OT Losses. Why?

[UConn82]

All,

ESPN showed a graphic that we have lost 6 OT games in a row. I am relatively new to UConn basketball (less than 10 years).

Can the more experienced BYer's comment on why we keep losing in OT? This is too many in a row to be a coincidence.

Is it that we are relatively inexperienced in playing tight, end-of-game situations? Does even the great, great Geno and his staff have a weakness here?

Thoughts?

 

[Sonny44]

The former I think.

 

[BugsyCT]

Better to be 11-0 in NC games

 

[connie]

Shooting from the hip, I regard this as statistically unreliable given the relatively small number of data points. After all, we are talking about completely different teams in terms of player personnel. Likewise, opponents. The only constant is part of the coaching staff-primarily Gino and CD. Maybe there is some argument to be made that there is something about the effect of team "culture" or coaching decisions that are made in overtime games. Who knows? Close games often come down to a flip of the coin. Sometimes you get tails six times in a row. Without more, that doesn't tell us that the coin is loaded.

 

[UConn82]

Thank you. Chances of 6 heads (or tails) in a row for a fair coin is less than 2%. This makes me wonder.

Let me be clear -- in no way am I trying to criticize anyone, least of all Geno. I am just trying to understand.

 

[oldude]

I do think there is something to the fact that UConn plays very few games that come down to the last few possessions, and OT games by their very nature, require a team to play possession by possession.

I would contrast UConn with TN that has won and lost many close games over the past few seasons, including wins this year over both national finalists.

 

[UcMiami]

I have thought about this: Uconn over the last 4 years in regulation has an MOV range of +65 to -6 (Baylor) There average MOV is mid thirties and they have had 6 loses -2, -6, -1 plus -2, -2 in overtime, and -9 in double overtime. In addition to the losses they have three games decided by less than 10 points 2, 3, 6 all occurring this year. And one final number the MOV against the best teams (ranked) even with the losses is somewhere north of +20 and there have been about 55 of those games. At the other end of the spectrum there have been probably about 80 wins of greater than 40 points (61 in the last 112 games.)

What that tells me is when they bring their A game which they almost always do, the games are not close unless the opponent brings their A++ game, and when they occasionally bring less than their A game, there are very few teams that can compete with them anyway. Those six losses represent complete outliers in the same way that wins against top 15 ranked teams by 40+ points represent outliers and occur at about the same frequency. So for the game to be close (under ten points) means that Uconn is not playing its A+ game and probably not even its A game, more likely a B or B+ and in the case of Tulane further down the chain. And that the opponent is playing their A game and more likely their A+ or better game. Just on close games in that scenario Uconn has gone 3 and 3 with three ties in regulation. That all three ties then ended in a loss in OT or DOT is not that significant.

And that actually understates their record because in those games against really good teams, when Uconn was not playing its best basketball there are also a bunch of 10 and 11, and 15 point wins.

My conclusion is that to just look at OT and say, well Uconn has had a problem in tight games is to not understand that getting to overtime has been 'against the odds' and we wouldn't be having this conversation if instead they had lost a few more games by 10 points over that time period. What may be more incredible than 111 games in a row, or 10 straight is that in the last 4 years they have never lost a game by double digits, and in the last decade that has happened 3 times. ND did it by 15 in 2012, Stanford did it by 12 in 2011, and LSU did it by 23 in 2007.

When Uconn ends up playing an overtime game, it is because they are not playing well and the other team is playing very well. To then expect them to flip the tables in 5 minutes when they haven't done it for the first 40 is not logical.

 

[UConn82]

UcMiami,

Yours in an excellent post. Thank you very much.

 

[Paesano]

Geno notoriously plays a short bench. That hurts in OT due to tired legs. But, it also makes for a team that is very tough to hang with. So, we lose OT games but we win championships.

 

[UcMiami]

Just thought I would add some more specific context to my above post - Uconn/ND has happened 22 times in the last decade by far the most of any opponent and during that time and they account for half of the string of six OT loses
Uconn/ND: Uconn MOV in regulation wins: 14.9 (15 wins) ND MOV in regulation wins 6.5 (4) with 3 OT/DOT wins. More instructive of those 15 Uconn wins only two were less than double digit, a 3 and a 9 point win. Of the ND regulation wins only one was double digit - 13, the rest were 1, 2, and 9.

Even if you drop out the first three years (5 Uconn wins) the average MOV in Uconn wins was 13.3 with again only the 2 single digit wins. If you go one step further and drop out the 2011 season when ND finally broke through and won the last of 4 contest, Uconn's MOV in wins actually goes up to 14 with the closest win being 9 points and ND's actually goes down in regulation wins to 5.3.

The record in that seven year period when Uconn and ND basically were never out of the top 3 in rankings 7 to 3 with 3 OT wins by ND, and if you ran a Massey's series during those seven years it would probably have been about 7-3 as Uconn was much more consistently #1 in the rankings. And the overall MOV counting OT games as '0' for that seven year period 6.3 which is about the point spread for Massey of a 70% win probability. That ND actually went 7-6 during that time suggests they had 'Uconn's number' or Uconn consistently played below their standard. The interesting thing is that in that 7 year period all of the OT wins and all 6 of ND's wins came in the two year stretch at the beginning when ND went 6-2 (the 7 of 8 that kept being quoted included the last game from the previous season and was created before the last game of the second year.)

So three of the sequence of 6 OT losses are part of a string of 7 losses in 8 games to the same team - a team that knew how to beat those particular Uconn teams consistently over a two year period.

Interesting also to note that the starting PG and Center on the first of those two years were sophomores Hartley and Dolson after the team leader Moore had graduated. And they had a undersized 'power forward' starter in 5'11" junior Kelly Faris. They went 33-5 losing in the semi-final. (They went on to win the next two NCs with the help of a stellar recruiting class! )