OT. The importance/difficulty of evaluating talent

[Kibitzer]

The recent NFL draft is instructive in that it reminds us of how vitally important and extremely difficult it is to evaluate individual talent level of athletes.

NFL teams spend millions of dollars in their year-long effort to identify players to draft and yet the number of "busts" is astounding and well documented.

Then there is a horde of Mel Kiper clones who get paid handsomely for publishing or airing how they think it should be or will be done.

Finally, an army of geeky fetishists with a passion for the NFL and excessive free time. There were hundreds of "mock drafts" generated by these folks.

None of the above -- not one! -- predicted that the Steelers would ace round one (drafting DeCastro) by simply sitting still and watching a parade of 23 young men in fancy suits and silly hats do photo-ops with the Commish.

None predicted that a mere punter would be taken at #70 with oodles of testosterone-laden hunks still available.

Or that the Browns (who else?) would draft a 28-year old quarterback.

Then, to top it off, the day after all this activity in Radio City Music Hall, there was a race to declare "Winners and Losers" without any drafted players having yet put on a helmet. Amazingly, the various "experts" often had the same teams identified as winners by one analyst and losers by another (e.g., New England, Cleveland, Washington).

What does this have to do with wcbb? Just keep reading message boards like this as recruits commit and take all the speculation with a pinch of salt.

 

[grizz36]

Hell, I like this too much to just press the like button.

 

[alexrgct]

Football is also a lot more difficult to project than WBB. It's a violent sport and highly specialized. Kids who play it are granted social privilege that, in conjunction with the violence part of it, often leads to poor decisions that derail careers. Injuries derail careers. The specialization aspect means that at each level, there is that much more required of a position, and some people just can't cut the mustard, despite their success at the level below. QB is especially a crapshoot. There aren't even enough good QBs for each NFL team to have one. At any given point, there are maybe 15 people on the planet that can play quarterback at an elite level.

How many super big-time WCBB prospects have failed? Some pan out better than others, but most are at least reasonably successful. Tina Charles, Maya Moore, EDD, Brittney Griner, Chiney Ogwumike, KML...all high school #1s, all tremendous. And Breanna is going to be tremendous too.

 

[Kibitzer]

Good valid points, Alex. Still, there are the occasional over-rated (April Sykes was #2?) and under-rated (Angel McCaughtry, Alana Beard) players that remind us that even the keen eyes of knowledgeable and experienced coaches err in their evaluation. Makes judgments by us couch potatoes -- relying on news clips, rating services, maybe a little video -- to be highly suspect, despite their enthusiastic, confident, and optimistic presentation.

Read any message board. We all get carried away. That explains how "fan" derives from "fanatic."

 

[Scotter]

While I don't think the NFL is that instructive for basketball. I do think that the NBA draft is very instructive to put recruiting and particularly recruiting rankings. There are sure fire stars like in WCBB, but NBA teams also spend enormous amounts of money evalutating players for what will be a multi-millionare dollar decision and they can't get it right either with any great degree of accuracy outside of only a couple of surefire players, and then only if it is a deep draft.

Football is also a lot more difficult to project than WBB. It's a violent sport and highly specialized. Kids who play it are granted social privilege that, in conjunction with the violence part of it, often leads to poor decisions that derail careers. Injuries derail careers. The specialization aspect means that at each level, there is that much more required of a position, and some people just can't cut the mustard, despite their success at the level below. QB is especially a crapshoot. There aren't even enough good QBs for each NFL team to have one. At any given point, there are maybe 15 people on the planet that can play quarterback at an elite level.

How many super big-time WCBB prospects have failed? Some pan out better than others, but most are at least reasonably successful. Tina Charles, Maya Moore, EDD, Brittney Griner, Chiney Ogwumike, KML...all high school #1s, all tremendous. And Breanna is going to be tremendous too.

 

[DaddyChoc]

in college player "select" where they want to play... in the pro you are hired to work for them even if you dont want to. Some underperform because they dont want to be with that lousy team.

Lebron said he didnt choose to play for Cleveland (people said he turned his back on them when he left) he was drafted (hired) and once his contract was up he was able to "decide" where he wanted to play.

 

[Kibitzer]

in college player "select" where they want to play... in the pro you are hired to work for them even if you dont want to. Some underperform because they dont want to be with that lousy team.

Lebron said he didnt choose to play for Cleveland (people said he turned his back on them when he left) he was drafted (hired) and once his contract was up he was able to "decide" where he wanted to play.

Free agency (with limitations) enables professional athletes to "decide" where to play. In college, the coaches are free (assuming no contract violation) to roam about but when the athletes seek a change, they have to sit for a year (penance? punishment?). What's good for the goose is not good for the gander.

An example (hypothetical, but realistic). Kim Barnes Arico just took a new job as she left St. John's to coach at Michigan. She recruited all the players on the St. John's roster. If any of them wanted to transfer (even to Michigan, to stay with KBA), they could not play next season, but she coaches without interruption, last season in NYC, next season in Ann Arbor.

 

[DaddyChoc]

Free agency (with limitations) enables professional athletes to "decide" where to play. In college, the coaches are free (assuming no contract violation) to roam about but when the athletes seek a change, they have to sit for a year (penance? punishment?). What's good for the goose is not good for the gander.

An example (hypothetical, but realistic). Kim Barnes Arico just took a new job as she left St. John's to coach at Michigan. She recruited all the players on the St. John's roster. If any of them wanted to transfer (even to Michigan, to stay with KBA), they could not play next season, but she coaches without interruption, last season in NYC, next season in Ann Arbor.

thats not fair... any change from the time the LOI was signed til the change, the player should have the option.

BUT when HS coach does the same... there's whispers of sandal and cheating etc.