OT: Russell Westbrook . . . Oh My!

[champs99and04]

Westbrook is definitely a guy who hunts his stats. A lot of guys do, though. What he's doing is still amazing.

But Harden is the MVP. Even looking past the advanced stats, there is just a difference in a way those players are defended and in the way they contribute to efficient offense. Harden gets a lot of hockey assists. Russ isn't giving it up unless he thinks he's getting an assist out of it. Harden assists on a lot of three pointers. Russ less so, partially because the team around him isn't equipped to shoot as many threes but also because he's just not the pick and roll player Harden is. The Rockets are on pace to make the most threes in NBA history, IIRC, and it's all because of Harden. He's a magician with the basketball. No way I'd have Russ over LeBron either.

 

[auror]

He has a higher ts% and more win shares, he has led the rockets to having the second best offense in the NBA. I don't buy westbrooks teammates being bad, he just doesn't make them better the same way harden does.

RW has an insane usage rate, literally the highest of all time. Which is to say, he's the biggest part of his team's offense of any player of all time. Due to skill/efficiency curves, your TS% will go down as a function of your usage going up. Consider Dean Oliver:

RW is over 0.4. It's almost 0.42 (literally off the chart). His O-rating is still 112! Harden's is at 119 on only 34%. Impressive, but well within the realm of the others (literally on the Durant curve). RW's is on another planet in the context of the others having extreme dropoffs when approaching 0.35.

Individual players' win shares are biased towards strong teams because of the way it calculates marginal points. And it fails to take into account the skill curve and defense warping of someone at this extreme usage% when assigning credit, so rewards efficiency too linearly (ie RW gets less credit for his offense in win shares because he's somewhat inefficient without considering his gigantic usage% and the boost that has on his teammates who get to only take easier shots, and whom then receive higher proportion of team's win shares because they're now more efficient scorers, essentially punishing RW for benefiting his teammates).

As to your 2nd point, D'Antoni is well known for being a great offensive coach when he has the personnel who can make it work. Not to mention the heavy hand that Morey takes in ensuring his team's efficient shot selections. The Rockets also have like 5 guys who can hit 3's accurately.

Who can shoot on the Thunder? Just Oladipo at 38%, really. Roberson is a black hole in that regard. It's not a total surprise the Thunder have played better (same winning % as Rockets) since acquiring McDermott as another shooter off the bench. It's not that RW teammates are bad, but they mostly can't shoot nor create their own shots. Steven Adams is not that guy, and he's their 2nd best offensive player probably (with Dipo and Kanter). Donovan does them no favors either.

Harden assists on a lot of three pointers. Russ less so, partially because the team around him isn't equipped to shoot as many threes but also because he's just not the pick and roll player Harden is.

To me, it is LESS impressive if the guy is assisting on a lot of 3pt shots vs. otherwise (despite it being smarter basketball, Morey strikes again). By their nature, 3-pointers are often assisted. If your team is making a lot of 3s, you're just going to have more assists if you have the ball a lot. As you mentioned, if RW's teammates could shoot better, he'd have substantially more assists. This should not be an argument against Russ.

 

[Walker11]

Presti has not done RW any favors with that roster construction. Adams is a good PnR match but the 2 through 4 couldn't be a worse fit for his skillset. Imagine him with the snipers the Rockets have? He manages to get to the rim at will with a packed paint every night.

I'm loving Hardens season and am watching him right now. It's amazing how much I used to detest the aesthetics of his game and now the Rockets are a must watch. Dantoni and Morey deserve a ton of credit for putting him in the perfect system with the perfect role players. I can't forget how MD made Lin look like an All Star.

Screw the stats, I'd give the award to Kawhi. He is the best defender and 2 way player in the league. I also irrationally like him because of his demeanor. I can't believe how good he has become in Iso. But he's not going to win. I'm rooting for Russ. Why not?