OT: NBA Offseason

[nelsonmuntz]

I would be willing to make a hefty bet that the Lakers end up a Top-4 seed in the West. AD to me is the 3rd most talented player in the league and LeBron is still the best player when completely healthy. It’s either them or the Clips for the Chip, unless some unforeseen injuries happen.

I think the difference between me and the Laker lovers is not so much how I feel about LeBron or AD, because everyone thinks those guys can play. The difference is that I don't think the rest of the NBA sucks, which one would have to believe to think the Lakers could take that team anywhere near a championship. The Nuggets and Jazz are really good teams, and Rockets and Portland are solid 50ish win teams. San Antonio and New Orleans are one player outperforming from challenging for a Top 4 seed in the West. Warriors will be very good when Thompson returns.

It's also not unforeseen when a 35 year old player gets hurt. LeBron could miss 20 games this season without having a serious injury, just having annoying pulls and strains that keep him out.

 

[navery12]

Ranking the NBA's Top 10 Superstar Pairings Post-Free Agency

Dynamic duos are everywhere right now as players questing for rings are taking more control over their careers and trying to find ways to pair up. Some are new, some are old and some are renewed...

bleacherreport.com

 

[Huskyforlife]

I think the difference between me and the Laker lovers is not so much how I feel about LeBron or AD, because everyone thinks those guys can play. The difference is that I don't think the rest of the NBA sucks, which one would have to believe to think the Lakers could take that team anywhere near a championship. The Nuggets and Jazz are really good teams, and Rockets and Portland are solid 50ish win teams. San Antonio and New Orleans are one player outperforming from challenging for a Top 4 seed in the West. Warriors will be very good when Thompson returns.

It's also not unforeseen when a 35 year old player gets hurt. LeBron could miss 20 games this season without having a serious injury, just having annoying pulls and strains that keep him out.

Its like nobody read about the Jazz/Nuggets/Rockets/Blazers/Clippers improvements this off season. I'm not betting on 34 year old LeBron to carry an average(at best) supporting cast to the top half of the West. Plus AD never finishes a season completely healthy. This is all without mentioning how not great of a fit guys like rondo and Kuzma are next to LeBron, if he plays his traditional style.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Its like nobody read about the Jazz/Nuggets/Rockets/Blazers/Clippers improvements this off season. I'm not betting on 34 year old LeBron to carry an average(at best) supporting cast to the top half of the West. Plus AD never finishes a season completely healthy. This is all without mentioning how not great of a fit guys like rondo and Kuzma are next to LeBron, if he plays his traditional style.

It's not just the things I dislike about the Lakers. These other teams are really good.

The Jazz and Nuggets are both better than the Lakers, with lower injury risk. My only issue with both those teams is their coaches. I don't hate Malone or Snyder, but don't think either is a great coach. But then I don't like Vogel that much either, so I guess the Lakers don't even have an advantage at HC.

 

[auror]

I do not think AD and an aging LeBron are good enough to win 50 games in the west with that supporting cast, and I don't even have them in my Top 8 if I have to force rank the West because I don't think LeBron will make it through the season.

The Lakers have one of the 5 best players in the league just now entering his absolute prime. You're underrating AD.

AD took this roster to the 6th seed in the West 2 years ago, one of the best years for the conference. The Western Conference had 10 teams with 42+ wins and 9 teams won 46+. I went back about 15 years and no other year had teams 9 and 10 both so strong, especially in addition to a 65 win-team (+ the all-time great Warriors).

And he still took them to the 6th seed with Emeka Okafor in the starting lineup. (And they were better after Boogie got hurt with Mek, 17-8 after the All-Star break, so don't try that argument). Look at that roster!

So you're taking AD, but better now that he's closer to age 27 (and rested from coasting last year), and upgrading from Jrue Holiday to LeBron James. And you're projecting a median case scenario where they miss the playoffs? Come on dude.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

That was not a terrible team. They had Cousins for over half the season, and he, Davis and Holliday each averaged 19 ppg or more. Mirotic was a solid mid season addition, and Rondo was 2 years younger than he will be for next season's Lakers.

