OT: Sunderland ‘til I Die

[outlaw]

semi-related - anyone remember the Geordie on the UConn Gone Wild snap saga?

she had everyone supporting Sunderland

 

[Exit 4]

Are you aware of the disparity in demand between Westchester and Greenwich/Stamford? (vis a vis NY Income tax and property tax capped) I believe values are up in Fairfield and dropping precipitously in Westchester etc.

Demand is flowing east.

Putterman is a putz. A Connecticut kid who went to Northwestern and likes to piss on us. .

Much to chew on here- but i’ll zero on real estate. As a resident of lower FF county for 18 years and avid real estate watcher - I can tell you that real estate around here has been soft for three years. We tanked in 2008, had a nice recovery by 2013 with homes under 2.5 million rebounding nicely and anything within a mile or so for the Long Island sound, then crept slowly up until around 2016 and been sliding backwards since then. Faith in the state is very low down here. The move ins from Westchester are way over stated. Moreover, all the homes priced over 5 million to 25 million back in 2008 are worth 30 to 50% less today. No recovery for big ticket homes down here since 2008 unless you have a direct view of the ocean.

Spec house building is very flat as well. Lots of projects started in 2012 eventually sold for underwhelming prices in 2016 and that has lead to a correction with fewer specs going on today than 5 years ago.

Everyone that can afford 2m home knows that CT has a debt bomb on par with Puerto Rico and therefore all we have are reluctant buyers coming in expecting to lose and doing it because for now they happen to be lucky enough to have a good job where the risk is worthwhile.

One thing the statistics dont show is how many home sales have been to holding companies for rental portfolios. In my part of town, probably 30% of the single family home sales during the recovery have been to portfolio builders who rent the homes out. Yes, that is right, buying older $1 to 1.5 million homes which are turned to rentals for 6k to 9k a month. While the renters rarely stay more than 2 years, the homes also rarely stay empty more than a month between tenants. Of course your typical house renter is someone that just took a job in NYC from someplace afar or from overseas.

As for Putterman, ugh- not a fan.... he’s just another “writer” ready to throw dirt on the UConn grave. Mike Anthony and Fuller remain the fairest writers.

 

[Pudge]

Much to chew on here- but i’ll zero on real estate. As a resident of lower FF county for 18 years and avid real estate watcher - I can tell you that real estate around here has been soft for three years. We tanked in 2008, had a nice recovery by 2013 with homes under 2.5 million rebounding nicely and anything within a mile or so for the Long Island sound, then crept slowly up until around 2016 and been sliding backwards since then. Faith in the state is very low down here. The move ins from Westchester are way over stated. Moreover, all the homes priced over 5 million to 25 million back in 2008 are worth 30 to 50% less today. No recovery for big ticket homes down here since 2008 unless you have a direct view of the ocean.

Spec house building is very flat as well. Lots of projects started in 2012 eventually sold for underwhelming prices in 2016 and that has lead to a correction with fewer specs going on today than 5 years ago.

Everyone that can afford 2m home knows that CT has a debt bomb on par with Puerto Rico and therefore all we have are reluctant buyers coming in expecting to lose and doing it because for now they happen to be lucky enough to have a good job where the risk is worthwhile.

One thing the statistics dont show is how many home sales have been to holding companies for rental portfolios. In my part of town, probably 30% of the single family home sales during the recovery have been to portfolio builders who rent the homes out. Yes, that is right, buying older $1 to 1.5 million homes which are turned to rentals for 6k to 9k a month. While the renters rarely stay more than 2 years, the homes also rarely stay empty more than a month between tenants.

As for Putterman, ugh- not a fan.... he’s just another “writer” ready to throw dirt on the grave. Mike Anthony and Fuller remain the fairest writers.

Explains a bunch. HOWEVER … the dive in values and demand in Westchester is real. ARE empty nesters from Westchester buying Condos in downtown Stamford? Because it doesn't appear they are even going to be built in Westchester markets.

 

[Exit 4]

Explains a bunch. HOWEVER … the dive in values and demand in Westchester is real. ARE empty nesters from Westchester buying Condos in downtown Stamford? Because it doesn't appear they are even going to be built in Westchester markets.

There are no condos to buy in Stamford unless you want something 40 years old. There hasn't been a new condo building since 2006 or so. Its all rental product.

Now the rental boom in Stamford is pretty good - very good new household creation by New England standards. However mysteriously our employment numbers for lower FF County remain below the 2008 peak. The wind down of GE, GE Capital, Xerox, UBS, General RE and hedge funds in general have not been fully replaced by the emergence of Charter, NBC Sports, Indeed, etc. So it is posited that the super majority of new households in Stamford are commuting or telecommuting to Manhattan. The MTA trains right now are crazy full all day long.

But the take away here should be that people really aren't interesting in buying. Buying remains soft, renting remains strong. Why "buy in" to CT's long term problems.

