Stole this from elsewhere, but it sums things up pretty well:
Pagano saw:
- The Patriots’ defense adjust to the ploy, with a minimum of confusion, so there didn't appear to be hope of forcing the Pats to waste a timeout.
- The Patriots leaving no eligible player uncovered and no mismatch to exploit.
- No substitutions by the Patriots, so no chance for the 12-men-on-the-field penalty.
- No Patriots player lining up offside, or jumping offside.
- The majority of own players lining up one yard behind the LOS, and so about to get flagged.
- Lastly, Whalen and Anderson, the snapper and QB for the play, looking like they were going to go through with snapping the ball as the play clock wound down.
He saw all this, but didn't signal for a timeout himself.
I know taking a TO by the Colts would be a "loss" on the play, but it would be pretty minor compared to actually snapping the ball, getting stuffed and turning it over on downs inside their own 40.
Also, the Colts punter said they began working on that play last season. I can't imagine that meant they were spending time at every practice on it, but it had been kicking around for a little while. It's hard to believe that when the anticipated benefits of the play (TO, offsides by the Patriots, one or no defensive players around the ball) didn't materialize and the defense was ready to stop the ball carrier, the players didn't just take the delay of game penalty or the coaches didn't call a timeout just in case the players were really going to run the play.