Davis has been to the playoffs twice in his career. He is good, he is not dominant.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

The Horford contract seems more insane the more I think about it. Horford signed a 4 year, $109 million contract with the 76ers. For comparison, look at the 4 year, $52 million deal that Brook Lopez signed with the Bucks. Horford got Tier 1 star money even though he is on the downslope of his career. Look at last season's stats:

Lopez: 12.5 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 1.2 apg, 2.2 bpg in 28.7 mpg. 36.5% from 3, 61.3% from 2, 84.1% from the line.
Horford: 13.6 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 4.2 apg, 1.2 bpg in 29.0 mpg. 36.0% from 3, 60.4% from 2, 82.1% from the line.

Horford rebounding stats are a little better than Lopez's, and he has much better assist numbers than Lopez, although Horford's stats are somewhat impacted by style differences between Bucks and Celtics. Lopez is a better shot blocker.

When looking at contracts to 30+ year old NBA players, last season's stats don't tell the whole story. Lopez is not only 2 years younger, but has a lot less mileage than Horford. Lopez has played on bad teams most of his career, so he didn't log a lot of playoff minutes. Horford has been in the playoffs most of his career. Going into next season, Lopez has played a total of just over 23 thousand minutes in his career, while Horford has played over 30 thousand minutes. That is a lot of extra basketball on a 33 year old body.

 

[djct1999]

The Horford contract seems more insane the more I think about it. Horford signed a 4 year, $109 million contract with the 76ers. For comparison, look at the 4 year, $52 million deal that Brook Lopez signed with the Bucks. Horford got Tier 1 star money even though he is on the downslope of his career. Look at last season's stats:

Lopez: 12.5 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 1.2 apg, 2.2 bpg in 28.7 mpg. 36.5% from 3, 61.3% from 2, 84.1% from the line.
Horford: 13.6 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 4.2 apg, 1.2 bpg in 29.0 mpg. 36.0% from 3, 60.4% from 2, 82.1% from the line.

Horford rebounding stats are a little better than Lopez's, and he has much better assist numbers than Lopez, although Horford's stats are somewhat impacted by style differences between Bucks and Celtics. Lopez is a better shot blocker.

When looking at contracts to 30+ year old NBA players, last season's stats don't tell the whole story. Lopez is not only 2 years younger, but has a lot less mileage than Horford. Lopez has played on bad teams most of his career, so he didn't log a lot of playoff minutes. Horford has been in the playoffs most of his career. Going into next season, Lopez has played a total of just over 23 thousand minutes in his career, while Horford has played over 30 thousand minutes. That is a lot of extra basketball on a 33 year old body.

The Sixers roster is both extremely talented and poorly constructed.

 

[the Q]

The sixers really needed korver.

The bucks getting him is huge for them. He can’t play point like Brogdon could shift over to, but he provides another shooter to surround Greek freak with.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Just saw that, Bucks got a little stronger and kept him away from Philly. They're clear favorites in the east

I think keeping him away from Philly is more important than getting the Bucks another shooter.

 

[Rocktheworld]

I think keeping him away from Philly is more important than getting the Bucks another shooter.

And frankly I wonder if philly was just (oddly) desperate to get Horford on their side, given he was the only one who gave Embiid any real trouble in the East. The move from basketball and financial perspectives doesn’t make much sense otherwise

 

[auror]

Korver is washed. He's not having an impact. He can't guard a marble statue at this point.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Lowe: Why Kawhi Leonard's power move was a watershed moment

Player empowerment is reaching new peaks. How will the league and the players respond?

www.espn.com

Good article on the impact of players dictating where they go. It also alludes to another issue, which is that the peripheral characters, like agents, television and marketing relationships, want the stars in the destination cities like LA, NY, and Miami. ESPN is openly rooting for Giannis to go anywhere but Milwaukee when his contract is up. I can't find a mention of Giannis in a single offseason article on ESPN that doesn't refer to him potentially leaving the Bucks in two years. I don't know how Giannis stays in Milwaukee when literally every entity in and around the NBA wants him to leave.

