OT: Heat - Thunder, who you got?

[Kitaman]

Mind says Heat, heart says Thunder.

This is the matchup the NBA wanted and many fans. Its all about how Wade plays to me. If he goes off the heat will win. He is the key to the series.

My money is on Miami, Lebron will answer critics (at least temporarily) and will not be denied. I sense a STFU moment coming up in the near future.

 

[Migs]

I think it's 3-2 Olympian advantage for the Heat, so I'll take that as the early line.

 

[jfuchs91]

LeBron v. Durant. Big 3 v. Big 3. Two young, athletic, and exciting teams that everyone loves to watch. David Stern could not be happier right now. I know as a fan, this is the most excited I've been for an NBA playoff series in a long, long time.

The Thunder are the better overall team, but I think this is the year that LeBron carries his team to his first championship. Heat in 7 in an absolute classic of a series.

 

[8893]

Heat in a walk, 4-0. LeBron scores every point, the last two of which are on a slam-dunk that is so exceptional he is retroactively named the winner of this year's slam-dunk contest.

JaYnYcE is still underwhelmed.

 

[RayRay19]

I think thabo/harden will play great d on wade. Chris bosh has to go up against ibaka who is athletic enough to chase him around the court. And durant will be playing defense on lebron. You also have perkins down low to clean up boards because he wont have to worry to much on defense. I also think the thunder are more of a unit/team than the heat. And to add to all of that, the thunder also have westbrook. I think he ends up being the difference maker in this series. I got my money on the Thunder.

 

[UConn990411]

I think the Thunder win (their role players are sooo much better), but I think this series goes the distance.

The key will be if Westbrook dominates that assclown Chalmers (which he should). If he does, the Heat have no answers.

 

[JaYnYcE]

OKC

 

[babysheep]

OKC only if they can find a way to keep LeBron out of the paint. That's the only way any team will beat Miami. Then again, OKC is undefeated at home these playoffs

 

[21Huskies]

i think OKC is the better team and over 100 games probably wins 55 of them. i think Miami at their peak is better than OKC at their peak because of Lebron/Wade/Bosh. The home court advantage clearly will help OKC as well.

ultimately it comes down to whether Miami can get help when Lebron or Wade has an off night. OKC has a bigger buffer if Durant or Westbrook is off with Harden/Ibaka/Perkins there to lift the slack.

Turnovers will be a big factor for the Thunder. they are a better offensive team than Miami, but Miami is a better defensive team... the turnovers will ultimately make the difference in my opinion.

 

[Frank Ivy]

... the turnovers will ultimately make the difference in my opinion.

I agree that turnovers are important, but I think that this series is going to come down to points. I think that, if the Heat score more points, then they are going to end up winning this thing.

 

[JaYnYcE]

I think that, if the Heat score more points, then they are going to end up winning this thing.

props to HuskyFanDan for the gif.

 

[Dogdeacon]

i think OKC is the better team and over 100 games probably wins 55 of them. i think Miami at their peak is better than OKC at their peak because of Lebron/Wade/Bosh. The home court advantage clearly will help OKC as well.

ultimately it comes down to whether Miami can get help when Lebron or Wade has an off night. OKC has a bigger buffer if Durant or Westbrook is off with Harden/Ibaka/Perkins there to lift the slack.

Turnovers will be a big factor for the Thunder. they are a better offensive team than Miami, but Miami is a better defensive team... the turnovers will ultimately make the difference in my opinion.

Is LeBron/Wade/Bosh definitely better than Durant/Westbrook/Harden?
Slight edge LeBron over Durant, Slight edge healthy Wade over Westbrook (but I think Wade isn't healthy and thefore say Westbrook is more valuable over 5-7 games), then Harden is more explosive than Bosh, Bosh might give you more on defense/rebounding side. So its about even.

Going to full team analysis including Bench:
Westbrook v Chalmers - Big Adv OKC
Wade v Sefolosha - Adv Miami
LeBron v Durant - Slight Advantage Miami
Bosh vs. Ibaka - even
Perkins vs. Haslem - even
Bench Harden/Collison/Fischer vs Battier/Miller/Jones - Big Adv OKC

Also worth noting that OKC's big front line makes Miami play Haslem&Bosh together a lot to counter the size of Perkins/Ibaka/Durant.

So UNLESS Durant totally cannot stop LeBron and is stopped by LeBron I think OKC has more significant edges and can neutralize Miami's strengths (Sefolosha on Wade, Ibaka on Bosh, Durant's scoring offsetting LeBron's). OKC should dominate the glass and it'll be really interesting and fun if both teams run. Could have a 120-118 type game?!

I really think the series might come down to the marquee matchup though and it seems to me LeBron's chances to keep Durant in check are better as Durant's only advantage is length on outside shots. If you are Miami you want Durant hoisting long jumpers. Meanwhile if you are OKC I think you are nervous about LeBron overpowering Durant and wondering if Durant & Westbrook are ready for the big stage.

