I just have to add that Tulane is infuriatingly inconsistent. They took down LSU and Central Michigan in the nonconference and had a genuine chance at an at-large bid if they could've done reasonably well in the AAC. They now have 3 wins over the RPI top 50, but it's all for naught because they also have 6 losses to teams outside the top 100.
As for UCF, well, this loss doesn't necessarily kill their chances at an at-large bid, but it slices the margin razor-thin. Their RPI is still high enough (in the teens) to keep them in the conversation. But unlike Tulane, they just don't have the quality wins to provide any kind of safety net. Best wins are over Villanova and Quinnipiac.