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- May 6, 2015
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Good questions. In the last 2 years, fundamentals in the stock market have diverged from valuations. There are several indicators that the stock market is overvalued. Further, we have been running at 0% interest rates, or thereabout, for quite some time, and the Fed has been monitizing debt at an unprecedented rate. When housing starts printed high last week, stocks went down, which is Alice in Wonderland level backwards. They went down because stock investors believed that improved housing conditions portend an improving economy, which would force the Fed to raise interest rates for the first time in 5 or so years. That raise would cause a flight from stocks, because many believe that the stock market has only remained high because the Fed has been aggressively goosing the economy. Flight from stocks will result in flight into commodities. Thus, buy silver. Of course, there's always the "economy is going to crap hard" angle too, which is the obverse. Seems to me that the Fed is in a corner, and getting out will be good for metals, whether they get out willfully or not. Just my opinion. I've been wrong before.Based on what, and why now? Which factors support the view silver may not continue trending down? Demand analysis?