XLCenterFan
CT, NE
- Joined
- Feb 25, 2018
- Messages
- 3,538
- Reaction Score
- 13,456
I swear Zoom hasn’t had a losing day since I bought it. What a no-brainer.
Some stocks simply won’t be effected. Some, like banks, may be. But that’s OK. Take the information you have and invest wisely. On the tax aspect, I’m an investor and even I think capital gains taxes should be raised. Having investment income is a ridiculous luxury.Lots of chatter about the polls regarding the upcoming election effecting the markets...something to think about. Anticipating higher income tax and corporate taxes could be leading the sell off. If my comment is too political, please just let me know and I will delete it to avoid going to the cess (we don’t want this thread going there).
I swear Zoom hasn’t had a losing day since I bought it. What a no-brainer.
The market continues to defy all logic. I think some people are in for a big surprise when Q2 / Q3 earnings drop later this summer / this fall. Then again, this market is defying all logic so I am probably wrong.
Largest cash on sideline position ever. Pain trade has been higher to this point, market always seemingly inflicts max pain either direction (everyone bullish before drop).The market continues to defy all logic. I think some people are in for a big surprise when Q2 / Q3 earnings drop later this summer / this fall. Then again, this market is defying all logic so I am probably wrong.
Largest cash on sideline position ever. Pain trade has been higher to this point, market always seemingly inflicts max pain either direction (everyone bullish before drop).
Same, I've got my biggest cash position ever. I've considered selling literally everything and then buying again when the bottom eventually falls out of the market.
It fetus logic bc this is another Fed induced bubbleThe market continues to defy all logic. I think some people are in for a big surprise when Q2 / Q3 earnings drop later this summer / this fall. Then again, this market is defying all logic so I am probably wrong.
Trying to get some more before then. Link too.Ethereum 2.0 testnet launch scheduled for June 29th
Trying to get some more before then. Link too.
I’m not in cash but saying this General sentiment being poor has led to record levels of cash on the sideline. This is a large reason why the market has marched ahead. So much worry and market climbs a wall of worry.Same, I've got my biggest cash position ever. I've considered selling literally everything and then buying again when the bottom eventually falls out of the market.
Totally agree. so few stocks going up before today even but the ones that are just continue flying higher. Market pricing in new normal even before Covid spikes.I’m not selling a share. My stocks don’t really need a growing consumer base. If I owned stocks that needed people to spend more, that would be one thing, but the ones I own count on people spending differently and on people teleconferencing. How people spend and communicate is changing - there’s money to be made in that.
I might have been salty, as I did the "smart" thing of taking meager profits when I had bought stocks like Amazon at $1600 and Tesla at $350 in March expecting a dead cat bounce and not expecting the market to go straight up to 27,500. Long term holders were rejoicing. Now they're like, why the heck did I hold? My point was, in a typical boring market you try to outsmart it to make money. Right now, you're best bet is just going along for the ride.So we agree.
I’ve been inclined to agree with you but instead I’ve just sold some stuff off like some Amzn, TSLA etc. Fortunately I got out of FB after hours last night at 232. I doubled down on small to mid cap work from home beneficiaries recently and it’s paying off. DOCU, FSLY and LVGO were big today. I’d raise some cash but also transition more to companies with lesser than $50 B valuations and stay with what’s hot. With no sports for another month and many of us working from home, I think segments of the market will stay propped up because the stock market has become a big part of many people’s lives the past 3 months and I don’t think people are ready to leave that.Same, I've got my biggest cash position ever. I've considered selling literally everything and then buying again when the bottom eventually falls out of the market.
I’m not selling a share. My stocks don’t really need a growing consumer base. If I owned stocks that needed people to spend more, that would be one thing, but the ones I own count on people spending differently and on people teleconferencing. How people spend and communicate is changing - there’s money to be made in that.
The valuation thing is complex to say the least. When we look at forward looking earnings and valuations of companies like Zoom, they don’t make a lot of sense. Then again, as far as present value goes, all that matters is people keep buying it and pushing the price up. I sold Zoom 115 points ago because I thought it had its run. This week I sold the majority of Docusign fearing a pullback, when in reality it has never disappointed me. I remember a CEO years ago saying he never left a party that still had alcohol. I try to subscribe to that now. I’ll stay at the work from home party until the booze run out, but that could be months from now.Yeah my whole portfolio and investment thesis is around B2B enterprise tech companies (CRM, QLYS, MITK) and technology driven consumer financials (SQ, PYPL). Have been in all of these companies, most of them for years, before the virus came around. I've been really recently interested in companies like Zoom, Okta, DocuSign, etc. but the valuations have kept me out.
Are you worried about the valuation of some of those WFH companies? My goal is to invest in companies that can return me 10X+ over the long run. But a company like Zoom's market cap is up to $70B trading over 100X revenue ($700M in revenue) it doesn't seem like it can really hit those types of returns by looking at other well established players in the space; enterprise tech companies like IBM is a $100B cap ($77B in revenue - 1.3X), Cisco $190B cap ($50B in revenue - 4X). Unless Zoom is going to be the next Microsoft...
Not saying you're wrong at all, everyone has their own style and pallet for risk, but just curious what you think about valuations / help me think differently about these companies to see the financial opportunity you see.
Yeah my whole portfolio and investment thesis is around B2B enterprise tech companies (CRM, QLYS, MITK) and technology driven consumer financials (SQ, PYPL). Have been in all of these companies, most of them for years, before the virus came around. I've been really recently interested in companies like Zoom, Okta, DocuSign, etc. but the valuations have kept me out.
Are you worried about the valuation of some of those WFH companies? My goal is to invest in companies that can return me 10X+ over the long run. But a company like Zoom's market cap is up to $70B trading over 100X revenue ($700M in revenue) it doesn't seem like it can really hit those types of returns by looking at other well established players in the space; enterprise tech companies like IBM is a $100B cap ($77B in revenue - 1.3X), Cisco $190B cap ($50B in revenue - 4X). Unless Zoom is going to be the next Microsoft...
Not saying you're wrong at all, everyone has their own style and pallet for risk, but just curious what you think about valuations / help me think differently about these companies to see the financial opportunity you see.
It could never truly end. Even when this pandemic subsides, people are going to have become normalized to these services and brands. The "low-tide" for the DocuSigns and Zooms of the market is way higher than it ever was. Also, companies are going to lean on them more, realizing they don't need as much of an "office presence." I could even see Zoom becoming similar to a FB, where users have their own page and profiles, and there's a feed, and stuff like that. People have even turned Venmo into a verb, using it as they have Google. That's big.I’ll stay at the work from home party until the booze run out, but that could be months from now.