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Message: [QUOTE="UcMiami, post: 2135319, member: 199"] I have thought about this: Uconn over the last 4 years in regulation has an MOV range of +65 to -6 (Baylor) There average MOV is mid thirties and they have had 6 loses -2, -6, -1 plus -2, -2 in overtime, and -9 in double overtime. In addition to the losses they have three games decided by less than 10 points 2, 3, 6 all occurring this year. And one final number the MOV against the best teams (ranked) even with the losses is somewhere north of +20 and there have been about 55 of those games. At the other end of the spectrum there have been probably about 80 wins of greater than 40 points (61 in the last 112 games.) What that tells me is when they bring their A game which they almost always do, the games are not close unless the opponent brings their A++ game, and when they occasionally bring less than their A game, there are very few teams that can compete with them anyway. Those six losses represent complete outliers in the same way that wins against top 15 ranked teams by 40+ points represent outliers and occur at about the same frequency. So for the game to be close (under ten points) means that Uconn is not playing its A+ game and probably not even its A game, more likely a B or B+ and in the case of Tulane further down the chain. And that the opponent is playing their A game and more likely their A+ or better game. Just on close games in that scenario Uconn has gone 3 and 3 with three ties in regulation. That all three ties then ended in a loss in OT or DOT is not that significant. And that actually understates their record because in those games against really good teams, when Uconn was not playing its best basketball there are also a bunch of 10 and 11, and 15 point wins. My conclusion is that to just look at OT and say, well Uconn has had a problem in tight games is to not understand that getting to overtime has been 'against the odds' and we wouldn't be having this conversation if instead they had lost a few more games by 10 points over that time period. What may be more incredible than 111 games in a row, or 10 straight is that in the last 4 years they have never lost a game by double digits, and in the last decade that has happened 3 times. ND did it by 15 in 2012, Stanford did it by 12 in 2011, and LSU did it by 23 in 2007. When Uconn ends up playing an overtime game, it is because they are not playing well and the other team is playing very well. To then expect them to flip the tables in 5 minutes when they haven't done it for the first 40 is not logical. [/QUOTE]

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