mediocre” we were last year was that of the 8 games we won outside the power conferences, none of those teams were any good. Buffalo was the best, but that was an above average — not even top — MAC teams. You can’t give too much importance on prior year’s Sagarin ratings given the changes in ratings year by year, but if next year is like last year we have some games that winning would tell us more than any of our pre-bowl wins did last year.

 

[willie99]

We rolled UNC in December, we barely lost other games vs ACC opponents

We're winning those close games this year

10-2 or better. It's time

 

[Purple Stein]

Thanks for doing this! The bottom of this year's schedule looks stronger than the bottom of last year's schedule.

 

[SubbaBub]

If last year's number meant anything then a 20 pt gap is winnable (or could be a blowout) and a 10 pt gap is very winnable.

That would suggest every game on the schedule is winnable. The two road games against improved Cuse and BC would be tough wins. Duke at home should be a target win. Honestly, losing any other game would be a disappointment.

If the team improves at all we should be looking a anywhere from 10-2 to 8-4, with 8-4 being a missed opportunity. Cuse just lost their NFL QB, so who knows.

 

[Skies2018]

I want a double digit win column. It’s time

 

[Zerostatic]

If last year's number meant anything then a 20 pt gap is winnable (or could be a blowout) and a 10 pt gap is very winnable.

That would suggest every game on the schedule is winnable. The two road games against improved Cuse and BC would be tough wins. Duke at home should be a target win. Honestly, losing any other game would be a disappointment.

If the team improves at all we should be looking a anywhere from 10-2 to 8-4, with 8-4 being a missed opportunity. Cuse just lost their NFL QB, so who knows.

Last years rating was rating us based on our 3-9 record. I think it was safe to assume that we were better than that performance. This year's rating is based on our 9-4 performance from last year. I do not see us being a substantially better team than last year's 9-4 team.

 

[Hoophound]

Last years rating was rating us based on our 3-9 record. I think it was safe to assume that we were better than that performance. This year's rating is based on our 9-4 performance from last year. I do not see us being a substantially better team than last year's 9-4 team.

Wcould be substantially better. We lost 2-3 games by not playing Fagnano. We bring back some great weapons and we brought in some solid replacements. This season really depends on Joe and the receivers clicking and progressing and the OL providing coverage. We can have a breakout season this year as easily as we can go 7-5. I’m going to stay positive and say we at least match last season.

 

[businesslawyer]

We return almost no defensive starters. Maybe 2 DBs? In this portal NIL period, that doesn’t mean we’ll be worse next year. But on defense we have no reason to think we’ll be better either.

 

[CL82]

Wcould be substantially better. We lost 2-3 games by not playing Fagnano. We bring back some great weapons and we brought in some solid replacements. This season really depends on Joe and the receivers clicking and progressing and the OL providing coverage. We can have a breakout season this year as easily as we can go 7-5. I’m going to stay positive and say we at least match last season.

Also, Fagnano would've been better earlier if he had starters reps. Hopefully whoever ends up as quarterback, ends up being the quarterback. from the start of camp.

If I recall correctly, we lost all three of our games to the ACC by one score. It wouldn't take much for that to have gone the other way.

 

[Kowalski]

We return almost no defensive starters. Maybe 2 DBs? In this portal NIL period, that doesn’t mean we’ll be worse next year. But on defense we have no reason to think we’ll be better either.

True, DL & linebackers were a strength last year and that core isn’t returning. I hope they can reload through the portal & maybe they can. Mora and staff used the portal to fill needs effectively last year.

 

[Hoophound]

True, DL & linebackers were a strength last year and that core isn’t returning. I hope they can reload through the portal & maybe they can. Mora and staff used the portal to fill needs effectively last year.

We return almost no defensive starters. Maybe 2 DBs? In this portal NIL period, that doesn’t mean we’ll be worse next year. But on defense we have no reason to think we’ll be better either.

I was under the impression that the staff thinks we more than adequately replaced everyone. I’ve been assuming they are right. Mora has proven to be pretty solid on D, I’m keeping my head firmly buried in the sand for now, it feels better.

 

[ShakyTheMohel]

We return almost no defensive starters. Maybe 2 DBs? In this portal NIL period, that doesn’t mean we’ll be worse next year. But on defense we have no reason to think we’ll be better either.

The DL is the most concerning. That’s why the Yates fiasco was painful. But…Brock and Mora have proven to be good at piecing the D together.

 

[uconndogs]

Pre-season assessments have always been tough, but in this era of the portal and roster turnover I don't know how it's even remotely feasible. Our turnover on defense and the OL is considerable, how do we know we're going to be better than last year or the opponents we'll face this season?

 

[J187Money]

Not perfect data - but bodes well for a good season. I'd love a 9-3 regular season or better - think we have a shot at it.

 

[DoctorWho85]

Is higher or lower better? I'm assuming higher.

 

[Jetskies]

thank you ZeroStatic!
i see a 7-win minimum. 9 win max.

the fearful/traumatized husky in me also isn't counting my chickens and isn't beyond thinking (perhaps unreasonably) that a 2-win season is still very possible for this conference-less UConn program.

The portal scares me, never sure how "net" good we end up when it's all said and done in a given off-season.

 

[Zerostatic]

Is higher or lower better? I'm assuming higher.

Higher is better.

 

[KembaKek]

For those talking about defensive returners.. here were the starters from last season and whether or not they’ll return.

Yates -> Transferred
Gourdine -> Grad
Stafford -> Grad

McDonald -> Grad
Faumina-Brown -> Grad
Hardy -> Transferred

Chadwick -> Returning
Wright -> Grad
Brinson -> Returning
Dixon-Williams -> Grad
Jones -> Grad

Notable depth guys:
McLean -> Returning
Molette -> Retuning
M. Bell -> Transferred
Barton -> Grad
Branch -> Returning
Banks -> Grad
Choute -> Returning
Renwick -> Returning
Key -> Returning