 

[the Q]

Lowe: Why Kawhi Leonard's power move was a watershed moment

Player empowerment is reaching new peaks. How will the league and the players respond?

www.espn.com

Good article on the impact of players dictating where they go. It also alludes to another issue, which is that the peripheral characters, like agents, television and marketing relationships, want the stars in the destination cities like LA, NY, and Miami. ESPN is openly rooting for Giannis to go anywhere but Milwaukee when his contract is up. I can't find a mention of Giannis in a single offseason article on ESPN that doesn't refer to him potentially leaving the Bucks in two years. I don't know how Giannis stays in Milwaukee when literally every entity in and around the NBA wants him to leave.

It’s pretty simple:

He takes the most money.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Bucks, Clippers top Caesars' season-win totals

Caesars Sportsbook has posted season-win totals and the Bucks are at an NBA-best 57 wins, while the Clippers lead the Western Conference at 55.5.

www.espn.com

Caesars sports book setting win over/under lines. It seems like there is a fair amount of parity projected. There are a couple I don't like:

Thunders: 28 - this seems like a typo. The Thunder are not going to suck, and have a lot of upside on the roster. 35 wins is completely realistic.

Lakers: 51.5 - seems high. dependent on AD and Lebron not getting hurt despite likely playing a ton of minutes.

Spurs: 43.5 - seems low. Spurs had a good offseason, get Murray back, and still have Pop at coach.

Mavericks: 41 - No idea. Mavericks have the biggest potential range of outcomes of almost any team in the NBA next season. I wouldn't be shocked if they won 48, and I also wouldn't be shocked if they won 31.

 

[uconnbaseball]

Memphis over 25.5

They are always a pain to play in Memphis (hard getting up for them), and they have a surprisingly good amount of depth / solid rotation players, so an injury to anyone other than JJ won't hurt them. Their young core is impressive. I think they can hit 30 wins so long they can take care of the Suns, crappy East teams, and pull random upsets at home.

Lakers under 51.5

They don't have the depth to overcome injury. Avery Bradley, Javale McGee, Rajon Rondo etc. wouldn't make the rotation for teams like Denver and LAC, yet are asked to play big roles for the Lakers. They're also exploitable defensively on the front line outside of Davis: LeBron, McGee, Cousins, and Kuzma are big guys that will be eaten alive by skilled big guys. They will make the playoffs IMO, but 45-47 wins is more realistic than 50+.

 

[johnhuskies95]

Seeing those win totals just shows how much better the West is than the East. If the Celtics were in the West they'd have a really tough time making the playoffs yet they could possibly end up being the 3rd seed in the East.

 

[Seattle Guy]

Lakes at 55 easy. Lebron is rested, and AD has something to show.

 

[traitor71]

Lakes at 55 easy. Lebron is rested, and AD has something to show.

I'm not sure about that. This is the era of load management, and there aren't many easy stops out West. Things are going to be pretty crazy out there night to night.

 

[navery12]

 

[superjohn]

 

[Rocktheworld]

Thank god the torn ACL didn’t happen in his shoulder

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Could there have been a reason that no one wanted to sign Cousins? Maybe an overweight and out of shape player coming off an achilles injury was an injury risk. The Lakers have 4 guys on their roster that don't belong in the G-League, but "experts" are still talking about this team like it is a title contender.

 

[uconnbaseball]

Could there have been a reason that no one wanted to sign Cousins? Maybe an overweight and out of shape player coming off an achilles injury was an injury risk. The Lakers have 4 guys on their roster that don't belong in the G-League, but "experts" are still talking about this team like it is a title contender.

Lakers are a worse version of the 2017-2018 Pelicans. That was a pretty good team with a nice starting lineup and no depth to speak of that made it to the 2nd round of the playoffs. That's the upside of this Lakers team.

 

[Huskyforlife]

Could there have been a reason that no one wanted to sign Cousins? Maybe an overweight and out of shape player coming off an achilles injury was an injury risk. The Lakers have 4 guys on their roster that don't belong in the G-League, but "experts" are still talking about this team like it is a title contender.

In his defense, he looked much slimmer in pictures I saw of him.