 

[businesslawyer]

When are you two meeting at the score board to settle this; at the Wagner game? Or perhaps AD David Benedict will ask you move it to mid season so it can be a draw when we hit the mid season blues...

And while I envision the fists flying, I could this "descending" into a real old time debate. Wear some Abe Lincoln era garb to ham it up.

If they went at it at halftime of a game, at least there would be a good chance that we could see someone wearing UConn blue actually hit an opponent.

 

[Exit 4]

If they went at it at halftime of a game, at least there would be a good chance that we could see someone wearing UConn blue actually hit an opponent.

Ooph.

But wait, who is the opponent, Whaler or Pudge? I expect Pudge to be armored up with textbooks for shields.

 

[whaler11]

When are you two meeting at the score board to settle this; at the Wagner game? Or perhaps AD David Benedict will ask you move it to mid season so it can be a draw when we hit the mid season blues...

And while I envision the fists flying, I could this "descending" into a real old time debate. Wear some Abe Lincoln era garb to ham it up.

I had detached retinas in both my eyes in the last year. My days of non-verbal sparring is over.

Without me to amp some of you guys up how would you even get fired up for the season

 

[whaler11]

Much to chew on here- but i’ll zero on real estate. As a resident of lower FF county for 18 years and avid real estate watcher - I can tell you that real estate around here has been soft for three years. We tanked in 2008, had a nice recovery by 2013 with homes under 2.5 million rebounding nicely and anything within a mile or so for the Long Island sound, then crept slowly up until around 2016 and been sliding backwards since then. Faith in the state is very low down here. The move ins from Westchester are way over stated. Moreover, all the homes priced over 5 million to 25 million back in 2008 are worth 30 to 50% less today. No recovery for big ticket homes down here since 2008 unless you have a direct view of the ocean.

Spec house building is very flat as well. Lots of projects started in 2012 eventually sold for underwhelming prices in 2016 and that has lead to a correction with fewer specs going on today than 5 years ago.

Everyone that can afford 2m home knows that CT has a debt bomb on par with Puerto Rico and therefore all we have are reluctant buyers coming in expecting to lose and doing it because for now they happen to be lucky enough to have a good job where the risk is worthwhile.

One thing the statistics dont show is how many home sales have been to holding companies for rental portfolios. In my part of town, probably 30% of the single family home sales during the recovery have been to portfolio builders who rent the homes out. Yes, that is right, buying older $1 to 1.5 million homes which are turned to rentals for 6k to 9k a month. While the renters rarely stay more than 2 years, the homes also rarely stay empty more than a month between tenants. Of course your typical house renter is someone that just took a job in NYC from someplace afar or from overseas.

As for Putterman, ugh- not a fan.... he’s just another “writer” ready to throw dirt on the UConn grave. Mike Anthony and Fuller remain the fairest writers.

If you are buying a home in Connecticut - buy something you like because it’s not an investment it’s just where you live.

I saw a couple of condos this weekend listed at prices that were so low as to be baffled. The condo market in Central CT is even worse than the single family market.

If it ain’t in Glastonbury - good luck.

 

[businesslawyer]

Ooph.

But wait, who is the opponent, Whaler or Pudge? I expect Pudge to be armored up with textbooks for shields.

-
They will both be wearing blue, so I'll take whomever gets hit and goes down as the opponent.

By the way, fully agree with your analysis of the FF County market.

 

[Waquoit]

I had detached retinas in both my eyes in the last year.

That doesn't sound good. if you don't mind me asking, was it due to some kind of trauma?

 

[whaler11]

That doesn't sound good. if you don't mind me asking, was it due to some kind of trauma?

Nope just genetically predisposed to it happening and they happened to go within 6 months of each other.

One is mostly good, the other is not - already has laser surgery again since the second surgery to try and limit retinal fluid leaking. Need at least one cataract surgery and most likely two - but not healed enough yet to have those.

 

[uconndogs]

All the best with that Whaler. Does not sound like fun at all.

 

[Exit 4]

Let’s just remember that if we drop out of the AAC there are several schools that wouldn’t think twice to take our space.

 

[Ldandy]

That doesn't sound good. if you don't mind me asking, was it due to some kind of trauma?

I assumed it happened while watching the Memphis Game. The defense caused plenty of eye trauma that day...

 

[Pudge]

Let’s just remember that if we drop out of the AAC there are several schools that wouldn’t think twice to take our space.

Exactly

That league/conference has overperformed. Better than what you could have projected. Memphis & UCF & Houston & Temple ... best they have been in decades. UConn has not played very well; and we just had awful hires in PP & Diaco.

The TV/Media Revenue still is stupidly disparate from the P5. Though apparently rising several times in this new contract.

The AAC - while we moan - has not been a bad landing place for BE driftwood.

 

[Alum86]

I wanna rip my eyeballs out if soccer is on. But if I get the gist of this Sunderland thing and equate it to AAC football.... we would have dropped to the MAC 2 years ago, then the Atlantic 10 or Ivy last year?

