OT: Hurricane Dorian | The Boneyard

OT: Hurricane Dorian

Already a 4, ahead of schedule. Gonna be a bad one. My mom's on the gulf coast outside of Tampa and told me yesterday that the grocery stores have been ransacked. Can't imagine the Atlantic coast...
 
Hoping it goes north and doesn't directly hit the US coastline anywhere.

That's my hope with family all up and down the Florida coast
 
I have family on the coast that got the hell outta dodge and family in Orlando that are going to ride it out. Also fam in Tampa area that aren’t that concerned. I told them safer than sorry but they’re on opposite coast and not as worried for some stupid reason.
 
This will likely be like Floyd in 1999, head up the East coast, but never make landfall in Florida, scaring people into Southeast Georgia (took me 8 hours to drive 80 miles) - hopefully it will make a big right turn and head out to sea. We have flood insurance but will have to evacuate, living in a flood zone if the order comes.
 
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For a big storm, I feel like this one sort of snuck up on us down here. Now it's still a few days away from really hitting, but it already feels like a ghost town. I was working in Palm Beach yesterday and people were really stressed. I think it will hit further up the coast, but it's a bitch of a storm so there is going to be widespread impact.
 
Live in central Florida not far from Disney. New models have Dorian hugging the coast and heading for the Carolinas. May brush the coast line up around Jacksonville. Better than the forecast that had Dorian making landfall around Del Ray then coming up the center of the state like Irma did.
 
UConnMike04 said:
I have family on the coast that got the hell outta dodge and family in Orlando that are going to ride it out. Also fam in Tampa area that aren’t that concerned. I told them safer than sorry but they’re on opposite coast and not as worried for some stupid reason.
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The reason they're not as worried is they won't see significant winds or tidal surge. They're biggest concerns should be any tornadoes in the outer bands of the storm and probably logistical stuff on the ground like gas and groceries as other parts of the state getting hit harder will have higher priority. I have a sister in the Orlando area and she is staying put. I'd do the same if I were in Orlando or the west coast of Florida.

With the counter clockwise rotation you always want to be between 12 and 6 o'clock and have that moisture from the ocean already dropped over land.
 
Chin Diesel said:
The reason they're not as worried is they won't see significant winds or tidal surge. They're biggest concerns should be any tornadoes in the outer bands of the storm and probably logistical stuff on the ground like gas and groceries as other parts of the state getting hit harder will have higher priority. I have a sister in the Orlando area and she is staying put. I'd do the same if I were in Orlando or the west coast of Florida.

With the counter clockwise rotation you always want to be between 12 and 6 o'clock and have that moisture from the ocean already dropped over land.
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If you mean you want to be on the left side of the eye as it moves north, then yes you're right. You do not want to be on the right side of the eye as it moves north along the coast, that would be very bad. Most people will be on the left side because that's where the coastline will be if Dorian stays just offshore. However if you live on an island well offshore get out now. Conversely as the storm continues with a westerly track being north of the eye will get the worst of it while south of the eye will not be as bad. The actual size of the eye and the storms pressure gradient also has a big effect on how fast the wind speeds are. Pressure gradient is how fast the pressure drops from the outer bands to the eyewall.
 
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huskyrob1 said:
If you mean you want to be on the left side of the eye as it moves north, then yes you're right. You do not want to be on the right side of the eye as it moves north along the coast, that would be very bad. Most people will be on the left side because that's where the coastline will be if Dorian stays just offshore. However if you live on an island well offshore get out now.
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Yes, left side, especially inland.

The east coast of Florida, Georgian and the Carolinas may be on the left side but depending on how close to the coastline the eye is, there can/will be significant flooding as the storms whips all the water from the Atlantic up against the coast.
And it's not just the tidal surge on the coastline. All those rivers emptying in to the Atlantic essentially get stuffed as the normal flow of water in to the Atlantic is countered by the storm pushing the Atlantic water in to those waterways. Throw in 5"-6" of rain and you can get significant inland flooding.

In northern Florida you have the St. John's River, You have the Savannah at Ga/SC line and a bunch of others too.
 
