OT- NBA Trade Deadline 2019

the Q

BY Misanthrope
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There aren't 1-2 can't miss projects by my definition and everyone but yours. The problem I have is you unjustifiable broaden optimistic draft views (these will always exist, do you follow college recruiting?!) and you incorrectly define can't miss. Show me articles or mentions of guys as can't miss? Maybe there is an occasional accolade thrown out with qualifiers. For example; "Ben Simmons cannot shoot and may never be a good shooter, but he is a can't miss prospect at the PG position." - Jay Bilas, filling air time during 4hr draft TV show.
But consensus can't miss guys are extremely rare & this whole stupid debate is you throwing water on everyone BECAUSE EVERYONE IS SO UNPRECEDENTEDLY HIGH ON ZION! The basis of your point is so many people are so high on Zion versus other annually highly ranked/valued draft prospects = your objection almost defines the difference between future superstar billing vs can't miss.

Ultimately it is semantics. Instead let's identify Zion as a pre-draft 'generational talent'. LeBron is/was a generational talent before the draft as was AD. No one since on a pre-draft basis. Giannis is discussed in this thread as he emerged as a generational talent after the draft, as some athletes do (Tom Brady).
Nothing is guaranteed, even LeBron (I was skeptical cuz I dislike high school to pros). Zion has the potential to be a generational talent, is THE consensus number 1, barring injury almost certain future as an all-star and multiple all-NBA team selections. HOF is a museum in the distant future. To live up to his hype Zion has to play basketball very well, dominate games, contend for and or win ROY, championships, MVPs etc..
Combining analytics and scouting, Zion and brow are the 2 best prospects since Lebron. And I don’t think they’re wrong at this point.
 

nelsonmuntz

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There aren't 1-2 can't miss projects by my definition and everyone but yours. The problem I have is you unjustifiable broaden optimistic draft views (these will always exist, do you follow college recruiting?!) and you incorrectly define can't miss. Show me articles or mentions of guys as can't miss? Maybe there is an occasional accolade thrown out with qualifiers. For example; "Ben Simmons cannot shoot and may never be a good shooter, but he is a can't miss prospect at the PG position." - Jay Bilas, filling air time during 4hr draft TV show.
But consensus can't miss guys are extremely rare & this whole stupid debate is you throwing water on everyone BECAUSE EVERYONE IS SO UNPRECEDENTEDLY HIGH ON ZION! The basis of your point is so many people are so high on Zion versus other annually highly ranked/valued draft prospects = your objection almost defines the difference between future superstar billing vs can't miss.

Ultimately it is semantics. Instead let's identify Zion as a pre-draft 'generational talent'. LeBron is/was a generational talent before the draft as was AD. No one since on a pre-draft basis. Giannis is discussed in this thread as he emerged as a generational talent after the draft, as some athletes do (Tom Brady).
Nothing is guaranteed, even LeBron (I was skeptical cuz I dislike high school to pros). Zion has the potential to be a generational talent, is THE consensus number 1, barring injury almost certain future as an all-star and multiple all-NBA team selections. HOF is a museum in the distant future. To live up to his hype Zion has to play basketball very well, dominate games, contend for and or win ROY, championships, MVPs etc..
Zion = Next LeBron. Got it.

I like wailing on the 2013 draft because EVERYONE missed Giannis.

2013 NBA draft grades: Pick-by-pick analysis

Draft picks that got an "A" Grade:

Ben McLemore
Trey Burke
Lucas Nogueira
Rudy Gobert

A-

Shane Larkin
Dennis Schroeder
Otto Porter

Ya think a few of these picks were overrated? Bucks got a "B" for their pick of Giannis.

2014 wasn't any better:

2014 NBA draft pick-by-pick grades and instant analysis

A+

Rodney Hood ("a mix of Rashard Lewis and Danny Granger" what?)

A:

Julius Randle
Dario Saric
Zach LaVine
Jusuf Nurkic
Gary Harris
Clint Capela
Kyle Anderson

A-:

Jabari Parker
Joel Embiid
Dante Exum
Noah Vonleh
T.J. Warren
James Young
Shabazz Napier
P.J. Hairston

In a draft where two of the best players, Spencer Dinwiddie and Nikola Jokic, fell to the second round, SIXTEEN teams got an "A+", "A" or "A-" grade from the USA Today for their draft picks. Doesn't that seem a little ridiculous?

In the USA Today's defense, they actually did better than usual in their draft grades here. 7 of the 8 players receiving an "A" are starters today.
 
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You watching tonight? You keep making the same point - yes there are highly rated recruits and draft prospects that miss every year. Nice try moving the goalposts again to LeBron or bust, yet I've also mentioned AD every time, Duncan etc.