Team-wise I think OKC is better and could dominate, but intangibles go to Miami. LeBron is better than Durant and he absolutely knows his legacy will be recalibrated if he wins that matchup and his team wins. So I think the LeBron from Game 6 vs. Boston shows up and the Heat win in 6.

 

[babysheep]

The thing is that Durant isn't as intense a player as LeBron has shown he can be. In the Celtics series, LeBron was constantly attacking the rim whenever he could. Durant however can have quiet spells. LBJ schooled an entire team for a series and maybe now is finally starting to realize what he's capable of. He is going to continue to attack the basket and unless OKC finds a way to stop him (without fouling), I don't see how OKC can avoid losing 4 times

 

[21Huskies]

yes, the Miami 3(at their best) are better than OKC's 3 at their best. its a question of whether Bosh/Wade are healthy and capable of being at their best. DWade had a slightly higher PER than Durant this season, just to put things into perspective. while PER isn't the be all and end all of who the better player is, it certainly gives a fair idea of the production of a player (given similar usage rates)... neither of them were close to Lebron.

As a team, i don't think it matters as much getting into players 5-8 as much as it does players 4 and 5. Guys that are going to have the ball and play alot matter... the rest are small sample size and have a lot to do with luck (does a Fisher or Miller 3 fall). And OKC clearly has a big advantage at players 4 and 5. I think Ibaka is vastly underrated and is going to be a huge piece if OKC is to win it.

Miami is one of the top defensive teams in the league. while both teams have the potential to be explosive, there is very little chance the games get to the 120-118 type score. low/mid 90's scores are much more likely, if the games are being played in the 110-120 range, Miami will be swept.

also, just to be annoying and bash on these types of comments again... if you think Lebron's legacy is on the line so he's going to play focused and better, don't you think Durant's legacy is on the line? you don't think he's going to come out as fired up/focused/whatever cliche word as Lebron? They are in the NBA finals, every guy on the team is focused on winning.

 

[Dogdeacon]

yes, the Miami 3(at their best) are better than OKC's 3 at their best. its a question of whether Bosh/Wade are healthy and capable of being at their best. DWade had a slightly higher PER than Durant this season, just to put things into perspective. while PER isn't the be all and end all of who the better player is, it certainly gives a fair idea of the production of a player (given similar usage rates)... neither of them were close to Lebron.

As a team, i don't think it matters as much getting into players 5-8 as much as it does players 4 and 5. Guys that are going to have the ball and play alot matter... the rest are small sample size and have a lot to do with luck (does a Fisher or Miller 3 fall). And OKC clearly has a big advantage at players 4 and 5. I think Ibaka is vastly underrated and is going to be a huge piece if OKC is to win it.

Miami is one of the top defensive teams in the league. while both teams have the potential to be explosive, there is very little chance the games get to the 120-118 type score. low/mid 90's scores are much more likely, if the games are being played in the 110-120 range, Miami will be swept.

also, just to be annoying and bash on these types of comments again... if you think Lebron's legacy is on the line so he's going to play focused and better, don't you think Durant's legacy is on the line? you don't think he's going to come out as fired up/focused/whatever cliche word as Lebron? They are in the NBA finals, every guy on the team is focused on winning.

On your last question, yes I do think Durant is going to be focused - but this is his FIRST time in the NBA finals and the media attention and spotlight is way brighter than anything he has ever experienced. It is LeBron's & Wade's 3rd final (2nd together) so that is a big 'intangible' advantage in my opinion. DFisch & Perk can explain the finals ropes to the youngsters a bit, but the NBA is a lot like life in that you have to first have to try and fail on the biggest stage to understand what it takes.

If Durant somehow shrugs off that pressure and makes a game winner or two that potentially has an enormous positive impact on him and arguably a negative impact on LeBron. But that's another reason I'm thinking LeBron comes thru as LeBron knows what is at stake and the downside to LeBron is unacceptable versus OKC playing with house money to a degree (they can be pretty confident that they'll be back & no one will crucify them if they lose).

 

[8893]

This is a good, quick read imo on the LeBron vs. Durant aspect of this series. I think Reilly nails it:

http://espn.go.com/espn/story/_/id/8036803/lebron-versus-durant

 

[babysheep]

also, just to be annoying and bash on these types of comments again... if you think Lebron's legacy is on the line so he's going to play focused and better, don't you think Durant's legacy is on the line? you don't think he's going to come out as fired up/focused/whatever cliche word as Lebron? They are in the NBA finals, every guy on the team is focused on winning.

I think that some guys can do something once and then it changes the way they play. I think this Boston series has shown LBJ that he can school an entire team for a whole series, and now I would not be surprised if he came into OKC ready to go all out. A lot of people think that LeBron is scared of the moment; maybe he's finally coming around. Maybe that Boston series is what it took to push LeBron into the beginning of the peak of his career, which, if true, will begin with him winning his first title. Then, all the haters will only be able to talk about his receding hairline.