'Dorian will move to 26.1N 74.0W this afternoon, 26.5N 75.8W Sun
morning, 26.7N 77.2W Sun afternoon, 26.9N 78.1W Mon morning, and
27.5N 79.4W Tue morning. Dorian will change little in intensity as
it moves to near 29.5N 80.5W early Wed, and continue northward to
near 32.0N 80.5W Thu. Dorian will move slowly across the northern
Bahamas toward Florida as an extremely dangerous major hurricane
through Mon night, then move N along the Florida E coast Tue and
Wed. Ridge remains in place across the central and eastern portion
of the basin.'
where does it hang a looey? will it hang a looey? idk, but atlantic water temps are kinda sloppy right now. a coastal creeper? it's below freezing in parts of the rockies today, so here's hoping dorian gets chased outta here. goofy or otherwise, 'canes can't shredd.
 
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Chin Diesel said:
Yes, left side, especially inland.

The east coast of Florida, Georgian and the Carolinas may be on the left side but depending on how close to the coastline the eye is, there can/will be significant flooding as the storms whips all the water from the Atlantic up against the coast.
And it's not just the tidal surge on the coastline. All those rivers emptying in to the Atlantic essentially get stuffed as the normal flow of water in to the Atlantic is countered by the storm pushing the Atlantic water in to those waterways. Throw in 5"-6" of rain and you can get significant inland flooding.

In northern Florida you have the St. John's River, You have the Savannah at Ga/SC line and a bunch of others too.
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There is another component to flooding in a hurricane that is extremely important, and it is the main reason why the deeper (deeper ........meaning the lower the sea level barometric pressure is) the storm is the greater the expected storm surge is the closer you get to the eye. That component is simple to visualize, the atmospheric pressure right under the eye is the lowest in the storm and rises as you get away from the eye, so what you get is a "mound" of water that is under the storm and it is highest right under the eye and eye wall and slopes away toward the edge of the storm. So if you have an intense Cat 5 hurricane the storm surge and that "mound of water" is correlated with how deep the storm is even if the hurricane is stationary. This component is much more important than the winds at sea level "pushing" the water around the eye, though that does add something. The great Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 was a small compact storm that had a very small eye and moved over the Keys at only 4 or 5 mph but had a huge storm surge all around it of 20 or 30 feet. It was that "mound" of water that covered the islands as it slowly moved and is irregardless of it being high tide or low tide, obviously though that "mound" has a big head start if it comes at high tide.
 
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huskymedic said:
To the experts:
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where are the waffles? I don't see any dang waffles in that pic. if I was cooped up in a room tracking 'turtlestorm' for wafflehouse inc., I would expect some waffles in front of me as I passed the time. I mean, come on, some flour, eggs, vanilla, etc., what's that cost, like fiddy cents? either way, when you do eat waffles, please remember to always use real maple syrup from new england sap farmers. it's the best!
 
UConnMike04 said:
I have family on the coast that got the hell outta dodge and family in Orlando that are going to ride it out. Also fam in Tampa area that aren’t that concerned.
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Whoa Nellie, that’s way too much family in Florida! Have they been checked? ;)
 
huskymedic said:
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Most of models do have it turning north-northwest and staying off the Florida east coast but there is still one model that has it going across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico north of Tampa. What to watch for if you're into this, is the forward speed which right now is 8mph. If it slows to a stall then it could drift very close to the Florida coast. If it keeps it's forward speed and jogs to the NW then it will miss Florida entirely. I think it might start to weaken slightly because the ocean water near the coast and around the Bahamas is a little colder than where it is now.
 
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What’s the impact on Connecticut...let’s say next Saturday afternoon? (Not meant to minimize the impact along the coast between now and then.)
 
Latest data suggests that Dorian may intensify to a category 5, despite moving over slightly colder water near the coast.
 
Dorian has indeed intensified to a category 5 hurricane. Maximum sustained winds are now 160 mph. The barometric pressure has dropped a lot (from 944mb to 927mb) which suggests a further increase in wind speed with much higher gusts and a higher storm surge.
 
Dorian still getting stronger, maximum sustained winds now at 175mph with gusts over 200mph. Pressure continues to drop, now down to 922mb, so the storm surge forecast will be raised above the mean tide. The eye has gotten slightly smaller also and has exhibited a "stadium" effect which also is bad news. I think this is going into Florida, if NOAA doesn't see a turn to the north by tonight you will see hurricane warnings in Florida. If anyone is wondering, I majored in meteorology my first two years in college, then switched majors.
 
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