 

[whaler11]

I wanna rip my eyeballs out if soccer is on. But if I get the gist of this Sunderland thing and equate it to AAC football.... we would have dropped to the MAC 2 years ago, then the Atlantic 10 or Ivy last year?

In a model that is 53 billion times better than American sports - in English soccer there are 4 professional levels. Premier League/Championship/League 1/League 2.

Every year the best teams from a division advance to a higher division and the worst teams fall a division. If you fall out of League 2, it’s falling into a non-league semi-pro level.

The top teams obviously cant be promoted instead they play in special European super leagues with the best teams from other countries.

Imagine if a September Orioles/Rangers series was about staying in MLB or dropping to the International League.

Sunderland essentially dropped from MLB to AAA to AA before they got their footing.

UConn football would be in Division II at this point.

 

[LIuconn]

Imagine if a September Orioles/Rangers series was about staying in MLB or dropping to the International League.

It would be a beautiful thing. No more franchises. Each team would be its own business, free to sign endorsement deals as it sees fit and rise/fall as their leadership allows.

 

[hardcorehusky]

In a model that is 53 billion times better than American sports - in English soccer there are 4 professional levels. Premier League/Championship/League 1/League 2.

Every year the best teams from a division advance to a higher division and the worst teams fall a division. If you fall out of League 2, it’s falling into a non-league semi-pro level.

The top teams obviously cant be promoted instead they play in special European super leagues with the best teams from other countries.

Imagine if a September Orioles/Rangers series was about staying in MLB or dropping to the International League.

Sunderland essentially dropped from MLB to AAA to AA before they got their footing.

UConn football would be in Division II at this point.

This was perfect until the UConn jab. Too bad there wasn't relegation in College Football. Then the annual dregs of each conference would be relegated. Rutgers would be at club sport at this point.

 

[whaler11]

This was perfect until the UConn jab. Too bad there wasn't relegation in College Football. Then the annual dregs of each conference would be relegated. Rutgers would be at club sport at this point.

It’s not a UConn jab. Just what a similar system would look like. Although they probably would have been able to stay up in FCS. They have beaten URI and Holy Cross.

 

[Pudge]

The fact is ... it’s a asymmetrical comparison.

The true Sunderland metaphor is watching the anguish of their fan base as they drop & realize the non-football components that screw them - despite so many good things the club possesses. Including rabid fan passion.

In UConn, you are not simply discussing Football. It’s an entire Athletic Department + (I’d argue) the Growth & Profile of the University. Academic + Brand.

Unlike Rutgers. Unlike Northwestern (Putterman). Unlike BC or Wake or Washington Stare ... UCONN has Championship pedigree & excellence in many sports. And a Market WE could capture - for the overall College industry. We got screwed. And it’s not purely HIRE of Diaco or PP.

So Sunderland. Watch as the weekly Father & Son Live each game as if it’s oxygen. In March, we can hope we rise in Football. Hurley is the Answer. And Geno lives forever. (And isn’t that Baseball Hook C interesting)

 

[Fairfield_1st]

Back to the topic for a sec (sorry to interrupt). Just binge watched the series and really liked it. I found the glimpses behind the scenes and interactions of the fan base very interesting. Chris Coleman almost getting into a fight with a fan who called him a [male genitalia with a pr] was great. Coleman had only been coach for 6 games (I think that's what he said). Definitely recommended.

 

[ZooCougar]

And the difference, of course, is that in English football teams can buy their way to the top and often do. All you need is a billionaire oligarch to take up your cause.

As a model for the UConn Huskies FB team, it does not quite work. UConn's oligarch backers are few and far between.

Well, that’s not what’s happening at Sunderland.

 

[ZooCougar]

I wanna rip my eyeballs out if soccer is on. But if I get the gist of this Sunderland thing and equate it to AAC football.... we would have dropped to the MAC 2 years ago, then the Atlantic 10 or Ivy last year?

No. We’d be in Division II.

 

[ZooCougar]

The fact is ... it’s a asymmetrical comparison.

The true Sunderland metaphor is watching the anguish of their fan base as they drop & realize the non-football components that screw them - despite so many good things the club possesses. Including rabid fan passion.

In UConn, you are not simply discussing Football. It’s an entire Athletic Department + (I’d argue) the Growth & Profile of the University. Academic + Brand.

Unlike Rutgers. Unlike Northwestern (Putterman). Unlike BC or Wake or Washington Stare ... UCONN has Championship pedigree & excellence in many sports. And a Market WE could capture - for the overall College industry. We got screwed. And it’s not purely HIRE of Diaco or PP.

So Sunderland. Watch as the weekly Father & Son Live each game as if it’s oxygen. In March, we can hope we rise in Football. Hurley is the Answer. And Geno lives forever. (And isn’t that Baseball Hook C interesting)

At least Promotion/Relegation is a meritocracy. How many of the P5 conferences have dead weight that should have been relegated ages ago?