Aren't you a Syracuse fan ? If so the crow has gotta be hard to keep down.
 

nelsonmuntz

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You watching tonight? You keep making the same point - yes there are highly rated recruits and draft prospects that miss every year. Nice try moving the goalposts again to LeBron or bust, yet I've also mentioned AD every time, Duncan etc.

Aren't you a Syracuse fan ? If so the crow has gotta be hard to keep down.
What is your logic in this argument? That I am a Syracuse fan and therefore I have a secret anti-Zion agenda? Do you realize how crazy every part of that argument is?
 
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What is your logic in this argument? That I am a Syracuse fan and therefore I have a secret anti-Zion agenda? Do you realize how crazy every part of that argument is?
Pretty sure point is Zion was great last night, applies regardless.

But keep up the entertaining projection. It's a madcap adventure to see you find & twist the least essential part of any response. EDIT: Saying that I claim your anti-Zion agenda is secret is top-notch.
 
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nelsonmuntz

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There are three certainties on sports message boards when talking about young talent:

1) Overrating - The new kids (whether pro rookies or college freshmen) are going to have a HUGE impact immediately and will all be once in a generation talents.

2) Underrating - That same class will be written off as busts when they don't perform at a high level in their rookie or freshman year. Fans give up easily.

3) Lying about the overrating and underrating - Way more people will claim they knew all along that some star player was going to be a huge star, then actually knew all along that player was going to be a huge star.

I knew the destination of this thread when I started the debate on Zion Williamson.

People always overrate the caliber of players in any NBA Draft. The reality is that there will be about 4 players in the draft that ever play in an all-star game. There will be maybe 15-17 that ever become starters for a whole season, and there are 1 or 2 that will be enshrined in Springfield. Maybe Zion will be the Hall of Famer. Maybe it will be Barrett. Maybe it will be some European that no one is paying attention to right now. We don't know, and even the educated guesses are pretty shaky.
 

the Q

BY Misanthrope
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There are three certainties on sports message boards when talking about young talent:

1) Overrating - The new kids (whether pro rookies or college freshmen) are going to have a HUGE impact immediately and will all be once in a generation talents.

2) Underrating - That same class will be written off as busts when they don't perform at a high level in their rookie or freshman year. Fans give up easily.

3) Lying about the overrating and underrating - Way more people will claim they knew all along that some star player was going to be a huge star, then actually knew all along that player was going to be a huge star.

I knew the destination of this thread when I started the debate on Zion Williamson.

People always overrate the caliber of players in any NBA Draft. The reality is that there will be about 4 players in the draft that ever play in an all-star game. There will be maybe 15-17 that ever become starters for a whole season, and there are 1 or 2 that will be enshrined in Springfield. Maybe Zion will be the Hall of Famer. Maybe it will be Barrett. Maybe it will be some European that no one is paying attention to right now. We don't know, and even the educated guesses are pretty shaky.
You aren’t wrong here. But I think the break down comes from the definitions of can’t miss.

The only true can’t miss prospects I remember were

Shaq
Duncan
Lebron
Brow
Zion

The next closest was probably Oden but his knees had enough red flags that he didn’t make it.

Any of those guys could’ve been Greg oden though. On that point I do agree with you.
 
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Nelson's post above is more reasoned and generally true. Q still manage to hit nail on the head even though I've needlessly pounded it thru the wood. Zion keeps balling. He is fun to watch, everything is of course a snapshot & projection. Ie as of 3/16/19 Zion is a projected generational talent and the most est can't miss PROSPECT since AD.

I disagree on Oden, given his injury history there were a lot of questions and detractors, more similar to Embid who was even more IF healthy and IF keeps developing he CAN be....

IF healthy Zion will be. Saw a good suggestion on Twitter that Dook & UNC play a 7 game series this year for the chip.
 

nelsonmuntz

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You aren’t wrong here. But I think the break down comes from the definitions of can’t miss.

The only true can’t miss prospects I remember were

Shaq
Duncan
Lebron
Brow
Zion

The next closest was probably Oden but his knees had enough red flags that he didn’t make it.

Any of those guys could’ve been Greg oden though. On that point I do agree with you.
Shaq didn't make the Olympic team. He was too fat, couldn't shoot, and was too raw. Duncan was too slow and not athletic enough to be a true superstar. Lebron was a can't miss, but there were quite a few who thought Carmelo might be better in the long run out of that draft.

I think everyone knew Brow was going to be good, and some thought exceptional. I think Brow ends up looking a little better in this discussion because he is an all-star and so many #1 picks have been busts in recent years. FWIW, KAT has had a monster February and March, and will be one of the best centers in the league heading into next year. He was a first pick of the draft that some had semi-written off as just another good player because he took an extra year to break out.

Other "Can't Miss" prospects that I can think of from the last 20 years:

Darko Milicic - a more polished version of Kevin Garnett. Kind of Doncic before there was Doncic.

Michael Beasley - college scoring machine and an amazing athlete.

