OT: Stock trading | Page 44 | The Boneyard

OT: Stock trading

the Q said:
Yeah I have one huge loss I bought right before the plague hit (MAC) that could cover most of my gains in my brokerage account

I may do that and hold some big time cash for what should be at least another small dip with some lockdowns coming
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I think the expected lockdowns are already factored into the market as it typically looks out 6 months or greater. I think money will remain in the market but bounce around between sectors. I’ll look for opportunities to rebalance my portfolio to be at least 30% recovery and the rest tech. Right now it’s probably 85/15.
 
tentoes4rings said:
I think the expected lockdowns are already factored into the market as it typically looks out 6 months or greater. I think money will remain in the market but bounce around between sectors. I’ll look for opportunities to rebalance my portfolio to be at least 30% recovery and the rest tech. Right now it’s probably 85/15.
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There’s no way it’s already factored in when we’re getting into the pre plague numbers again
 
tentoes4rings said:
We started discussing this in another thread so I decided to start a new thread. Would love to know what sectors and stocks people are in, with successes and if you want to share, bad trades or holds. My brief story below:

Traded a lot from 99-01 but volatility of Dot Com Market collapse forced me out with a decent profit. Fast forward19 years, I dove back in at the bottom in March. Had some success trading Comcast the first week, got caught in a bad trade with Citrix. Had an initial wishlist of NFLX, DOCU, Roku and Comcast. Didn’t pull the trigger quickly enough and watched most run away. Roku and Gartner I’ve been in and out of but just can’t seem to win on them. Two big winners have been DocuSign and Five Nine Inc (FIVN). I’m out now except for a small position in DocuSign, as I expect tech stocks to sell off soon and want to be ready to buy on dip.

Stocks Im looking at adding:
MSFT
AMZN
FB
ROKU
TWLO
FIVN
BX (Blackstone)
Tesla
OKTA
PENN
Walmart
CCL (Carnival)
IT (Gartner)
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Hope someone took your advice. This portfolio (equal weight of each) would be up 74.8% since May 8th. Total market is up 27.21 from that same date so you outperformed the significantly.
 
the Q said:
There’s no way it’s already factored in when we’re getting into the pre plague numbers again
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Well what’s the market doing? It’s telling you otherwise. In March there was absolute uncertainty and that fear caused historic havoc. With three vaccines in the pipeline I think investors are looking past how bad the next few months could potentially be, with immense optimism about Q2 and beyond. The market will tell us who’s right.
 
DaveHuskiesFan said:
Hope someone took your advice. This portfolio (equal weight of each) would be up 74.8% since May 8th. Total market is up 27.21 from that same date so you outperformed the significantly.
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Ha, thanks. Of course I shifted considerably from that list, adding and subtracting along the way. Happy to say it lead to better gains than that list thanks to overweighting on Docu, timing TSLA well and a few other moves. I enjoy sharing names with each other, I’ve learned about some good names from the board.
 
tentoes4rings said:
Well what’s the market doing? It’s telling you otherwise. In March there was absolute uncertainty and that fear caused historic havoc. With three vaccines in the pipeline I think investors are looking past how bad the next few months could potentially be, with immense optimism about Q2 and beyond. The market will tell us who’s right.
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I’m just saying that it’s been irrationally climbing forever months with zero justification. If there’s another lock down it’s likely going down again, but I said it wouldn’t be match bad again
 
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the Q said:
I’m just saying that it’s been irrationally climbing forever months with zero justification. If there’s another lock down it’s likely going down again, but I said it wouldn’t be match bad again
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Honestly, I’ve been expecting a selloff since last Friday so I’m happy we got a little more cushion against a pullback, I agree that things look overbought right now. It was a head scratcher to me in the Summer when Covid cases kept spiking and the market kept going up. We’ve seen record numbers of cases recently and the market hasn’t flinched. I just think we should be more concerned about stocks selling off due to being overbought more than more lockdowns from COVID.
 
I added Transocean to my stock market challenge last week, and thought I did the same in my brokerage acct. damn, the brokerage account buy didn't go though.

RIG has become damn near a penny stock for a while, and is up 37% in three days.
 
Scot-e said:
I believe if you chose NOT to have two factor security you can still sign up for Coinbase- I might be wrong- anyone?
XRP is on a rip- prob be able to buy in at some point if it corrects a little before continuing to run. We have been waiting for a protracted bull market and this could be it - if not there should be some times where market corrects and allows a little lower entry point on some projects- however it might keep running. Best thing to do is nibble on them over time so you can DCA any fluctuations if you want to play it safe.
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Where do you think a good buy price is for XRP? What are your projections for it?
 