 

[21Huskies]

I think that some guys can do something once and then it changes the way they play. I think this Boston series has shown LBJ that he can school an entire team for a whole series, and now I would not be surprised if he came into OKC ready to go all out. A lot of people think that LeBron is scared of the moment; maybe he's finally coming around. Maybe that Boston series is what it took to push LeBron into the beginning of the peak of his career, which, if true, will begin with him winning his first title. Then, all the haters will only be able to talk about his receding hairline.

do you remember last season? he was unreal vs Boston and Chicago and everyone said the EXACT SAME nonsense ('he gets it' 'he's turned the corner' 'he's clutch') then he laid an egg in his worst series of his life and everyone went back to the 'he can't get it done in the clutch' 'he isn't wired like the great ones' blah blah blah. its all nonsense. Lebron just had an awful series, there are no excuses and no explanations... he was just really bad. people always want to explain the unexplainable when it happens. he's right back in the same spot this year. if they lose he'll get all the same criticisms next season despite the praise he's been getting the last few days... i know for a fact, because it happened last year and he got it again this year.

 

[21Huskies]

If Durant somehow shrugs off that pressure and makes a game winner or two that potentially has an enormous positive impact on him and arguably a negative impact on LeBron. But that's another reason I'm thinking LeBron comes thru as LeBron knows what is at stake and the downside to LeBron is unacceptable versus OKC playing with house money to a degree (they can be pretty confident that they'll be back & no one will crucify them if they lose).

how many game winner's do you think guys take/hit? people get so caught up in the last 2 minutes of a game they forget the first 46 mean a hell of a lot more. very rarely do games even come down to that opportunity... the focus should be on who will be the best player all game, not on the last shot.

and OKC is a pretty decent sized favorite in the series, so i'm not buying the fact they are playing with house money. they have homecourt and they are the better team (even if its a slight advantage)

 

[JaYnYcE]

but the NBA is a lot like life in that you have to first have to try and fail on the biggest stage to understand what it takes.

Jordan tried 6 times and won 6 times. Olujuwon tried twice and won twice. If its your time, then its your time.

 

[BigErnMcCracken]

It's pretty impressive that Miami is in the finals on the strength of having 2 great players, because Wade and James are not at all complimentary pieces. And as a unit Miami rarely has any offensive cohesion whatsoever. I think OKC rolls over them.

 

[JaYnYcE]

people get so caught up in the last 2 minutes of a game they forget the first 46 mean a hell of a lot more. very rarely do games even come down to that opportunity... the focus should be on who will be the best player all game, not on the last shot.

Last shot wins championships, ask Kobe and Jordan. Heck, ask Dirk!

 

[babysheep]

do you remember last season? he was unreal vs Boston and Chicago and everyone said the EXACT SAME nonsense ('he gets it' 'he's turned the corner' 'he's clutch') then he laid an egg in his worst series of his life and everyone went back to the 'he can't get it done in the clutch' 'he isn't wired like the great ones' blah blah blah. its all nonsense. Lebron just had an awful series, there are no excuses and no explanations... he was just really bad. people always want to explain the unexplainable when it happens. he's right back in the same spot this year. if they lose he'll get all the same criticisms next season despite the praise he's been getting the last few days... i know for a fact, because it happened last year and he got it again this year.

Well every time he does something like this, is "maybe" out of the question? If he ends up choking again, then I guess we were wrong this season

 

[21Huskies]

Well every time he does something like this, is "maybe" out of the question? If he ends up choking again, then I guess we were wrong this season

no player should be judged off of 6 games of data rather that 500+ he's played besides that. its why whether he wins or loses next week, you won't hear me gloating or moaning. he's created his legacy over a much larger sample size that one or two series.

and J... i already don't take anything you say seriously, but you really prefer a last second shot over the 47 minutes before that? so what you're saying is you prefer Robert Horry over just about any other player in the last decade.
and again, you bring up Kobe in that discussion... please go look up Kobe's stats in the 'clutch' situations. he's not nearly as good in those positions as you think he is.

 

[8893]

I do have the feeling that LeBron will not be denied this time. But if he has a bad finals again and the Heat don't win, why isn't it perfectly valid criticism to say that "he can't get it done in the clutch" and "he isn't wired like the great ones"? Until he wins a championship, that's going to dog him. And rightfully so, imo.

I believe the guy has the greatest physical skill set that God has ever given anyone who has played the game. Mentally, I'm not so sure, but it does seem like he's turned it up a notch in that respect. I don't like the guy and I root against him for various reasons that are petty, immature, stupid and mostly personal. Pretty much just like A-Rod. But what I would really love to see is for him to rise above all that and turn into an absolute tongue-wagging, maniacally-laughing, bitch-slapping, dominating beast who just toys with people and has his way. Then I will love him.

On a related note, I'd love to see Tiger Woods embrace the bad boy image fully, wearing leather, tatts, an extreme haircut, some radical shades, etc. Make bold predictions like Ali, have a harem of babes follow him around like a posse, and totally dominate golf again, but this time basically giving the finger to everyone and everything.