OT: would you take this bet? | The Boneyard

OT: would you take this bet?

UConnTrumbull

UConnTrumbull

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Buddy of mine is offering this wager: pick 4 teams to win the MBB national championship, he gets the field. Even money.

1) would you take that bet?
2) who would be your 4 choices?

*if UConn is on your list, I hate you.
 
Odds are in his favor for sure. I'd pick UNC, KU and I'd need to think about the other two. No Nova as repeating is nearly impossible. No Zags because they aren't tested.

Now if you offered that in say, 1999 I'd have jumped on it as their were two teams well ahead of the field. This year? No clear best team.
 
duke, kansas, unc, kentucky are the ones I would take.

But zona looks good this year too.
 
This is the kind of year a 1, 2 or maybe 3 seed blue blood wins it all. Just pick the 4 bluebloods that are seeded best..or maybe the 3 that are seeded best and some kind of highly seeded wildcard similar to nova last year or uconn 99 type of team. I feel like any time there is parity, a blueblood shuts everyone up in march and wins it all, like a duke or unc or something. I would touch it.
 
UConnTrumbull said:
Buddy of mine is offering this wager: pick 4 teams to win the MBB national championship, he gets the field. Even money.

1) would you take that bet?
2) who would be your 4 choices?

*if UConn is on your list, I hate you.
Expand ...
You should definitely get odds if you take this bet. This year is a total crapshoot. Ask for 3-1 at least.

My four: Oregon, UNC, UCLA, Zags
 
UConnTrumbull said:
Buddy of mine is offering this wager: pick 4 teams to win the MBB national championship, he gets the field. Even money.

1) would you take that bet?
2) who would be your 4 choices?

*if UConn is on your list, I hate you.
Expand ...
You are getting really bad odds, I would pass.

If I had to pick 4 it would probably be UNC, Duke, Gonzaga, and Kansas.
 
I don't think it's as lopsided as it's being made out to be. I would imagine that taking the four top teams against the field fetch close to even odds given that #1 seeds win the title quite often (off the top of my head, seven times in the last 11 years). I'd still take the field, because it's tightly bunched at the top this year, but I'd have to think about it. In order of likelihood I'd go something like:

1. Duke
2. North Carolina
3. Gonzaga
4. Villanova
5. Kentucky
6. Louisville
 
People are listing Kentucky? Why. They are a candidate for a first round upset. Unimpressive. Duke has great talent but just lost to Syracuse. Oregon is an interesting choice.
 
I wouldn't take it, but, I'm curious - do you get to see the brackets before choosing your teams? Or do you have to choose now?

I'm just trying to think of what teams I would have taken in 2014. I know I wouldn't have had UConn, but I want to revisit those brackets to see which teams I picked and how many were correct. (I also wouldn't have had Kentucky, and probably expected MSU to be in the FF). Which means I might have had one FF team, and no champion.
 
Scottzer said:
I wouldn't take it, but, I'm curious - do you get to see the brackets before choosing your teams? Or do you have to choose now?

I'm just trying to think of what teams I would have taken in 2014. I know I wouldn't have had UConn, but I want to revisit those brackets to see which teams I picked and how many were correct. (I also wouldn't have had Kentucky, and probably expected MSU to be in the FF). Which means I might have had one FF team, and no champion.
Expand ...
He wants an answer before selection Sunday haha. I agree that seeing the brackets would help, I probably won't take the bet. I just don't see any clear cut top 4.
 
UConnTrumbull said:
Buddy of mine is offering this wager: pick 4 teams to win the MBB national championship, he gets the field. Even money.

1) would you take that bet?
2) who would be your 4 choices?

*if UConn is on your list, I hate you.
Expand ...
UConn is 1000/1 at one Vegas book.

In a heart beat I would take that and give him the field.

Not UConn at 1000/1 but the bet in general.
 
Last edited:
I'd take it. If you usually spend some money in bracket pools, take it for 25.00-50.00 and ride your favorites as a hedge. Then pick a couple upsets in the bracket pools hoping you catch a lower seed winning it all. Why not? Take the top 4 teams listed by Vegas with odds to win it all.
 
Deepster said:
Sports Betting News and Vegas Odds

Duke
Gonzaga
UNC
Kansas / Villanova

Top 4 current teams favored to win it all.
Expand ...
So adding up those odds you are getting a total of 48% chance of winning - if/when those teams become 1 or 2 seeds that'll probably tick up. Dook favorite at 15/2 doesn't make sense, has to be simply because the public likes to bet Dook.
I'd take it with NC, Kansas, UCLA & Nova, although that's currently only a 43% chance, like the chances 3/4 are the #1s and UCLA as a 2 takes out Zags. Regardless have to pick with seeding and regions in mind to try and avoid eliminating yourself. I'd guess if this guy gets a good number of folks to go against him he'll win 60% of time.
 

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