Lonzo Ball - I think people know he was a little overhyped, but he was considered a transformational player.

Jabari Parker - scoring machine that could play 3-4 positions

Joe Alexander - I don't know that people expected a superstar, but no one expected him to suck as bad as he did.

Alex Len - a lot of draft boards had him at #1 in 2013.

Good article on the 2014 draft:

Excited About The NBA Draft? Let's Revisit The Failed Promise Of The Wiggins Draft

Another one (Trigger warning, Thabeet takes a beating in this article):

Biggest NBA Draft Misses of All-Time
 
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True, but presumably the Hawks front office watched Luka play and made the decision to go for Young. It is actually great that as of this writing that could turn into a fun what-if debate for both franchises that made workable decisions. Luka is still the surer bet, but Trae as a Curry remix (not better but similar) is back on the table.
The Hawks GM told Woj in a recent interview that they would have taken Doncic over Young if they hadn't made the trade. The honesty was refreshing but kinda a stupid thing to say.
 
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I have been really tentative about Zion but he has won me over. His handle, passing and defense are way better than I thought. He just may be the best p4p athlete to ever enter the NBA. Even if he can't shoot, the guy projects to be a much better version of Draymond, who was thought to be a top 15-20 player by every analyst before this season.
 
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I like Zion, but in the history of the NBA, there has only been one Charles Barkley. I don't know how much I would want to bet on Zion being #2.
Stop it or give us a name of someone else you'd take #1?

What's the point of continually throwing cold water on the kid & everyone who is excited about him?
Stop being enthusiastic about basketball players! Don't be optimistic!

You cannot make yourself into the Alan Greenspan of irrational draft exuberance because nothing anyone says here matters a lick in terms of the market for Zion Williamson, where he gets drafted and how he performs.
 
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Stop it or give us a name of someone else you'd take #1?

What's the point of continually throwing cold water on the kid & everyone who is excited about him?
Stop being enthusiastic about basketball players! Don't be optimistic!

You cannot make yourself into the Alan Greenspan of irrational draft exuberance because nothing anyone says here matters a lick in terms of the market for Zion Williamson, where he gets drafted and how he performs.
Zion is the surefire #1 pick but I understand Nelson's hesitancy in declaring him a generational talent. Way different playing style but he probably projects to being in the Ben Simmons tier. If he can't shoot, he will never be the #1 scoring option on a championship caliber team. The guy does look like a lock to be a high impact perennial all star player.
 
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Zion is the surefire #1 pick but I understand Nelson's hesitancy in declaring him a generational talent. Way different playing style but he probably projects to being in the Ben Simmons tier. If he can't shoot, he will never be the #1 scoring option on a championship caliber team. The guy does look like a lock to be a high impact perennial all star player.
I think his upside is no more than a multi-time All-Star. I think being a serviceable 12 and 8 player that is too big for his joints and susceptible to injuries is also a possibility. Williamson's days of matching up with skinny 6'7 power forwards are just about over. 4's are 6'10 to 7' at the next level, and chiseled after years of NBA level conditioning. They will give him space on his jumper, and he is going to have a tough time posting up players that are 4+ inches taller than him. On defense, 4's with range will shoot right over him because he doesn't have an exception wingspan for his height, and he is susceptible to getting posted up. I also think he has to lose at least 20 pounds to play in the NBA. His body will take a pounding over 82 games, and the knees or ankles could go at his weight.

The pro-Williamson argument is that his athleticism is enough to overcome all this. To that, I say that there has only been one Charles Barkley in NBA history.

I think with Williamson's hype, a team might be willing to trade a borderline all-star for him. If I were the Knicks or the Cavaliers' GM, and I could get Bradley Beal + Washington's #1 for Williamson, I would take it in a heartbeat. Magic Johnson may make a stupid offer for Williamson too. I would at least dangle the pick out there and see what I could get for it.
 
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Thomas Robinson who the Celtics just signed after he's played overseas is a decent comp, cautionary tale for Zion. Robinson is different in that I recall he came out of nowhere and had one really great year, but in that year he was dominating the college game with athleticism that few had.

I think the epilogue is Robinson was doing it on extraordinary motor versus smaller players and his newfound motor ran for just that one season. Robinson as a frosh averaged 2.5pts/2.7boards, soph 7.6/6.4 & then as a junior 17.7ppg & 12 boards with his minutes doubling. Contrast on Zion is he has always been a top ranked player and put up numbers everywhere. Likewise Zion has a more diversified skillset, better passer, defender etc.

But after that one year I thought Robinson would be a good pro and had upside. Ironically Robinson had good length, rumored 7'+ wingspan. Ultimately the size arbiter in the NBA comes down to heart. You need superior athleticism, but lots of guys have that without the work ethic and competitive edge to keep pushing. And there are always undersized guys at their positions in the NBA succeeding.
 

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