Tenspro2002 said:
I sold LUV, CCL, and C on Friday. I feel sick.
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I did the same after the vaccine news. Made a bunch, left some on the table. Played the conservative way and took profits. I've made peace with it, buts it tough to watch.
 
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Scot-e said:
Best thing to do is nibble on them over time so you can DCA any fluctuations if you want to play it safe.
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^^^^^^ THIS. This is how you play the crypto market. Buy and sell in many small amounts to conservatively ride the ebbs and flows. However, if this bull run is totally legit, alts may just keep running up. But who knows? If BTC retraces, everything else will too.
 
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tentoes4rings said:
Honestly, I’ve been expecting a selloff since last Friday so I’m happy we got a little more cushion against a pullback, I agree that things look overbought right now. It was a head scratcher to me in the Summer when Covid cases kept spiking and the market kept going up. We’ve seen record numbers of cases recently and the market hasn’t flinched. I just think we should be more concerned about stocks selling off due to being overbought more than more lockdowns from COVID.
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Yeah, I don’t wanna get political, I guess the reality is a threat of a nationwide lockdown is still many Months away when you consider the lawsuits/injunctions/appeals that would come after.
 
When I first started learning about finance and investing I was always taught that markets are driven by emotion. With all the technical analysis that goes along with prudently investing, it was the human element that is most significant, especially in the short-term. As I've gotten older and maybe a bit wiser I am starting to see the wisdom in that. Markets react day-to-day based on market sentiment, a human factor. I firmly believe that over the long-term it is ultimately earnings and resulting cash flows that determine intrinsic value. Over the long-term the emotional factor gets tampered down, but day-to-day and now even moment-to-moment market sentiment drives the bus and I don't think the current sentiment has much if anything to do with intrinsic value......especially with this market.
 
uconndogs said:
When I first started learning about finance and investing I was always taught that markets are driven by emotion. With all the technical analysis that goes along with prudently investing, it was the human element that is most significant, especially in the short-term. As I've gotten older and maybe a bit wiser I am starting to see the wisdom in that. Markets react day-to-day based on market sentiment, a human factor. I firmly believe that over the long-term it is ultimately earnings and resulting cash flows that determine intrinsic value. Over the long-term the emotional factor gets tampered down, but day-to-day and now even moment-to-moment market sentiment drives the bus and I don't think the current sentiment has much if anything to do with intrinsic value......especially with this market.
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Wasn’t this way when I was learning it at UConn in the 80s. No internet. The average person didn’t see news until it showed up in WSJ or IBJ the next day. It was highly technical and large daily movements were extremely rare. Stock prices tended to move in very small increments.

Ever since the first dot.com boom in the 90s it has been different. It still blows my mind that AOL bought Time Warner, a vastly more valuable company in every way except emotion driven market cap. I did math once that showed that AOL had to grow at 20% a year for something like 50 years to justify its price. I think it’s better now than it was then, but there’s still a lot of emotional buying. There are companies now who realistically can never be worth what their market cap suggests.

Currently I’ll grab those emotion based stocks now and then. Moderna, that FUV (Arcimota) stock I sold this week. Playing a short term rise and then dump it. But mostly I stick to companies that have strong businesses and which I expect to survive or gain on competition in difficult times. MOAT is an ETF with a similar strategy.
 
HuskyHawk said:
Wasn’t this way when I was learning it at UConn in the 80s. No internet. The average person didn’t see news until it showed up in WSJ or IBJ the next day. It was highly technical and large daily movements were extremely rare. Stock prices tended to move in very small increments.

Ever since the first dot.com boom in the 90s it has been different. It still blows my mind that AOL bought Time Warner, a vastly more valuable company in every way except emotion driven market cap. I did math once that showed that AOL had to grow at 20% a year for something like 50 years to justify its price. I think it’s better now than it was then, but there’s still a lot of emotional buying. There are companies now who realistically can never be worth what their market cap suggests.

