OT: latest ESPN conspiracy theory

[CL82]

I added 'relative to the market' specifically to note I realize this.

Market value is the value determined by willing buyer and a willing seller. You don't get market value in a monopoly. We'll know "maket value" of the Big East's broadcast rights in the next four months.

 

[whaler11]

Whaler -

Just look at that chart I put up there.

Of the top 20 highest cost subscriber fees out there - 15 are under $1 per month. 18 are under $2. 19 are under $3. ESPN is over $5.

You want to know why Disney profits are now completely, entirely driven by ESPN? look right at that chart. $5.06, $2.71, $0.67 = $8.44 per MONTH from every single television household in the country that has ESPN services.

ESPN fees are more nearly 6x more expensive than the average cable television subscriber fee. That's called an asset bubble.

"Economists use the term "bubble" to describe an asset price that has risen above the level justified by economic fundamentals, as measured by the discounted stream of expected future cash flows that will accrue to the owner of the asset."

Stream of expected future cash flows....that will accrue the owner.

Any competition - any at all - to ESPN, will at the very least halt the rise in subscriber fees in the future, until the inflated price of ESPN is less disparate, and therefore discount the expected future cash flows that will accrue the owner of the asset.

This is why Syracuse and Pitt are in the ACC now, and WVU is in the Big 12.

http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/pdf/eufm_siegel.pdf

Our disagreement isn't these points. It's if there is any competition coming in the near to medium term. I don't see any competitors until someone has enough quality properties. There aren't enough to buy in the medium term to create a legitimate competitor.

The Big East lineup isn't even set. If the other leagues see fit to completely destroy the Big East with ESPN support if they move to NBC, it can be done in 3-4 phone calls. It could be done in two but I doubt the ACC would land on 15 or the Big 12 on 11.

 

[whaler11]

It's called intense local, regionalized marketing. It's the complete opposite of the broadbased national subscriber fee model. You charge a basic, subscriber rate to a local population on par with other services on television (or already existing), and you market the hell out of your TV product to local advertisers. It works. There are pockets of it happening all over the country right now around sports. It takes a lot more work and effort,at multiple levels of management and workers, rather than having a bunch of corporate tycoons sitting around a conference table high up in manhattan skryscaper with a wonderful view of the park deciding on how much the cable bills will be that year across the entire country.

Somebody said I was real Machiavellian the other day - well I'll post this again:


"There is nothing more difficult to plan, that generates more doubt of success, and is more dangerous to manage, than the creation of a new system. The innovator has the enmity of all who profit by the preservation of the old system and only lukewarm defenders by those who would gain by the new system." - Niccolo Machiavelli


Well, there's a lot of enmity, to the preservation of the old system - and it's the entire Disney corporation. There are other corporate giants out there though, and we're all just pawns. Entire state universities. The entire multi-billion dollar college football industry. A single pawn.

Well if you read Larry Scott RE the Pac 12 network, you'll find he and his league believe the opposite on regional coverage.

 

[Carl Spackler]

Well if you read Larry Scott RE the Pac 12 network, you'll find he and his league believe the opposite on regional coverage.

I'd be happy to read what you're talking about please direct me to it. Thanks.

 

[Carl Spackler]

Our disagreement isn't these points. It's if there is any competition coming in the near to medium term. I don't see any competitors until someone has enough quality properties. There aren't enough to buy in the medium term to create a legitimate competitor.

The Big East lineup isn't even set. If the other leagues see fit to completely destroy the Big East with ESPN support if they move to NBC, it can be done in 3-4 phone calls. It could be done in two but I doubt the ACC would land on 15 or the Big 12 on 11.

Fair enough. I think the Big East is much more solid than you do, but I'll leave my craziness as to why that is, for another day. I've written it all before anyway.

The big east as it was projected to be in 2010, right now going into 2012, with Syracuse, Pitt, WVU and TCU, certainly would have been a foothold, for a network looking to build competition in the media corridor that is the eastern U.S. at this point in time.

We all know how that turned out, and who was involved in making it happen.

But the kill shot wasn't on target, and the big east regrouped, and it's entirely possible, no - probable - that the new configuration is going to be able to give a competitor to ESPN an even stronger foothold getting into the market, because of the timing and evolution of the broadcasting industry, and what has value now.

Karma.

 

[Jimmy Serrano]

This is going to be a loooooooong 2 weeks........

 

[Carl Spackler]

Here is a very interesting read on the "Sports Rights and the Broadcast Industry".

http://files.campus.edublogs.org/ca...orts-rights-and-broadcast-industry-Cave-1.pdf

What's even more interesting, is that when you read it, you realize that it was published a decade ago. Sports products have been bought up like hotcakes since. Collegiate sports aren't part of this article, and are a slighlty different animal than pro-sports, but well - whatever. read it if you want.
Just realize that when you pay your cable bill every month, the majority of your fees for channels, is taken up by ESPN - for now.

The question really, is two fold - how much are people willing to pay for ESPN in the future, as compared to how much they'll be willing to pay for something else.

Enough of this, for now.

 

[whaler11]

Fair enough. I think the Big East is much more solid than you do, but I'll leave my craziness as to why that is, for another day. I've written it all before anyway.

The big east as it was projected to be in 2010, right now going into 2012, with Syracuse, Pitt, WVU and TCU, certainly would have been a foothold, for a network looking to build competition in the media corridor that is the eastern U.S. at this point in time.

We all know how that turned out, and who was involved in making it happen.

But the kill shot wasn't on target, and the big east regrouped, and it's entirely possible, no - probable - that the new configuration is going to be able to give a competitor to ESPN an even stronger foothold getting into the market, because of the timing and evolution of the broadcasting industry, and what has value now.

Karma.

I'll dig up Scott later but in short they wanted national coverage as opposed to their recent past with regional coverage.

They haven't killed the Big East and it's NBC's best near term opportunity - but if Louisville and UConn aren't involved there isn't much left. Those two schools keep the hybrid model alive, the Catholics are gone without them and the football league already existed as CUSA and died on the vine. Notre Dame is immediately in play as a non-football member for the ACC.

NBC is not making a dent with Houston, Boise, SMU, SDSU, UCF, Navy, Temple and Memphis. I don't come from the BC school of thought so I would hope Rutgers would land on their feet.

 

[Carl Spackler]

I'll dig up Scott later but in short they wanted national coverage as opposed to their recent past with regional coverage.

They haven't killed the Big East and it's NBC's best near term opportunity - but if Louisville and UConn aren't involved there isn't much left. Those two schools keep the hybrid model alive, the Catholics are gone without them and the football league already existed as CUSA and died on the vine. Notre Dame is immediately in play as a non-football member for the ACC.

NBC is not making a dent with Houston, Boise, SMU, SDSU, UCF, Navy, Temple and Memphis. I don't come from the BC school of thought so I would hope Rutgers would land on their feet.

No use arguing anymore here, we disagree on the speculative value of the conference right now, and the security of the conference. The reality of both, will be evident before end of football season.

Sorry for the ESPN label. WOn't do it again.