Currently I’ll grab those emotion based stocks now and then. Moderna, that FUV (Arcimota) stock I sold this week. Playing a short term rise and then dump it. But mostly I stick to companies that have strong businesses and which I expect to survive or gain on competition in difficult times. MOAT is an ETF with a similar strategy.
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I'm from that same era and I think you are exactly right regarding the internet accelerating volatility based on emotional responses. I also think that valuations now are not as crazy as they were with the internet bubble in the 90s. That said, I have little doubt there is a correction coming in tech or at least in a good swath of the tech sector. As for going in and out of these positions trying to follow momentum.......I think it's fun, but so are blackjack and craps.

Thanks for the post.
 
uconndogs said:
I'm from that same era and I think you are exactly right regarding the internet accelerating volatility based on emotional responses. I also think that valuations now are not as crazy as they were with the internet bubble in the 90s. That said, I have little doubt there is a correction coming in tech or at least in a good swath of the tech sector. As for going in and out of these positions trying to follow momentum.......I think it's fun, but so are blackjack and craps.

Thanks for the post.
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Similar era. Another huge difference has been how people trade compared to back then. We had brokers we needed to call to place trades, and the fees were extremely high. When I first started, it was $220 to make a round trip trade! Now, no fees and we can do it on our phones. Night and day difference from the stodgy pre internet market.
 
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tiger8mush said:
So how does a newbie purchase $PLTR? Looks like i can't get it with my new TD Ameritrade account.
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Hopefully you were able to make that purchase @ 18.
8940FB6F-9BC1-48BE-BAD9-21F8CBADAD7E.jpeg
 
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I got in at 18. Want to add more, just have a problem with the 60B valuation already. Scares me a bit. Huge winner lately for sure. JMIA has been under the radar but it has doubled from 18 in a couple weeks! Was all the way down to 7 a couple months back.
 
tentoes4rings said:
Similar era. Another huge difference has been how people trade compared to back then. We had brokers we needed to call to place trades, and the fees were extremely high. When I first started, it was $220 to make a round trip trade! Now, no fees and we can do it on our phones. Night and day difference from the stodgy pre internet market.
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That's a great point. The friction costs are gone and, of course, technology makes everything much easier and faster. Everything else being equal, I would think those two factors increase volatility since trading volumes are some much higher.
 
Curious what moves you guys have been doing recently. I’ve been shifting a little more away from tech to be more balanced this week:

Added: DIS, ULTA
Added to: NIO, TSLA, RUN, JPM

So far it’s working as recovery worked yesterday and tech is working today. Not huge days the past two days but steady gains.
 
tentoes4rings said:
Curious what moves you guys have been doing recently. I’ve been shifting a little more away from tech to be more balanced this week:

Added: DIS, ULTA
Added to: NIO, TSLA, RUN, JPM

So far it’s working as recovery worked yesterday and tech is working today. Not huge days the past two days but steady gains.
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What’re your thoughts on PINS? It’s been on a crazy run these last few months.
 
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tentoes4rings said:
I got in at 18. Want to add more, just have a problem with the 60B valuation already. Scares me a bit. Huge winner lately for sure. JMIA has been under the radar but it has doubled from 18 in a couple weeks! Was all the way down to 7 a couple months back.
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Got PLTR @ 9.23

Anyone get LGVW?
Heard about Butterfly deal and jumped in. Will LGVW get involved with other 4catalyzer companies rothberg has based in Guilford, CT like this new in home test Detect?

www.courant.com

Connecticut-based company will soon introduce an at-home COVID-19 test that could make detection easy

A company based in Guilford plans to soon distribute an at-home COVID-19 test that promises accurate results within minutes. The company, known as Detect, is a venture of scientist and entrepreneur…
www.courant.com www.courant.com
 
Below are the first "get my feet wet" trades I've made, based on (a subset of) your recommendations the past few days/months. The only trade not showing is LVGO, which I didn't sell before they were bought out and lost $50-60.
In total, the $500 investment is currently valued at around $880. Thanks everyone!

SYMBOLQtyCostMarket Value
NIO796.74370.85
PLTR11205.26310.97
WORK5128.58178.70
 
tiger8mush said:
Below are the first "get my feet wet" trades I've made, based on (a subset of) your recommendations the past few days/months. The only trade not showing is LVGO, which I didn't sell before they were bought out and lost $50-60.
In total, the $500 investment is currently valued at around $880. Thanks everyone!

SYMBOLQtyCostMarket Value
NIO796.74370.85
PLTR11205.26310.97
WORK5128.58178.70
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WORK had a big bump today on news that Slack may get bought by Salesforce
 
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